Chris Becker

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Gold: This Time is Different

Asset markets are effectively all the same: housing, shares, commodities, FX, precious metals, pork bellies and interest rates. They are all markets for speculators to trade, investors to get a return of and on their money and sheep to think they can buy and hold (or negative gear) forever. As I’ve said before, gold in

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 is down almost 1% to 4755 points from a 4971 point high on the 11th April, a 4.3% total loss in the current dip. Momentum and other technical indicators continue to be very negative. The small short-lived Easter rally looks like being the “dead cat bounce” as part of an overall correction

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Westpac “boring”

WBC released its 2011 Interim Results today. Below is a brief summary of the key figures along with select graphs taken from the broker presentation. Profit Reported Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) was up 14% to $3.961 billion with growth in cash earnings of 8% with all divisions (incl. NZ) experiencing growth. Similarly to ANZ,

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 is down over 1%, or 51 points at 4773 at 1pm AEST, below support at 4800 points. Momentum and other technical indicators are very negative as this broad selloff continues to hit all sectors. Three consecutive closes below the 15 day moving average are indicative of a correction pattern, but medium term

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Trading Day

Midday Summary The market is continuing a broad selloff, as the major constituents across all sectors are down after midday. The ASX200 is down almost 0.75% and is teetering below support at 4800 points. Momentum and other technical indicators are negative but not conclusive of a broad correction as this is likely to be a

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Australian Share Market Weekly Wrap

Summary The S&P/ASX200 finished the week 90 points lower, or 1.83 per cent to 4,823 points on Friday. After a sideways move around the 4875 point level, the market experienced a broad sell off on Friday. The market is now back to its pre-Japan/MENA correction pause level, with support at 4800 points. Curiously, the correlation

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Trading Day 29th April

Midday Summary The market opened down sharply this morning, but on a positive lead from Wall Street, which is curious. Support at 4875 points is currently broken, with the 63 day moving average the next level of support (4800 points). Momentum is now negative but not conclusive – I would consider this part of another

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Trading Day 28th April

Yesterday’s inflation figures weighed heavily on the market as it dropped almost 1%, but found support at the pre-Easter opening level (4870). Overnight, news from The Bernank that everything is fine, but its not, so we will continue to stimulate, rallied all risk markets (except silver), and the Aussie market has opened up on digestion

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Trading Day – 27th April

Summary After peaking sharply on the open, the market has settled slightly up after the almost week long Easter/ANZAC break, at 4918 points. NOTE: as I was compiling this report, the PPI figures came out and the market has sunk over 20 points after midday. The short term trend remains weak but positive on momentum,

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Trading Day 21st April – green across the board

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index (and others) Its green across the board: all stocks, futures and commodities are up and gold has surpassed $US1500 and change – but paradoxically

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Trading Day: 20th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 has bounced back slightly this morning on reflated overseas markets, up 0.7% around midday. As I said yesterday, the market

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Trading Day: 19th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 has fallen substantially this morning and continues into midday trading, hovering around 4800 points. This is now well below its

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Gold to break through $US1500 an ounce?

Gold looks like breaking through the $US1500 an ounce level in overnight trading. This new nominal historic high comes as no surprise due to the metals relentless march upwards in a primary bull market that has lasted 10 years. What is surprising is golds recent correlation with all other risk assets (e.g equity markets, commodities

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Trading Day: 18th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is subdued this morning, just above 4850 points. The market is hovering just below its 15 day moving average and decelerating.

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Weekly market analysis

Australian Market Summary The S&P/ASX200 index closed the week at 4852 points, slipping a further 0.66% on Friday, going down for the fourth day in a row. Overnight action in the US and EU supports a theory that this is just a dip, with the Dow rallying almost 0.5% and the FTSE 100 up over

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Trading Day: 15th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to yesterday’s or earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is down 16 points to 4867. The market is hovering above its 15 day moving average and slowly decelerating.

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Trading Day: 14th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to yesterday’s or earlier notes that I’ve made. S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is down 44 points to 4867. Leighton (LEI) is weighing on the market after plunging 15% on the open. I see nearly a wall of red on my quote screen. The market is

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Bulls are in charge as the bears hibernate

Risk markets look like completing their “dip” overnight, with the US markets up slightly (NASDAQ up 0.6%), Euro markets up strong from 0.36% (Italian) to over 1% (German DAX) and our own market up 0.25% through to the Hang Seng (HK) up 0.66%. As I mentioned in a recent post, dips occur within rallies, and

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Trading Day: 13th April

S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is down 5 points to 4893 after a bouncy opening session. The banks are holding up the resources as the risk-trades start to wind back a little. There is weak support at the psychological important 4900 level, but I would apply caution as overnight markets (e.g Dow, SP500, FTSE

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Trading Day: 12th April

S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is down over 1 percent or 50 points to 4920 (update: 1pm EST) after weak overnight action. The V-shaped rebound is slowing down, as exuberance gives way to reality. Winners AMP: still overbought, but bids keep coming. ANZ: uptrend is not slowing down! Consensus rules – banks are back.

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Silver’s Unrelenting March Higher

Another great guest post from The Bullion Baron. The current Silver rally is exhilarating. Even as I write this the chart I’ve used below is basically out of date with Silver having soared higher to almost US$42 during Asian trade today, only around $8 below it’s all time nominal high of $50 set in January

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Trading Day: 11th April (updated)

I will be providing this trading update on the ASX100 daily at noon. Winners AMP: overbought in the short term, but accelerating in the medium term after a rounding bottom. BTFD ANZ: uptrend is slowing down. Watch for acceleration on external market rallies. BHP-Billiton (BHP) up up and away. Becoming overbought in the short term.

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Weekly Markets Analysis: 8th April

Lots of charts to look at today, first the usual fractal look at the Australian market, and then a quick look at the major components of my “Crashlist”. This is a select list of equity, FX and PM markets that I watch each evening as they open and analyse each morning before the Australian market

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Troubles with Fund Management – An Absolute Return View

This is a reply to Rotten Apple’s post about the “trouble” with the Australian fund management industry. The author of this article is a co-founder of an Australian-based private investment company, Empire Investing, and a former financial adviser and portfolio manager for a boutique financial services company. It’s all Absolutely Relative
 Let me start with

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Weekly Market Analysis – 1st April 2011

Conceal me what I am, and be my aid For such disguise as haply shall become The form of my intent. Shakespeare Summary Stocks rallied hard last night on the US and European markets after – well, choose your reason and stick to it really. Jobs? Corporate profits? No new meltdown? Cow mutilations are up?

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Gold moves to next bubble phase?

Investing and speculating in gold is almost as emotive a subject as residential property, so I’ll try to keep this short and sweet. I treat physical gold as a “Type Zero” security asset, a small insurance hedge against financial instability – a “Minsky Metal”. (I will publish an article regarding my research into the “Minsky

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Telstra – still a telegraph pole stock

The Future Fund announced recently that is has reduced its holding in Telstra (TLS) to below 5%, and is still selling. Future Fund, I salute you. TLS is still a telegraph pole stock – as in, any sane, rational investor shouldn’t touch it with a ten foot or even a telegraph pole. In this post,

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Weekly Market Analysis: Risk is up!

The S&P/ASX200 index closed 0.91 per cent higher to 4,742.6 points on Friday, after a strong rebound rally. The index is up 116 points or 2.5% for the week, but still down 1.75% since the start of March and no movement at all for the year. For a primer on how I do my analysis,

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Gold: Global currencies and demand

Guest post from The Bullion Baron An interesting article was posted on Mineweb earlier this week comparing the performance of Gold over several currencies. The 4 currencies it was compared in were the US Dollar, Renminbi, Indian Rupee and Euro. With the growth of three tied so closely it was almost just a comparison of

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Research Bonds

My fellow equities blogger Sell on News recent excellent post gave an credible rationale on why property has become the No.1 investment option for Australians – purely by default. This post will go over a very “beta” version of an idea I had awhile back in how to arrest the problem of an insufficient base