Chris Becker

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Trading Day – Risk on again?

The S&P/ASX 200 Index jumped almost 2% today on rumor of another European bailout and following 6 down sessions in a row for “undollar” assets. The market closed 73 points or 1.8% higher to 4058 points, creating a “bullish engulfing candle” with very short term support at 3985 points and overhead resistance at 4150 points:

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Chart of the Day: Market whipsaw

Today’s chart comes from Econompic and highlights the nasty sideways motion in equity and related markets around the world, through the prism of monthly returns on popular ETF (Exchange Traded Funds that allows investors exposure to an index): The most volatile ETF is Emerging Markets (EM) Equities showing ca. 15% each month through September, October

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Next Week

It’s a very important week locally and international for data next week. Locally the data flow builds up again, with the RBA likely to put a keen eye over retail trade and building approvals on Thursday, whilst weighing up whether to cut or stay steady next month. Overseas, all eyes will be on PMI numbers,

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell below 4000 points for the first time since October 5th, closing down 59 points or 1.5% to 3984 points today.. The index has now wiped out all the gains from the October rebound rally, with the short, medium and long term trends all pointing down, with the market approaching the

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Wherefore art thou bulls?

The Australian share market opened 1% or 40 points down on the open and has now extended those losses into lunch, down over 1.5%, falling below the psychologically important level of 4000 points. It’s since rallied back some (the chart below will update during the session) The question is why? On a daily basis, without

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Chart of the Day: Smoking Gun

If ever there was a smoking gun chart to try to explain to the lay economic reader (and those who cling to the failed paradigm), the fundamentals behind systemic risk, the Household Debt Service Ratio (DSR) is it. For Australia, its looks like this: Bill Mitchell recently posted on his blog an exhaustive analysis of

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index eventually closed down 6 points or 0.17% lower to 4044 points today, after a relatively volatile day that saw the market diverge from overnight market directions. The index is still below short term resistance at 4150, which previously had been support, with the short, medium and long term trends pointed down,

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Chart of the Day: US unemployment woes

Today’s chart comes from ShadowStats (h/t Velociraptor), and documents the change in unemployment since the GFC. Similarly to the ABS, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has an interesting methodology in compiling its measures of unemployment, which has narrowed over time. The broadest and most publicised measure is the U-3, when in fact U-6, which includes short-term

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 82 points or 2% lower to 4051 points today, confirming yesterday’s falls through significant support at 4150, with the next target at 3850-3900 points. The market reacted to poor PMI numbers from China as the falls on overnight markets were modest. The S&P500 lost 0.4% whilst the UK FTSE

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In super, the tortoise always wins

We all bemoan the state of our super when we open our statements each year particularly given the rolling ongoing crises that beset the share market. Yet the common wisdom is to always look to the long term and eschew focusing on the short term gyrations. You’ve likely heard that to fund your retirement, your

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 30 points or 0.73% lower to 4133 points today after falling through the significant support level at 4150 points. The local bourse followed the overnight markets, if not in magnitude, then certainly in direction, as the S&P500 lost nearly 2% whilst the UK FTSE and German DAX each fell

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Chart of the Day: Oil is oil

Today’s chart plots the widely quoted West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) price against the ICE Brent Crude price since the early 2009 low following the GFC (non-Australian readers call this the Great Recession) The chart shows the recent divergence, whereby the former corrected alongside other “undollar” assets, whilst ICE Brent remained resilient has now closed,

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 14 points or 0.34% lower to 4163 points today after bouncing off support at 4150 points, remaining in a tight trading range. In after hours trading, index futures are steady, with Euro and US markets pointing to lower opens between 0.5 and 1% down. Asian markets had a slightly

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Fearful Symmetry warns on Indian economy

A month ago Fearful Symmetry bemoaned the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) “late cycle tightening zeal”, particularly the lack of respect shown to a possible negative financial shock combined with a domestic slowdown in India that “should be trusted” to bring inflationary pressures to bear in 2012. This month, Fearful Symmetry clarifies the reality that is

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Chart of the Day: Gold is running out of time?

Today’s chart comes from the McClellan Market Report (via Pragmatic Capitalism) and implies that the secular bull market in gold has several more years of outperformance over the equity market. Using this Dow Jones to Gold ratio, the previous two secular bull markets where gold dominated were of 13 to 14 years duration and occurred

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Next Week

What’s coming up next week in terms of data releases, announcements both locally and overseas? It’s actually a relatively quiet week, with local releases limited to National Accounts and construction data, whilst overseas, the US and UK release quarterly GDP figures. The US has Thanksgiving Holiday on Thurdsay and wake up the next day to

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 81 points or nearly 2% lower to 4177 points today. In after hours trading, the index has slipped slightly, with Euro markets pointing to lower opens. Asian markets followed suit, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1% to 8392 points, the Hang Seng losing 1.93% to 18455 and the Shanghai

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Chart of the Day: Euro probability

Today’s chart effectively sums up the Euro crisis in a fairly easy to understand flowchart and comes from Pictet’s Christophe Donay (via ZeroHedge): Although it doesn’t provide a probable timeline, the chart is illustrative, if a little optimistic in my opinion of the weighted probabilities. A fiscal union – the logical choice, but a cultural

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 10 points or 0.25% higher to 4258 points today. In after hours trading, the index is down a 13 points, with Euro and US markets pointing to mixed opens. Asian markets had a mixed day, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up slightly by 0.19% to 8479 points, the Hang Seng

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Margin lending collapses

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the September 2011 margin lending statistics (D10) today (but have not released household finance data (B21), which was scheduled at the same time). I’ve covered this data previously, as it is one of the sub-factors in my macro model for the Australian share market, as I explained then:

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Chart of the Day: Gold at $2000 AUD oz?

Today’s chart is inspired by a conversation with the The Bullion Baron’s whose blog has been successful in forecasting the price of gold – but in AUD instead of the oft-quoted price in USD. The dynamics between the USD, the AUD and gold are interesting, to say the least. We have seen how risk assets

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Trading Day: slipping away…

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 38 points or 0.9% lower to 4247 points today. In after hours trading, the index is down a few points, with Euro and US markets pointing to lower opens. Asian markets had a similar day, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 also down 0.9% to 8463 points, the Hang Seng losing

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Chart of the Day: (P)IIGS share prices

Today’s chart comes from Dr Ed Yardeni’s blog, comparing the performance of the (P)IIGS (Portgual, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) share market indexes (Portugal is not included) for the year so far: Greece is obviously the worst performer, down 48% with Italy not doing so bad, but still in bear market territory down over 20%. How

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Tackle risk for super returns

Yesterday SuperRatings issued its September results for Australian superannuation funds. September continued the poor performance of this year, with year to date returns for a balanced fund of minus 4.88%. Eighty percent of investors have their super in a balanced fund so the pain is widespread. It doesn’t get much better when we look at

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 19 points or 0.44% lower to 4285 points today, after reacting to the falls on EU and US risk markets last night. In after hours trading, the index is up a few points, with Euro and US markets pointing to mixed opens. Asian markets had a worse day, with

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Chart of the Day: Gold stalls

Like all other risk assets, gold (in USD per ounce) has rallied since the late October low, moving from $1600 to nearly $1800 an ounce. Today’s chart shows a likely repeat of the September rebound move from the August correction in gold, as it hits significant psychological resistance at $1800 USD per ounce: A technical

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 8 points or 0.2% higher to 4304 points today, after jumping in the morning session on reaction to the solid gains on EU and US markets on Friday night. In after hours trading, the index is slipping, with Euro and US markets pointing to slightly higher opens. Asian markets

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Chart of the Day: Bear market recap

After reading my report on the Aussie share market, as you still not sure what a secular bear market is? Would you be surprised that the US share markets are 11 years in to a secular bear market? (whereas our own is only 4 years old) Today’s chart comes from Doug Short’s weekly update of

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Next Week

With the ongoing now Italian led European crisis, and following the possible start of a new easing cycle in rates by the RBA, what’s coming up next week in terms of data, announcements and the like? Locally, Lending finance figures on Monday plus building approvals will be scrutinised and overseas, GDP and CPI figures from

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 52 points or 1.2% higher to 4296 points today, after a sideways morning session followed by strong bids in the afternoon. In after hours trading, the index has fallen 10 points, with Euro and US markets are pointing to modestly higher opens. Asian markets had a mixed but generally