Chris Becker

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Links 20th April: Jinks and Spanish bonds

Stuff Reynard the Fox found interesting today, when he finally got out of his Den. For overview of markets and macro data check out Macro Morning. Global macro:  IMF and China are new best friends FT Alphaville This correlated world – great charts here from HSBC via FT Alphaville explaining risk-on/risk-off Growth in military spending The Economist

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Trading Day – Telstra is calling

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. A very mixed day on Asian share markets, with smattering of green and red everywhere. China markets down,

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Land sales weak as prices remain high

The Housing Industry Assocation (HIA) and RP Data have put out their latest residential land update for 2012 this morning. It’s not pretty reading, as it shows land sales “hitting a fresh low and median land values rising further in the December 2011 quarter.” In other words, a supply squeeze with a likely price shock to

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Chart of the Day: inflation shock

Today’s chart comes via History Squared, and shows the pace of inflation in the last monetary crisis, when the US moved from a declining gold bullion system to a fiat, or modern monetary system. The decline was during the 1960’s as the Vietnam War, apart from its colossal human toll, also took a large toll

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Macro Morning

  Macro Wrap A relatively quiet night, with only a few data releases for markets to react to, or journalists to pin normal noise on. The release of the Bank of England (BOE) minutes caused a stir, with inflation – previously forecasted to fall back to 2% but now above 3.5% – mounting concern, particularly

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Trading Day – MQG stairway to heaven

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. A very bullish day on Asian markets, which accelerated in the post-lunch afternoon trading session, with Chinese markets

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Dividends for bulls and bears

In this post I want to compare the difference in dividends in a secular bull and bear market, using the Japanese Nikkei 225 and Australian All Ords Index, where an example of each condition occurred over roughly the same period. Here’s the chart of nominal performance of the indices, where the secular differences are stark

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Housing melt claims Genworth IPO

Genworth have announced a “new timing” for its planned IPO (initial public offering) of its Australian mortgage insurance business. The release, which is attached below, claims the move, planned for the second quarter of 2012 but now pushed back to “early 2013” reflected “recent business performance in Australia”: For the 2012 first quarter, the company

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Westpac Leading Index: growth below trend

For the sixth month in a row, the growth rate of Westpac’s Leading Index, released earlier this morning, has been below trend. Westpac contend this is consistent with a GDP growth rate of 3% in 2012, although I think this is more of a lagging forecast, than leading, given the race to surplus. The annualised

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Commodities Daily

Courtesy of ANZ – find the full report below the excerpt: Newcastle coal front month futures slipped with activity quieter than usual, as most market participants attend China’s CoalTrans (CT). In one presentation, BHP said China’s coking coal demand is expected to remain resilient to 2025, supported by capital and infrastructure spending in its steel

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Macro Morning

  Macro Wrap A slew of data releases, the release of IMF economic forecasts and successful peripheral European debt auctions gave markets the energy to whip themselves out of the current dip. Chronologically, we had the EU release its harmonised CPI figure, that showed inflation ticked up a notch in March, then US housing starts

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Trading Day – no ones going to RIO

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. Asian markets started fairly well this morning before the midday trade in China moved most quote screens into

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Tea leaf reading of RBA Minutes

In case you’ve missed it, the RBA released its Minutes from its most recent board meeting this morning, and as usual, the punditry scoured through the document before opining on “certain” rate cuts. Here’s a selection of comments, analysis and thoughts from the mainstream crowd. First the reaction from CBA Economics, focusing on the jobs

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RBA Minutes

Here are the full minutes from this month’s interest rate decision – where they held at 4.25% – by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with a Wordle of the text above:   International Economic Conditions Members noted that the growth rate of the world economy was expected to be at a below-trend pace in

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Buying and renting in the USA

I came across this chart on Bloomie this morning: its their Rent to Price Index, which compares the median asking sales price vs asking rent. It’s sourced from the US Census Bureau and also includes a housing affordability index, which I’ve removed because I want to ask some questions about the dynamic between renting and

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Macro Morning

  Macro Wrap It was looking like a shaky night on world markets again last night, but a key data release saved the day! Spanish debt raced off sharply, with the 10 year yield quickly surpassing 6%, before the release of EU Trade figures, which showed an uptick, although Italian trade again faltered. It was

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Is super for saving or speculating?

APRA recently released its latest annual results on the performance (for year ending June 2011) of non-self managed superannuation funds, i.e the retail, industry and corporate super funds, which represent about 2/3rds of total superannuation “savings”. Strikingly, the value and number of self-managed super funds (SMSF) has increased, the latter by 7.2% whilst the remaining

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Trading Day: the return of Telstra?

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. Not much

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The cleanest of dirty shirts

What have Australian government bonds been doing and what’s likely to happen once  the federal government returns to surplus, as planned? For context, here is how the 10 year bond yield has performed in the last 5 years (click here for a very long term study): Just a reminder, when bond yields fall, the actual

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Chart of the Day: stock returns by country

Today’s chart comes from Bespoke Investments and tracks the current year to date (YTD) performance of nearly 80 equity markets around the world, in a heat map fashion. The so-called BRICS are highlighted in blue, whilst G-7 nations are boxed: A word of caution. These figures are not adjusted for inflation – check out the

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Data for the Week

A relatively quiet week in local data, whilst pundits will scrutinise the minutes from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) last meeting to hold rates,  you shouldn’t gloss over the lending finance figures today, or building/construction activity. Industrial production numbers continue internationally, whilst significant primary and secondary data is released in the US later in

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Thus spake The Bernank

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made a speech on Friday (US time) on “Rethinking Finance”, reproduced in full below. The “Wordle” cloud above was published on Zero Hedge where it was pointed out that QE3 – or its more technical term called “milky wilkies” for traders and institutions – was not hinted at…. By the

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Macro Morning

  Macro Wrap After the Chinese GDP “miss” on Friday, the dataflow that night comprised two tranches: some European industrial production and inflation figures and US consumer figures, including CPI and sentiment, before a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. German CPI was bang on consensus – 0.3% for March , 2.1% year on year

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Trading Week

So where have the markets gone this week? Past the daily noise and headlines, this weekly chart heavy post will examine the major markets (debt, commodities and currencies) with the Australian investor in mind. Well its been another very interesting week on macro markets, I think summarised best by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge: Oh if

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Weekend Links

Global Macro:  Another great presentation from Richard Koo Business Insider Why US military needs Taiwan The Diplomat Bottom for Aussie dollar? Dragonfly Cap And btw, why all the coverage of Bob Brown retiring but bugger all on Asia-Pacific issues yesterday MSM? United States: Does fracking lead to earthquakes? Bloomberg No recession ahead just cooling Prag Cap good

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Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. In a

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Reserve Bank of ANZ raises rates

The ANZ has independently raised its rates by 6 basis points (0.06%) “reflecting continued pressures on the cost of deposits and wholesale funding”. This lifts the banks new standard variable mortgage rate to 7.42% putting them above NAB (at 7.31%) and CBA (7.41%) but still below WBC at 7.46% This chart accompanies the release (find

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Majority see house price stability

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index was released today, slipping 2.3pts from 25.1 in January to 22.8 in April.  The major takeaway item – apart from the insanity around this watching of a consumption item turned into a speculative frenzy – is that majority of survey respondents thought that house prices would be either

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China GDP at 8.1%

Official Chinese statistics have just been released, with real GDP (gross domestic product) for the first quarter, alongside industrial production and retail sales. Here are the quick snapshots: Quarter on quarter GDP rose 1.8%, was expected to rise 1.9% (last quarter was 2%) Year on year GDP rose 8.1%, was expected to rise 8.4% (last