Weekend Links August 25

4 months till Christmas – yippee Global Macro: 10 Best Central Bankers in the World – Global FInance Magazine via Business Insider. Seems I was wrong the RBA is not the best but second to the Bank of Canada. UE? 😀 IMF advises delaying austerity till growth returns. Better late than never but I fear


Links 24th August

Global Macro: Violent striking at platinum mines could spread Reuters More mine delays – this time Xstrata gold/copper Reuters All the market analysis you need to understand in one chart Prag Cap Actually no this one of PMI’s is the one Scott Barber United States: Fed’s Bullard calls the FOMC minutes dullard Zero Hedge Jobless


Links for 23 August 2012

Global Macro: The Hottest Trade on Wall Street: European Stocks – The Reformed Broker Citi Expects Only Two Countries Will Have AAA Ratings In The Long Run – Business Insider Iron Ore-Contract defaults as price slides, Shanghai rebar record low – Reuters Iron ore floor becomes iron ore trapdoor – FT Alphaville United States: FRB:


Links August 21

Global Macro: Special report on Norway’s evolving national nest-egg. Financial Times The return of Dr Strangelove. Could austerity drive America towards ‘cheaper’ nuclear and cyber-based defence capabilities? The Diplomat. Interesting implications for geopolitics. Geopolitics Signs of detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran? Asia Times Signs of dependence between China and Pakistan? Business Recorder (Islamabad) United


Links 20 August 2012

Global Macro: Iron ore on alert as China cuts steel output AFR , you were warned. German FinMin: No new aid program for Greece Reuters , BusinessInsider United States: Schedule for the week ahead Calculated Risk Industrial production data’s anomaly – Decreasing energy use WallStreet Examiner US S.E.C shuts down $600 million ponzi scheme Reuters Self fulfilling prophecies Tim


Weekend Links August 18th

Global Macro: The stock market is going up – S&P puts as cheap as before the crisis started – @fedspeak Rotation in FX Land into smaller currencies – Wall Street Journal South African Mine massacre – terrible. BBC As Ryan invigorates Romney’s campaign the BBC asks “why is Ayn Rand so popular?” – here White


S&P500’s Stairway to Heaven

Courtesy of Global Macro Monitor and posted with permission: Stunning price action during these low volume dog days of August.   The market keeps marching higher and just won’t go do down to allow the under invested an opportunity to get long.  Ugh! The summer night sweats of a money manager short his/her index! Only 7 points to


Is the food spike finally hitting China?

Courtesy of Sober Look: China’s Ministry of Commerce blamed the increase in vegetable prices on “strong winds and rainfall in the country’s eastern regions” that “disrupted production and logistics.” Nevertheless vegetable prices are up 15.4% over the past four weeks. China Daily: – The wholesale prices of 18 types of vegetables in 36 cities rose


House bubble myopia: NY Fed edition

Courtesy of Mark the Graph: I am back at uni doing some study. In my research for an assignment on financial econometrics I came across this wonderful piece from December 2004. It was written by a senior economist and a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Home prices have been rising


Links 17th August

Global Macro: The economic twilight zone FT Alphaville global growth downgrades continue Metaboring – the way the market should be? Prag Cap United States: Why Quantitative Easing (QE or milky wilkies or Money for Nothing and chips for free) is not working Prag Cap Housing starts decline in July Calculated Risk Philly Fed activity down


Crude now at Euro record

Courtesy of Sober Look: Brent crude oil priced in euros hit a new high today of €94.83/barrel, exceeding the highs reached in 08 as well as early this year. Source: Bloomberg This rally has been driven by four factors: 1. The euro is down close to 15% over the past year. 2. Draghi’s “Believe me,


Links: 16 August 2012

Global Macro: For Stability’s Sake, Reform Money Funds – Bloomberg “The Mirage of Youth Unemployment” – Project Syndicate United States: The Untold Story of Municipal Bond Defaults – New York Fed Key Measures show slowing inflation in July – Calculated Risk Empire State Manufacturing Survey drops 13 points, goes negative – New York Fed US


US earnings results unmask macro reality

Cross posted with full permission from Sober Look: Analysts have been pointing out that earnings for the S&P500 companies continued to surprise to the upside for Q2 results. The top-line numbers however were not nearly as impressive. In fact this has been the lowest percentage of positive revenue surprises since at least 3Q09 (see figure 1 below). Nasdaq:


Links August 15

Global Macro: Stocks still beat bonds – Burton Malkiel in the Wall Street Journal. He’s the guy that wrote “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” – HT Business Insider Standard Chartered has agreed a $340 million fine – everyone is covering this but here is The Guardian’s take Climate Change – “That sinking feeling”. The Economist Babbage


Wonkish: LIBOR could still throw a derivatives curve ball

Courtesy and republished with full permission of Sober Look: Some academically oriented readers may get a bit upset at this statement, but most financial derivatives pricing in practice comes down to this basic formula. The net present value (NPV) of a derivatives contract can be expressed as a sum of expected cash flows (C), weighted


Links August 14

Global Macro: As the world looks at Iran, the Niger Delta remains an oily, dangerous mess. The Economist Facebook’s not the only silicon superstar to struggle: Groupon staff fell the heat. Wall Street Journal Tired of burgernomics or the lipstick index? Meet the vixen index. Investment Postcards Geopolitics: Egypt’s president replaces army heads, asserts authority.


Links August 13

Global Macro: Former Barclays trader “has cooperated” with Libor probe Reuters US may help create Syrian no-fly zone, Coene says BusinessWeek Apologetic Swiss banks sweat it out as US, Europe mull redress Reuters United States Schedule for the week ahead Calculated Risk Standard Chartered said to agree to NY monitor demand Bloomberg US Justice department


New company registrations still strong

Courtesy of Mark the Graph: Yesterday, the Barking Cat asked me to have a look at ASIC’s new company registrations. Unsurprisingly, the raw data displays strong seasonality. Applying the standard R seasonal decomposition of time series by loess package, we can derive a seasonally adjusted and trend perspective for each state and nationally.    


Links August 10

Global Macro: Moment of truth for US grain. Financial Times We have a food crisis: UN Reuters as global food reserves drop Bloomberg Moment of truth for global monetary policy. Economist Free Exchange Moment of truth for world economic growth. Dani Rodrik in Project Syndicate  Geopolitics Could Iran court the Taliban to bolster its options? The Diplomat


Links 9th August

Global Macro: How Google Can Avert the Next Financial Crisis (Bloomberg) Fisher Says More Stimulus May Overburden Central Banks (Bloomberg) United States: CoreLogic Home Prices Climb as Supply Dwindles (Wall Street Journal) The economic impact of a slight increase in house prices (Calculated Risk) Banks’ Liquidity Hinges on Risky Assets ( Was That A False


ZIRP carries significant costs for US households

Courtesy and full permission of SoberLook: Ben Bernanke (Reuters): “Interest rates are low because our economy is still in a fragile recovery,” Bernanke told a town hall meeting in Washington with educators. “Lower rates are intended to restore more normal levels of employment and growth.” That may be true, but on average a prolonged low


Links 8th August

Global Macro: Convertibility risk: Acknowledged by not addressed Yanis Varoufakis Gross to Investors: Stay away from Europe CNBC Taiwan’s July exports: dismal BeyondBrics German factory orders fall twice as much as forecast Bloomberg Rice hoard offers world respite as food costs surge Bloomberg United States Housing inventory down 23% YoY in August Calculated Risk Weekly


Links 7th August

Global Macro: The economic crisis will solve itself, climate change won’t. Financial Times. I agree. July “was the only month in the last 400 in which European stocks, the German 10-year bund and gold rallied by more than 2.5%.” BCA Research via Buttonwood But with Draghi keeping his powder dry, is Europe turning Japanese? Economist


Links 6th August

Global Macro: Iran’s economic crisis escalates SoberLook Italy doesn’t need German cash, Monti tells Germans Reuters Spain has time to wait for clarity on EU aid; economy Minister Reuters United States: Schedule for week ahead Calculated Risk Update: Recovery measures Calculated Risk Top companies paid 9% U.S tax rate NerdWallet Why Washington accepts mass unemployment NY mag


Links 2 August

Global Macro:  Strategists Most Bearish on Equities since 1985 (The Big Picture) North America: US Treasury Office of Debt Management August Chart Pack US July PMI 51.4, down but still indicates slow growth  (Business Insider) Private Employment increased 163,000 in July (Calculated Risk) Gauging the Triggers to Fed Action (Wall Street Journal) ISM Manufacturing index


Links 31st July

Global Macro: Where Doug Kass is bullish and bearish. Barron’s The collapse of the Assad regime could be a regional game changer. The Diplomat The resulting power vacuum could also be a game changer for Kurdish aspirations. BBC Not to mention Putin’s. Russia defies EU Syrian arms sanctions. Moscow Times United States: Japan Airlines looks


Links 30th July

Global Macro: Euro Crisis heads for September crunch Reuters Did the Germans agree ? FT Lesson’s from the Fed’s 1932 mistake Gavyn Davies Hedge funds going mutual Barrons United States: Schedule for week of July 29th Calculate Risk Fed governor speaks out for stronger rules Baseline scenario Europe: Open Europe warns Spanish bailout ‘impossible’ Telegraph


Links 26 July 2012

Global Macro: Former UBS chief doubts criminal intent over Libor (Reuters) Libor design flawed says Geithner (BBC News) Since 2012 Is 2011, What Comes Next Is Not Pretty…(Zero Hedge) North America: Break Up the Big Banks (CNBC) Sales of New U.S. Homes Unexpectedly Fall From Two-Year High (Bloomberg) The U.S. Debt Load: Big and Cheap


Links 24th July

Global Macro: Dow tumbles 101.11 points. Wall Street Journal But oil services firms are booming. The Economist. Next week Macro Investor will be presenting some different ideas about mining services. Capital expenditure versus the capitalist executive. Buttonwood. Some intriguing findings about corporate governance and incentives. Violence flares again in Iraq. Voice of America Should we


Links 23rd July

Global Macro Relentless rise in food prices already showing up in inflation indicators SoberLook Libor arrests coming Reuters European Parliament head fears ‘social explosion’ France24 IMF economist accuses fund of suppressing information Reuters. His resignation letter here Meanwhile, they’re reported to be thinking about pulling the plug on Greece Ekathimerini , DW The ECB already has, again