Chris Becker

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed 55 points or 1.3% lower to 4298 points after popping above positive territory at lunch. In after hours trading, the index is down another 15 points, with Euro and US markets pointing to similar losses. Asian markets experienced similar losses, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.16% at 9036 points, the

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Chart of the Day: Don’t fly with me

The share price of Qantas (QAN) over the long term? Doesn’t fly with me as a good investment. Old saying – “don’t invest in airline whose competitors are government owned and cheap labour force” can be backed up by another saying – “don’t invest in company that requires gargantuan capital investment to generate below term

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Trading Day: bull trap?

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed 5 points or 0.1% higher to 4353 points after a very solid open was sold off during the day. In after hours trading, the index is steady, with Euro and US markets pointing to slightly lower or steady opens after the frivolity of last night. Asian markets outperformed, with Japan’s

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Chart of the Day: Euro M1 uptick

The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its monetary aggregrate data for September and it makes interesting reading after the Greek bailout package announced yesterday. As Delusional Economics forewarned in September, the narrow M1 money supply trend remains extremely weak: Although there has been a minute uptick in M1, M3 has also picked up, but

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March 2009 redux?

Time for some perspective – in equity markets around the world, the bulls are popping champagne and hysterically bidding up anything and everything (including iron ore stocks whilst iron ore is crashing), whilst the bears have gone back into hibernation, with sore bottoms and damaged pride. The realists observe that this volatility and switch between

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Trading Day: Bedlam and Fear

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed 105 points or 2.4% higher to 4348 points after eventually opening from the bedlam at the open and absorbing the news of a “hellish” deal involving a 50% haircut on Greek bonds to European banks. In after hours trading, the index has climbed a further 20 points, with Euro and

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NAB nabs market share

The National Australia Bank (NAB) has released details of a record result today, overshadowed by the glitches on the ASX. The basic summary of the result is thus: 19.2% increase in cash profit to $5.5 billion 5.7% increase in revenue 23.6% increase NPAT of $5.2 billion 2.34% to 2.17% decrease in Net Interest Margin (NIM)

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ASX halts trading (updated)

UPDATE 4: Trading has resumed at 2PM (AEDST) , with the market up 2% above 4300 points. UPDATE 3: ASX says trading will go pre-open at 1.40PM and resume from 2PM (AEDST) UPDATE 2: ASX says trading will likely resume from 12.55 onwards. Maybe. UPDATE 1: ASX says some trading has been resumed – doesn’t

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Chart of the Day: Equity Twilight Zone

Today’s chart comes from my favourite trader, Peter L.Brandt, and explains how the US S&P500 – the equity market that equity markets follow – is stuck “between a rock and a hard place”. As he explains the technicals: the market is arguably a double bottom. The other indexes do not show a similar pattern, but

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Trading Day: CPI walking

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 14 points or 0.3% to 4242 points after dropping sharply in the morning session following broad losses on US and Euro markets on Tuesday night. In after hours trading, the index has slipped 20 points, but Euro and US markets are pointing to mixed opens. Asian markets behaved in

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ASX200 to 8000 points?

Bullish commentator Clifford Bennett was recently interviewed and restated his opinion that the ASX200 is on its way to a “100% rally”, and will end up “above 8000 points” in 2 years time. Given this forecast is also some 16% above the historic high reached on 1st November of 2007, and others have continually called

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Chart of the day: Seasonal investing

A fascinating long term study by EconomPic, building on a similar study done by The Big Picture on the seasonality of investing in US equities. The old adage, “sell in May and go away (until November)” seems to have empirical validity. Look below for my study on Australian stock prices. Using S&P data from Professor Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance

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Trading Day – almost there…

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 27 points or 0.6% to 4227 points in a wayward session coming after a positive follow up session on US and Euro markets on Monday night. In after hours trading, the index has slipped slightly, but Euro and US markets are pointing to similar losses. Asian markets were also

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Chart of the Day: Driving through recession

Today’s chart comes from Doug Short, and visualises the US Dept of Transportation figures on traffic volume. Like electricity usage, the number of kilometres (or miles for the US) driven per capita is a good indication of economic strength that cannot be filtered through the murky lens of GDP composition and hedonic reductionism. Clearly, when

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 113 points or 2.66% to 4255 points in a very positive session coming after a strong rally on US and Euro markets on Friday night. In after hours trading, the index has slipped slightly, but Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly higher opens. Asian markets were also

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Chart of the Day: Don’t cry for me Greece

Today’s chart comes from Naked Capitalism, discussing a paper regarding the remarkable recovery of Argentina post its default in December 2001. Following the default, which included removing a currency peg against the USD and subsequent devaluation, there was a severe financial crisis, with huge contraction in GDP – 11% for the year. However real GDP

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Trading Day: duck and cover

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 3 points to 4141 points in a strange session coming into the EU Meeting this weekend. In after hours trading, the index is up 10 points, with Euro and US markets pointing to slightly higher opens. Before I go on, something happened after “lunch” about 2pm today on the

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Chart of the Day: China GDP composition

Today’s chart comes from EconomPic created from the data and analysis within a recent Michael Pettis newsletter exploring the composition of Chinese GDP, whilst looking at if lower (or negative) interest rates cause higher savings. From 2001 to 2010, consumption has fallen from 45.3% to 33.8% whilst investment has increased from 34.6% of GDP to

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Trading Day: gold crunched

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 68 points or 1.66% today to 4144 points following heavy falls on commodity markets and poor leads on overnight markets. In after hours trading, the index is steady, with Euro and US markets pointing to small losses. Asian markets experienced similar moves, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1% at

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Chart of the Day: Commodities rule

Today’s chart comes from the MarketSci blog, and illustrates the increasing correlation between commodities and equities: This chart shows the 3 year monthly correlation of the S&P500 (the broadest US equity index) and the Goldman Sachs commodity index, from 1970. Although the GS Index is not as diversified as the CRB Index, the comparison is

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 27 points or 0.64% today to 4213 points following the rumor-led rise from overnight US and Euro markets. In after hours trading, the index is steady, with Euro and US markets pointing to modest opens. Asian markets experienced similar moves, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.35% at 8772 points,

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Chart of the Day: 1% income

A very illustrative chart used by a member of the 99% “Occupy Wall Street” crowd, has been captured here: The post goes on to breakdown who makes part of the US 1% crowd, and effectively it is executive managers (CEO’s) and financial professionals. For Australia, the divergence between the 1% income and average worker is

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 88.5 points or 2.11% today to 4186 points following weak leads from overnight US and Euro markets. In after hours trading, the index is down slightly, with Euro and US markets also pointing to lower opens. Asian markets experienced similar moves, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.4% at 8749

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Chart of the Day: Italian bonds

Today’s charts come from an illustrative post from TF Market Advisors (via Zero Hedge), and shows the 5 year yield on Italian bonds, the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and the spread between the former and the 5 year German Bunds: www.twitter.com/ThePrinceMB

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Trading Day: Tom Jones rally

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 69 points or 1.6% today to 4275 points following a strong finish to the week on US and Euro markets on Friday. In after hours trading, the index is down slightly, with Euro and US markets also pointing to modestly higher opens. Asian markets experienced similar moves, with Japan’s

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Chart of the Day: Markets in context

Today’s chart is part of a great series of continually updated charts by DShort at his blog here. This puts the current rally in equity markets around the world in context: the chart illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and

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Trading Day: Unreal undollar rally

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 93 points or 2.2% today to 4162 points following gains on “undollar” or non-USD risk markets around the world. In after hours trading, the index is up slightly, with Euro and US markets also pointing to strong opens. Asian markets experienced similar moves, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.25%

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Chart of the Day: Plenty of choice

Good news for Melbournians wanting to buy property, heaps to choose from with today’s chart coming from SQM Research: Here’s the latest dwelling unit commencements for Victoria from the ABS: I’m sure we’ll here more about the Melbourne property market from The Unconventional Economist soon, having done Sydney recently (all special reports are available on

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 143 points or 3.5% today to 4069 points following gains on risk markets around the world. In after hours trading, the index is off slightly, with Euro and US markets also pointing to strong opens. Asian markets experienced similar moves, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 trading up 1.4% at 8500

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Chart of the Day: Apple is iPhone

Today’s charts comes from SplatF (h/t to Kiera) and explains why the iPhone is so important to Apple’s (AAPL) bottom line: And here’s Apple’s (AAPL) share price performance rising from the mid $80 per share range to just over $400 from March 2009 to now: www.twitter.com/ThePrinceMB