Chris Becker

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Chart of the Day: Moderating GDP

To start the week off, today’s chart comes from Scotty Barber at Reuters, and shows the volatility in US GDP growth (gross domestic product), with two historical periods clearly marked. The Great Moderation from the mid 1980’s to the GFC was well-named but transitory (a fact lost on most market economists who pine for the

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Data for the Week

The local corporate earnings season rolls on this week, with Resmed the only major ASX200 company to report. This will turn into an avalanche of reports as February rolls on. The focus on local data will be the release of private sector credit figures on Tuesday, followed by building approvals on Wednesday, with trade and

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Trading Day: BHP moves on

It’s fun reading the Bloomberg quotes throughout the day, as they lag (on the free site, not the terminal) the price action considerably. Asian markets were down, up and then down throughout the day, yet each headline gave the “reason” for the former move….love it.. Anyway, onto want happened without (much) bias. The S&P/ASX 200

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Market Morning

Risk markets were mixed last night, even though the US Fed gave the green light for continued stimulus, US markets were sold off later in their sessions, with Euro markets pushing forward stronger beforehand. The rationale behind the falls was the poor new home sales data and a rise in jobless claims for the week,

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Trading Day – Banks crack!

The S&P/ASX 200 Index finished strongly today, finally turning a good open into a solid day, up 47 points or more than 1% at 4271 points. The bourse stands at the each of completing the symmetrical triangle pattern, but still needs to clear the 4300 area, climbing above the 200 day moving average for this

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Chart of the Day: Apple in your eye

Global consumer electronics leader Apple (AAPL) reported earnings last night, with Q1 earnings more than doubling, due mainly to the iPad and iPhone products. Remarkably, gross margins improved to almost 45% (what a business!) Looking past the earnings headlines numbers, what’s important from an investment strategy point of view, is how much other investors are

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Market Morning

Risk markets fell last night, as ructions over the continued debate over whether or not private bondholders should escape nearly scot-free from their bad investment choices continued, overshadowing good flash services/manufacturing PMI data from France and Germany. US corporate earnings were not disappointing, on the whole (consumers still love eating “food” at McDonald’s and using

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped again today, finishing flat on very low volume, following similar leads from overnight markets. The bourse finished down barely 1 points or 0.02% at 4224 points: The market needs to clear the 4300 area (the upper breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart and above the 200

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Market Morning

Just as I write this post, news came in that a Greek debt deal (for unsecured private bondholders) was rejected by EZ finance ministers. Risk markets were mixed last night, with the US dollar falling, gold rising alongside a resurgence in commodities, whilst Euro bourses put on gains, the US market is flat as a

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Data for the Week

The local corporate earnings season officially starts today, with GUD and Oil Search kicking off the ASX200 companies. This will turn into an avalanche of reports as February rolls on. A reminder to foreign MacroBusiness readers that Australia Day will be celebrated on Thursday locally as a public holiday. The focus on local data will

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped again today, starting the week slowly and on very low volume, with mainly positive leads from other Asian markets. The bourse finished down 14 points or 0.3% at 4225 points: As I explained this morning, the market needs to clear the 4300 area (the upper breakout of the symmetrical triangle

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Picking bottoms again

Craig James had the boffins at Commsec create an analog daily chart of the All Ords, comparing the February-March 2009 bear market bottom to the current December 2011 (incorrectly shown as 2010) to January 2012 daily period. The implication is that the current period is analagous to the Feb-Mar 2009 bottom, which then preceded to

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Weekend Links

Markets: Dollar: $US, flat Treasuries, ore, energy down Undollar:  euro, Aussie, gold, metals, CRB grains mixed. Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index jumped on the open again today, but was slowly sold off before the 2pm turn when a flurry of bids were made, probably on positive leads from other Asian markets. The bourse finished up 24 points or 0.6% to finish at 4239 points: The market still needs to clear the 4300

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Chart of the Week: Deleveraging

We end the week with 2 charts from a recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute “Debt and deleveraging”, which provide elegant snapshots of “progress” of debt and deleveraging by the 10 largest “mature” global economies. The first chart (but second in the report) shows the composition of debt by country. Notably Japan is leaps

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Market Morning

Risk markets continued to rally last night, with the US dollar falling in response, although gold was subdued, as the US corporate earnings season rolls on, with good dataflow also continuning to buoy markets. In detail: The UK FTSE put on 38 points or 0.6% to finish at 5740 points, now above its resistance level

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Trading Day

A blessing of unicorns jumped across the rainbow fields of the S&P/ASX 200 Index today, but were taken out by short-statured hunters on a grassy knoll, as the market closed down 3 points to finish at 4214 points. The 4200 point level of resistance remains breached, with volume building and above the 20 day moving

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Chart of the Day: pump up the volume

Today’s chart is a study I’ve completed on volume of stocks traded on the S&P500 and ASX200 share markets. Given its still the first month of the year, it is expected that volume would be low (and hence volatility high?), with the gnawing possibility that the current rally in risk assets is nothing more than

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Market Morning

Risk markets continued to rally last night, with the US dollar falling in response, as the US corporate earnings season rolls on. In detail: The UK FTSE put on 8 points or 0.1% to finish at 5702 points, just on its resistance level at 5700 points and looking bullish. The German DAX was also up,

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Trading Day

A choppy day on the S&P/ASX 200 Index today up just 2 points to finish at 4217 points. The 4200 point level of resistance remains broken, with volume now building post NY, above the 20 day moving average (pink line in chart below), with the the next target of 4300 points to be cleared before

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Chart of the Day: Margin compression

Today’s chart comes from Ed Yardeni’s blog showing the consensus annual estimates for profit margins for companies listed on the US S&P500 index: Although revenue is climbing (but still below nominal levels pre-GFC), it is evident that margins are being squeezed at circa 10% level, as corporates have presumably completed their headcount reductions and other

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Market Morning

Risk markets were buoyed last night by the confirmation of the “soft landing = stimulus coming” meme embedded in the Chinese GDP print, where the Shanghai Composite eventually closing up more than 4%, with a successful Spanish debt auction helping Euro markets. US markets then played catch up (for once) reacting positively to the very

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Trading Day: banking on a rally

Asian markets have all reacted favourably to Chinese Q4 GDP numbers with a surprise result of 8.9% y-o-y, although quarterly was 2% growth, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index leading the charge, bid up all day to finish up 1.5% or 63 points to 4210 points. The 4200 point level of resistance has thus been broken,

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Chart of the Day: Bye bye PC

Today’s chart comes from Horace Dediu, via Business Insider showing PC sales, including smart phone devices, heritage sales and of course, the Mac: Note this is a semi-log scale, so the rise in smart phone and tablet (only shows the ridiculously named iPad) sales is extraordinary – saturation point coming? Personally, I’ll wait another few

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Market Morning

Risk markets were mixed last night as the S&P downgraded the EFSF, almost 2 billion Euro in French government bond debt was successfully sold, yet Portugese 10 year yields jumped to 14.4% from 13%, as it was downgraded to junk. US markets were closed due to a public holiday, but Q4 corporate earnings expectations are

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Trading Day

The funk from the Atlantic reached Asian markets, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index down over 1% or nearly 50 points to 4147 points today. The 4200 point level of resistance remains key, and the market is pushing back at any attempts to clear over this level, whilst in the intermediate, a bearish pennant has formed:

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Market Morning

The luck for risk ran out on Friday the 13th, when S&P downgraded most of Europe (except golden haired boy Germany, who has done nothing wrong….) and US corporate earnings continued to, not disappoint, but underwhelm, particularly the banks. In detail: The UK FTSE dropped 25 points or 0.5% to finish at 5636 points, still

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Data for the Week

The data and announcements season picks up apace, particularly local data with a triple bogey – housing finance, lending finance and unemployment figures amongst other secondary, but important data. Further afield, the US corporate earnings season accelerates along with a brace of household data on Friday and tentative Chinese GDP figures will be closely watched.

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Chart of the Week: Global Inflation

The chart of the week comes from Scott Barber at Reuters, showing global inflation rates across the major economic areas from 2000 to 2011: At first glance, Chinese inflation looks remarkably like the rises and falls in the Shanghai Composite Index, and at 4.1% is at a very “Western” level of inflation. For reference, here