QE4 on the cards?

Cross posted from The Short Side Of Long blog by Tiho Brkan, discussing price movements of different asset classes, from stocks to bonds, currencies to commodities and everything else in between, including a bit of alternative assets at times as well.  My last post covered the QE4 rumours in circulation, so today I thought I’d gauge the sentiment


Links December 4

Global Macro Pension funds invest too much in bonds, but for more than one reason. Buttonwood News International chief quits, Murdoch empire set to split. Telegraph Delta to buy Singapore’s stake in Virgin Atlantic? As asked recently in Macro Investor, are airline wars heating up? DealBook Why shale success is unlikely to be replicated outside


Links November 27

Global macro: Fresh from negotiating the Gaza ceasefire, Egypt goes up in flames. The Economist And the conspiracy theories get started on Iran and Argentina. Fistful of Euros Speaking of which, here’s how Iran could disrupt world oil supplies next month. Meanwhile, the first LNG ship to cross the arctic completes its journey. BBC.


Links November 20

Global macro: Bond markets providing a false sense of security. Financial Times. Fixing the world starts with fixing our economic measurements. Quartz Netanyahu calls Obama’s bluff. M K Bhadrakumar Indeed, Obama’s path to Xanadu runs via Jerusalem. Edward Luce. The road from East to West always runs through the Middle. Robert Kaplan meanwhile warns not


Links November 13

Global Macro Impact investing forecast to double. FTfm Speaking of impact, micro equity proposed where micro loans fail. McKinsey Moscow urges direct US-Iran talks. Financial Times As Syrian opposition groups strike deal in Qatar. Reuters Meanwhile, UN urges restraint in the Golan Heights. Jerusalem Post Gold bug alert: China could boost holdings. Bloomberg United States


Links October 30

Global Macro ExxonMobil flexes its geopolitical muscles. Quartz An information diet for the 2012 election. BigThink. We spoke about the election and information diets in this week’s Macro Investor. Do we live in the golden age of investing? MintLife North America Frankenstorm may have shut the NYSE, but US money markets return to the Eurozombie.


Links 25 October 2012

Global Macro: Hedge Funds Belt Few Home Runs – Wall Street Journal Today’s deficit cut could hurt tomorrow’s growth – AFR North America: Canadian house prices dip -0.4% in September but up 3.6% YoY – Teranet Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement – Federal Reserve White House seeks removal of Fannie regulator – Financial Times Federal


Links October 23

  Global Macro Is money just… nothing? Noahpinion Is government… not a household? Naked Capitalism Are we ready for a Keynesian utopia? John Quiggin North America The lost world of George McGoven. New York Times The US bright spot. FT Alphaville QE3, as reflected by MBS on the Fed’s balance sheet. Sober Look Ottawa’s rejection


Links 18 October 2012

Global Macro: What will replace the globalization model? – Washington Post Back to Wartime Debt Levels – The Big Picture As Global Economy Sags, Political Leaders Are AWOL – Bloomberg North America: Charting the US economic recovery – Business Insider In U.S., Unadjusted Unemployment at 7.3% in Mid-October – Housing starts surge to fastest


Links October 16

Global Macro The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel goes to Alvin Roth and Lloyd Shapley Meanwhile, ‘Distress 3.0’ looms as emerging markets falter. Bloomberg At least HTF is cooling – profits are down 35% year on year. New York Times United States Ahead of tomorrow’s foreign policy debate, the


Links October 12

Global Macro: The central bank put by El-Erian of PIMCO Naked Capitalism very good read The debt crisis – lessons from history The Economist Gloom and Doom as the world economy slows The Diplomat good overview The weak currencies shall rise and inherit the earth The Economist bye bye battler North America: Romney in front in


Links 11 October 2012

Global Macro: BlackRock’s Fink calls for sharper global bank-recapitalization – Quantitative easing only benefits the financial sector, UK research finds – Fiscal policy: Let go of the brakes – The Economist In the battle of the generations, the battleground will be inflation – The Economist North America: FRB: Beige Book – October 10,


Links October 9

What Reynard was reading overnight… Global Macro Richard Branson’s plan B to save capitalism. The Economist There will be gain after the economic pain. Bloomberg But in the meantime, growth is ‘on the ropes’ according to Brookings. Financial Times No wonder investors are heading to emerging markets beyond the BRICS. NY Times But in Libya,


Links 4 October 2012

Global Macro: No recovery till 2018, IMF warns – The Guardian IMF chief economist says crisis will last a decade – Reuters History, gravity, and international finance – VOX FT Alphaville » Currency wars as global stimulus – FT Alphaville North America: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increases in September – Calculated Risk BlackRock’s Fink Says U.S.


Links: October 2

Global Macro Does an inter-generational showdown loom? The Economist Global trade stalls. Wall Street Journal But from Scotland to Singapore, a new silk road is being planned. Quartz A call for heterodox economics. VoxEU United States A tight race as the first presidential debate approaches. Washington Post Payroll tax break likely to end regardless of


Links September 25

Global Macro Economics and disequilibrium. Steve Keen. Didn’t notice it yesterday due to the strange title and buried lead, but this is a thoroughly good read. Here’s Keen’s main point: “Had economists built on [Irving] Fisher’s Road to Damascus conversion, an entirely new economics could have resulted from the Great Depression, with disequilibrium rather than


Links: 21st September

Global Macro: Aircraft carriers are awesome The Diplomat and expensive, and necessary… Commodity boom has peaked as QE3 (and BOJ QE9,10,11…) has faded Bloomberg Robert Shiller (of Irrational Exuberance fame) tears apart the econ convention on telling stories Project Syndicate North America: Jobless claims, slowing manufacturing points to stagnant economy Reuters Chart from Scotty Barber here Stocks


Links 20 September

Global Macro: 10 Unexpected Uses For Commodities – Business Insider Currency Wars Are Back – Business Insider North America: Housing Starts increased to 750 thousand in August – Calculated Risk Existing Home Sales in August: 4.82 million SAAR, 6.1 months of supply – Calculated Risk Chart of the day, housing bubble edition – Reuters Housing


Links September 18

Global Macro: China and America: a tale of two stimulus packages. Asia Times Online Investment banking’s halcyon days are over. The Economist Hezbollah calls for new protests. BBC. Arab Winter? United States: QE reaches the limits of mortgage processing. Financial Times Ben Bernanke reaches the limits of monetary policy. Robert Samuelson, Washington Post And Mitt


Links September 14: QEnfinity!

Global Macro: US Embassy in Yemen stormed as protests spread Bloomberg North America: When the US sneezes, we all catch a cold – Kate Mac at FT Alphaville on stall speeds/Dalio air pockets etc US Corporate profits are slowing fast as disappoint mounts Alphanow Here ’tis: QE3 is a $40 billion per month purchase of


Tax chartactular

Cross posted with permission from Mark the Graph: A week ago I posted on the tax table in the National Accounts. At that time I noted the drop in taxes paid by residential corporations. In response to the post, some people commented that I should present the taxes paid as a proportion of nominal GDP. In


Links for 13 September

Global Macro: S&P500 Total Return vs Bonds (1800-2012) – The Big Picture Demography and the Secular Bull Market in Our Future – The Reformed Broker The long-term impact of low rates – Financial Times North America: Shiller on House Prices – Calculated Risk Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2011 –


Links September 11

Global Macro: The flowering welfare state in Asia. The Economist. Must read. With China, the Trans Pacific Partnership is a road to nowhere. Asia Times The mystery of Jackson Hole: central bankers wonder why success eludes them. The Economist 11 years after 9/11. Pakistan Dawn. Al Qaeda warns of attacks on Syria. Globe and Mail


Links September 7th

Global Macro: Sweden cuts rates to 1.25% Reuters chart ZIRP world it is The ketchup problem with government deficits The Economist and why not to expect a global economy recovery anytime soon The Economist United States: Bubba still has it and gives it up to the Democrats FT (login req’d) ADP delivers 201k for August. Calculated


Links September 6th

Global Macro: Investment Outlook – ​The Lending Lindy – PIMCO Barclays heads roll over Libor – The Telegraph Bloomberg Markets’ 50 Most Influential: The People With the Power – Bloomberg Econbrowser: The gold standard and economic growth – Econbrowser Is That All There Is? The Remarkably Small Costs of Quantitative Easing – Economist’s View:


Links September 4

Global Macro: Why dictatorships build stuff that crumbles. Jay Ulfelder And why democracies get into so much debt. The Economist So which is the best system of government? Unsurprisingly, it’s Sweden’s. Der Spiegel. Meanwhile in Tehran, non-alignment gets a new lease of life. Bloomberg United States: A somber Labor Day for America’s unions. Reuters And


Links 31st August

Global Macro: World food prices jump 10% in July Reuters Gold option traders most bullish since October 2008 ZH  United States: Chances of QE3 fading, fading..fading..rising! fading….gone? Reuters Poll But here’s four things Bernanke could announce at Jackson Hole FT Gavyn Davies As jobless claims unchanged now for a month Bloomberg Europe: Portugal and the


Links for 30 August

Global Macro: The unintended consequences of QE: not what you think – FT Alphaville Citigroup reaches $590 million settlement over CDOs – Reuters Changing Views of Globalization’s Impact – New York Times United States: FRB: Beige Book – August 29, 2012 – Federal Reserve Fed’s Beige Book Tells Mixed Story – Wall Street Journal Has


Links August 28th

Global Macro: Hugo Chavez visits site of refinery explosion that killed 41. CNN. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, accounting for 94% of the nation’s exports, is in a shoddy state. With accidents like this he’ll have to work extra hard to rig the next election. Deep political problems also plague Saudi Arabia. Financial Times Assad regime accused


Links August 27th

Global Macro: Chart: World stock market recovery since 2007/2009 NYT Samsung infringed on Apple patents Reuters, Jury didn’t want Samsung to get off easy Reuters Apple patent victory boosts Microsoft as asian vendors scramble Reuters But, did Samsung win? Gigoam , either way they will appeal BBC United States: Schedule for the week ahead Calculated Risk So Mitt,