The Coalition is the housing bubble’s best friend

Cross-posted from LF Economics: A fascinating aspect of the Great Australian Housing Market Bubble is that most of the price growth has occurred under LNP governments, not ALP. From 1986Q2 to 1996Q1, housing prices, adjusted for inflation and quality, increased by a paltry 9.1% over the course of the ALP government. This amounts to a


Spare capacity to weigh-down wages, inflation

By Gareth Aird, senior economist at CBA: Key Points: Spare capacity in the Australian economy continues to weigh on inflation and wages growth. Labour market slack varies across the states reflecting divergences in state final demand. Talk of rate rises is premature because there is a significant amount of spare capacity in the economy. Overview:


Westpac’s leading index retraces

From Westpac’s Bill Evans: The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell from 1.34% in January to 1.02% in February. The Leading Index continues to point to above trend growth momentum, albeit


RBA concerned about household debt, housing risks

By Gareth Aird, senior economist at the CBA: Key Points The RBA Board Minutes confirm that policy is on hold over the near term. Strong dwelling price growth and concerns around the further build-up of debt in the household sector mean that rate cuts are off the table. Market pricing implies very little chance of


The property crash we have to have?

By Martin North, cross-posted from the Digital Finance Analytics blog: In past years we have been highlighting the misaligned policy settings which have allowed home prices to balloon, household debt to soar, interest rates to slide and investors to gain more than a third of the market, higher than UK or USA. As banks have


Forget value capture. Go with a broad-based land tax

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Is “value capture” a wonderful untapped opportunity to fulfil all our infrastructure dreams? Or is it just a new way to sting the taxpayer? Our new report casts a cold, hard gaze over value capture, and finds that it’s a good tax in theory, but will prove very hard to put


Housing affordability crisis is about prices, not rents

By Lindsay David, cross-posted from the LF Economics Blog: Australia has a gigantic housing bubble, fuelled by two decades of reckless debt issuances by our deregulated, yet highly protected, banking and financial system. Indeed, the latest international data from the Bank of International Settlements demonstrates Australia has the world’s second-highly household debt to GDP ratio


How Facebook and Google changed the online ad game

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Creativity and spectacle are becoming less important than the personal information used to target ads. The sponsored links on a Google search or in your Facebook feed are very effective, but for a completely different reason than your favourite television commercial. When you think about advertising what comes to mind is


Hits and misses in Victoria’s housing reforms

By David Collyer, cross-posted from Prosper Australia: Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced a range of housing affordability measures Sunday, some of which will help. The eye-opener is the introduction of a Vacant Residential Property Tax at one per cent of the capital improved value on properties held vacant for six months or more. This mimics


The future of suburbia

By Ross Elliott “We are living in a global suburban age… While statistics demonstrate that the amount of the world population in metropolitan areas is rapidly increasing, rarely is it understood that the bulk of this growth occurs in the suburbanized peripheries of cities. Domestically, over 69% of all U.S. residents live in suburban areas;


Are digital innovation practices transferable?

By Rod van Onselen I was recently asked by an ex-colleague whether the digital innovation practices my teams have used could be applied in other industries. The question was aimed at the transferability of innovation practices into this person’s own business. But it got me thinking – can large corporates, public sector, and not-for-profit organisations


Weekend Links 27-28 February, 2016

The Wasteland II, Jeffrey Smart, 1945, Art Gallery of NSW   China As China’s Economic Picture Turns Uglier, Beijing Applies Airbrush – NY Times The Chinese chronicle of a crash foretold – Chinese central bank chief hints at more stimulus for slowing economy – SCMP Banks, Regulators Confront Slippery Bills Trade – Caixin China


Macroprudential arrives, not before time

Late yesterday APRA and ASIC released details of Australia’s new macroprudential regime: The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has today written to authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) outlining further steps it plans to take to reinforce sound residential mortgage lending practices. These steps have been developed following discussions with other members of the Council of Financial


MB Radio: Central bank bubbles

With major global market players  warning about  equities and bond bubbles and the RBA warning again about the risk of an Australian real estate bubble, Gunnamatta spoke with David Llewellyn Smith about the bubbles in play,  how they are being fuelled by global monetary policy, the likelihood and potential timeframes of “tapering”, and the likely