Links: Tuesday 17th July

Global Macro IMF cuts global growth outlook. WSJ. Europe is to blame. The US dollar is no haven from the eurozone. FT. I’ll give you a clue for what is… an island, in Asia, with a hawkish central bank… The Libor scandal continues. Guardian. Did Bob Diamond really give instructions to lower rates? Explosive. United


Links: Monday 16th July

Global Macro: Deutsche Bank gets prosecution witness status in rate probe Reuters How Jamie Dimon hid the $6 billion loss CNNMoney United States: Schedule on the week ahead CalculatedRisk US is building criminal cases in rate-fixing DealBook Weakness in the recent ISI company survey SoberLook Fed’s Lockhart on monetary policy CalculatedRisk Europe: Merkel faces revolt


Weekend links

Global Macro: Game Theory and Euro Exit – Italy before Greece, Bloomberg Golden Rules of Banking – Buttonwood, Economist What markets want, QE – but does it work. The Economist Economists are overconfident and so are you – Justin Fox HBR Blog Market Wrap from Bloomberg of overnight trade – MacroBusiness Morning will be back


Links 12 July: Fed funk

Global Macro: Deep thoughts from Jim Chanos (Pragmatic Capital) Krugman on how to end this depression (CNBC) Hedge fund withdrawals jump to highest since ’09: data (Reuters) Why we are light years away from solving our problems (Zero Hedge) Farm prices on upward trend in next decade (Reuters) OPEC sees 2013 oil demand growth slowing


10th July Links: Inefficent markets

Global Macro: U.S. Corn Growers Farming in Hell as Midwest Heat Spreads. Bloomberg. Wonder how long China’s low inflation will last? Floods meanwhile kill scores in Krasnodar. Moscow Times Krasnodar is Russia’s breadbasket and its wheat crop has already been hammered by drought and frost. Bloomberg Meanwhile on the grassy knoll: Beware! The Russians are


Centrelink payments trend upwards

Cross posted with permission from Mark the Graph: DEEWR publishes monthly data on its payments. The April data was released Wednesday. Based on this advice from Centrelink, it looks like two of these payment data series – Youth Allowance Other and New Start Total Recipients – can be added together and used as a rough


Michael Feller joins MacroBusiness

I am pleased to inform readers that former Eureka Report investment strategist Michael Feller has responded to the call of Reynard’s conch shell, joining  Macro Associates, the owner of MacroBusiness. Michael, a highly-followed equities analyst, is joining us primarily to work on other projects in the institutional markets, but as of today he will blog


Real estate industry positively negative

Cross posted with permission from Capital Appreciation: The latest Property Council of Australia (PCA) – ANZ Property Industry Confidence Survey results indicate that property professional respondents in the ACT were slightly more positive about residential property in the June 2012 quarter but they are generally negative about the overall economy. I’ve highlighted some of the charted results for the ACT


The surplus conundrum

Cross posted with permission from Mark the Graph According to today’s Australian, the Treasury has launched an investigation into why it has been overestimating company tax revenue, with forecasts of the government’s tax shortfall rising ahead of next month’s budget. So let’s have a look at the data. Every month the Department of Finance and Deregulation


Sorting out time to work

Cross posted with permission from Mark the Graph At the risk of being labeled a pedant, I will return to Matt Cowgill’s chart from which he argued that full-time employment growth has been seriously failing to keep pace with population growth. Matt’s chart is as follows: In response to my previous blog, Matt tweeted that his chart


Property ACTing up or down?

Cross posted with permission from Capital Appreciation’s blog  After several months in the wilderness, allhomes have begun publishing their short- and medium-term ACT real estate market trends again. Median house and unit prices are some of the data published by allhomes and I thought I’d take the opportunity in this post to reproduce some of these data below. Although


Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession

Cross posted with permission from Mark the Graph: I have been enjoying Richard C Koo’s, The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession, published in 2008 by John Wiley and Sons. Koo’s thesis is simple: there are two types of recession. In your standard ‘credit crunch’ recession the problem is an insufficient money supply.


Canberra job losses will cut into house prices

Cross posted with permission from Capital Appreciation – will this also apply further afield, with public sector job losses mooted in Queensland? Yesterday’s Canberra Times article on the federal government public service job cuts is likely to be one of many media articles covering this issue in the coming months. So far around 1500 job cuts have been


What the equity herd might look like

Cross posted with permission from Trend Trader’s blog here: Inspired by reading Professor Steve Keen’s book on ‘Debunking Economics’, this is a first pass at quantifying what many call the ‘herd’. Understanding herd mentality/crowds/group behaviour is a cornerstone to successful investing. In my (slow and winding) path of development of a better toolset for analysing


Knock down rebuild is not always a capital idea

Cross posted with permission from Capital Appreciation:  Over the past decade the knock down rebuild (or KDR) phenomenon has been very popular in Canberra and other parts of Australia. Knock down rebuild essentially involves buying and demolishing an old house on a good block, and then rebuilding your own new home. In Canberra, knock down rebuilds have spread


Morning Macro

Overnight News and Data Releases All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes (reported here by Houses and Holes), but beforehand, the European Union released its monthly Producer Price Index (PPI). Consensus was looking for only a 0.5% rise, but it came in at 0.6%, with year-on-year also higher than expected at 3.6%.


Improving the valuation of unimproved land values

Cross posted with permission from Capital Appreciation, an excellent and informative resource on ACT/Queanbeyan housing markets. View his latest post here on the trouble finding any house below $300,000 in the nations capital. Canberra property buyers, sellers and real estate agents have been obsessed with unimproved land values for many years. Canberra seems to leave


Reindustrialization of Europe

Cross-posted with permission from MacroTragedy, a Greek-based macro-analyst who you can also follow on Twitter It certainly is no secret that the west is de-industrializing fast and has been doing so for some time now. This trend has been present since the 1980s. Nonetheless, some countries, did manage to buck this trend and re-industrialized. Now


Fearful Symmetry on the Indian Budget

Time for another update from that other driver of Futureboom! In this chronicle, Fearful Symmetry reveals budgetary dilemmas, central bank  for the world’s largest democracy. India is expected to have a deficit near 6% for the 2011/12 financial year, which should improve to just over 5% next year. The government also expects real GDP growth


MacroBusiness caption

Here at MacroBusiness we are contemplating taking the campaign for world macrobation to the next level. Ok maybe not, but we are contemplating the introduction of some MacroBusiness paraphernalia in order to get Reynard the Fox some further recognition out there in the wider world. We are in the early days on this, so we aren’t


Wallis not Joyris

In recent weeks the dynamic duo of Mark Bouris and Christopher Joye of Yellow Brick Road have argued hither and thither for a dramatic shift in the rules that govern the Australian financial system. They have recently appeared in the ABC, AFR and The Australian (as well as no doubt being the secret “bankers” referred


Weekend Musing: Are Electric Cars really Green?

A guest post from reader and commenter “Pellicle” on the Electric Car. MacroBusiness welcomes interesting submissions on economic and related topics, subject to edit and less than 1500 words. Please use the “Contact” item on the menu above for your submissions. Lately it seems that with increasing frequency the idea of Electric cars comes up


Weekend Musing: Direct Democracy and Australia

Guest blogger Steven Spadijer, of Australian National University, completes his series on Direct Democracy. Part One is available here, and Part Two here. In this final post, we will be looking at how Direct Democracy protects federalism and how it might minimise the costs of a federal system. In the broader policy debate of “should


Weekend Musing: Direct Democracy and Voters

Guest blogger Steven Spadijer, of Australian National University, continues with Part Two of his series on Direct Democracy. Part One is available here. In today’s post I’ll examine the role direct democracy has on informing the people. That is, what impact does direct democracy have on the average voter competence? Does the information-rich environment make


Weekend Musing: Direct Democracy and Economics

Guest blogger Steven Spadijer presents a multi-part series on Direct Democracy to start off the Weekend Musing articles for 2012. In this first post he examines the empirical evidence, speficially the economic impact versus a “representative” democracy. The second post will confront the questions regarding the intelligence of voters, particularly the information-rich environment effect on


Summer Reading: Top charts for 2011

Today’s Summer Reading collates the most interesting and provoking charts posted on MacroBusiness throughout 2011: First we have Rumplestatskin’s chart comprising the real (adjusted for inlation) after tax – RAT – returns on term deposits for Australian investors, showing have savers have been punished for over 10 years: As The Unconventional Economist shows, this secular


Summer Reading: The Editor’s Pick

The “Editor’s Pick” distills the nearly 3000 posts made on MacroBusiness in 2011 (2977 as of December 28) into a long, but core list of around 40 articles across the main categories and issues that we cover. For newcomers, this is a great introduction to MB and a trip down memory lane for our growing


Summer Reading: Best Dressed of 2011

During the Christmas and New Years break, MacroBusiness will be opening the vault to discover the best dressed, most popular and interesting posts of 2011. Today’s “Best Dressed of 2011” list includes our favourite post titles and featured images and maybe considered whimsy, but our only excuse is that there is a little bit of


Summer Reading: The most popular posts of 2011

During the Christmas and New Years break, MacroBusiness will be opening the vault to discover the best dressed, most popular and interesting posts of 2011. According to our regular and irregular commenting crowd, here are the 10 most popular articles posted on MacroBusiness this year. The main themes that dominated were mining, then the carbon


The MB Team Discuss 2012

Before taking a break after the end of a remarkable year, the team at MacroBusiness sat down recently to share their views on the events of 2011 and the risk and opportunities that lie ahead. The discussion was framed around 5 questions with the first 3 answered in Part 1 posted yesterday, with the final