Leith van Onselen

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REIV goes into bat for Melbourne

By Leith van Onselen Following recent negative press about the dire state of Melbourne’s fringe housing estates, the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) yesterday argued that rental vacancies in Melbourne’s outer suburbs are the city’s tightest and that rents are likely to rise. From Property Observer: Melbourne’s outer suburbs continued to have the lowest

10

Auction clearance still lousy

By Leith van Onselen Auction clearance rates over the weekend were 59% in Sydney and 55% in Melbourne. This compares to a year-to-date average of 62% and 61% respectively, according to the Real Estate Institutes of New South Wales and Victoria. In New South Wales, the clearance rate of 59% was an improvement on last

165

MSM embraces housing doom

By Leith van Onselen In case you missed it, The Sunday Age yesterday ran a great article on the epic housing supply glut that is affecting Melbourne where, according to SQM research, the number of homes for sale has hit a record high, around double 2008 levels: Here are some key extracts from the Sunday

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Bogan exodus accelerates

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for May, which contained more bad news for the tourism industry. Short-term visitor arrivals decreased a seasonally adjusted -1.7% over the month, whereas short-term resident departures rose by more by 1.5%. In the 12 months to

18

Unemployment gulf revisited

By Leith van Onselen As reported by Houses & Holes, Roy Morgan Research yesterday recorded a big 1.5% jump in its unemployment rate to 9.7% in the month of June. As explained previously, Roy Morgan measures employment differently from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which is Australia’s official provider of labour force data: According

1

Exports to China hit record high

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released trade data for the month of May, which has recorded a monthly trade deficit of -$285 million, up from -$26 million in April (revised down from a previously reported -$203 million). March’s deficit was also revised down to -$1,004 million from a

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Macro Investor: The great property investor overhang

By Leith van Onselen. If there is one thing that separates the Australian housing market from most others, it’s the propensity for investors to leverage into buy-to-let properties in the face of negative income returns, in the expectation that capital appreciation will repay debt and interest. ‘Negative gearing’, as it is known in Australia, is

13

SQM stock on market release

By Leith van Onselen Following on from yesterday’s post on Melbourne’s record glut of unsold homes, please find below SQM Research’s press release assessing the stock on market as at June 2012. Figures released this week by property research house SQM Research reveal that the level of residential stock increased during the month of June

13

Retail sales defy European gloom

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this morning released the retail trade data for the month of May, which registered a solid bounce in retail sales that beat analyst’s expectations. In seasonally adjusted terms, retail sales rose by 0.5% in the month of May and by 3.5% year-on-year – just ahead

53

Melbourne apartment boom goes ballistic (again!)

By Leith van Onselen There’s life in the Melbourne construction boom yet, with the release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) building approvals data recording a seasonally-adjusted 27.3% (2,915 unit) rise in dwelling approvals in the month of May, led by Victoria where approvals rose by 32% (1,267 units): Victoria’s currently accounts for 36%

35

SQM hits “inaccurate” RP-Data daily index

Please find below a press release from SQM Research questioning the efficacy of the RP Data-Rismark daily home values index: Upon the back on recent commentary released by RP Data-Rismark in relation to increasing house prices in Australia, property research house SQM Research would like to take this opportunity to formally state our contrasting beliefs

13

Auction clearance rates going sideways

By Leith van Onselen Auction clearance rates over the weekend were 59% in Australia’s two major markets – Sydney and Melbourne. This compares to a year-to-date average of 62% and 61% respectively, according to the Real Estate Institutes of New South Wales and Victoria. In Victoria – usually the auction capital of Australia – the

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Housing credit plumbs record lows

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just released the private sector credit aggregates, which registered a small increase in total credit in the month of May, but the equal second lowest monthly housing credit growth in the series’ 35-year history and the lowest annual mortgage growth ever recorded: Total credit

77

Defending the housing shortage

By Leith van Onselen Last week’s revelation that the number of households disclosed in the 2011 Census was some 900,000 less than that assumed by the National Housing Supply Council (NHSC) appears to have prompted a rear guard action from one of Australia’s key housing shortage proponents – the ANZ Bank. Over a number of

50

Wakelin’s Eureka moment on Melbourne property

By Leith van Onselen It seems everyone is turning on the Melbourne housing market. Earlier this week, the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) capitulated, noting that Melbourne would see no house price growth in the short-term and, at best, only moderate price growth over the medium-term. The REIV’s analysis was joined by the generally

27

Flipping a thing of the past

By Leith van Onselen As noted previously, the Budgets of Australia’s state governments are suffering badly from a sharp drop in stamp duty receipts on housing transfers, which in 2011-12 are expected to be -20% below the levels of 2007-08 (see below chart). In addition to lower housing prices, a key driver behind the fall

23

Auction clearance rates lacklustre

By Leith van Onselen Auction clearance rates over the weekend remained lacklustre in Australia’s two major markets. According to the REIV, Melbourne recorded an auction clearance rate of 56% over the weekend, which was the same as the previous week (revised down from 57%) but below the year-to-date average of 61%. The number of reported

48

REIV capitulates

By Leith van Onselen The release of the 2012 REIV State of the Victorian Property Market report (below) provides a sobering assessment. According to the REIV, transaction levels – both private sales and auctions – are well down on the five-year average (see below table). Which, given that transaction volumes typically drives prices, suggests that

12

Weekend links: European agony

Global Macro: Reasons to fear Wall Street’s high-tech traders (Fortune) Pimco’s Bill Gross warns of risk assets as Aberdeen avoids stocks (Bloomberg) Moody’s tilts playing field toward safe-haven banks (AFR) United States: Pretty high hurdle to QE3: Fed’s Bullard (Reuters) University looks like a bubble that is about to burst (Financial Times) The Fed And

13

Links 22 June: Global sloth

Global Macro: Moody’s said to be poised to announce bank downgrades today (Bloomberg) United States: Existing Home Sales in May: 4.55m, 6.6 months of supply ( Calculated Risk) Unemployment Claims little changed, 4-week avg hits high (Calculated Risk) Philly Fed Reports Weaker Mid-Atlantic Business Conditions (Wall Street Journal) Citigroup Faces $5 Billion Hit on Dollar’s