By Leith van Onselen Missed this one yesterday. SQM Research has revealed via the AFR that it will shortly release a new vendor asking price index that will track housing market sentiment by tracking how optimistic sellers are about selling prices. SQM will monitor a number of major real estate classifieds websites, and chart the
By Leith van Onselen Seriously, who would want to be a state government right now? After a decade of strong growth prior to the onset of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), state revenues are drying-up, making those in power look like poor financial managers and creating anger amongst the electorate as the states make cuts
By Leith van Onselen Following on from yesterday’s post questioning whether housing construction can recover enough to fill the void left as the mining investment boom unwinds from 2013, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has written an interesting report also arguing that the recovery in building construction will be “relatively moderate” as interest rates are
By Leith van Onselen Fairfax’s Matthew Kidman has today published an interesting article weighing-up whether housing construction can recover enough to fill the void left as the mining investment boom unwinds from 2013. Let’s take a look: CAN the Australian housing market recover as it has in the past or is it different this time?
By Leith van Onselen The auction clearance rate in Victoria rebounded over the weekend on large auction volumes, although the high number of undisclosed results is likely to see the clearance rate downgraded over the week as late results are chased-up. The Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) reported a provisional auction clearance rate of
By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has just released rental vacancy data for the month of October 2012, which revealed little change over the month: The key points from the release are: Nationally, vacancies stagnated during October, with a mere difference of 560 vacancies, coming to a total of 49,104 and a national vacancy rate
By Leith van Onselen ‘Underlying demand’ (or ‘pent-up’ demand) is the common methodology used in calculating whether there is a housing shortage. Put simply, underlying demand estimates what the demand for newly-built housing might be given the growth in population, trends in household size, demand for second (or holiday) homes, and economic conditions (e.g. employment,
By Leith van Onselen Please find above RP Data’s November housing market update, which analyses the nation’s housing market as at the end of October when dwelling values declined by -1.0% over the month. As always, there are some interesting tidbits of information, including: 1. The recent pick-up in sales volumes, which are tracking 15%
Please find below Nathan Webb’s analysis of the latest AFG housing finance data. I’ve had a bit of a hiatus from charting, while helping my wife to look after the newest addition to our family. So I’ll have to keep it brief, lest I’m needed to do some cuddling. The AFG mortgage volumes for September
Global Macro: ICAP Tumbles Most in Two Years as First-Half Profit Shrinks 26% – Bloomberg Hoenig: A Better Alternative to Basel Capital Rules – The Big Picture North America: Retail Sales declined 0.3% in October – Calculated Risk Retail Sales in U.S. Decrease for First Time in Four Months – Bloomberg FRB: FOMC Minutes, October
By Leith van Onselen Last month, I wrote an article in MacroInvestor entitled Beware the house and land value trap, which examined the pitfalls of buying new house and land packages on the fringes of Australia’s capital cities. The article was particularly critical of measures adopted by Australia’s property developers aimed at reinvigorating new home
By Leith van Onselen The Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) has released data on housing transfers and mortgage lodgements for the month of October. According to DERM, the number of housing transfers and mortgage lodgements rose by 21.2% and 18.7% respectively in October 2012, and were up 35.9% and 23.9% respectively on
By Leith van Onselen The ABS this morning released Lending Finance data for the month of September, which registered solid seasonally-adjusted rises across all categories: In seasonally-adjusted terms, the value of personal finance commitments rose by 2.6% and were up 4.2% over the year: The value of lease finance commitments also rose – up 10.1%
By Leith van Onselen While housing finance data continues to improve, housing construction data is weakening, with the release of quarterly construction materials volumes by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Friday showing further weakness in volumes of concrete blocks, clay bricks and roof tiles – materials typically used in housing construction (see below chart).
By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released housing finance data for the month of September, which registered a seasonally-adjusted 0.9% increase in the number of owner-occupied finance commitments over the month. August’s results were also revised up by 0.4%: Arguably, the most important figure in the release is the
By Leith van Onselen Goldman Sachs last week released an interesting report (below) on the stark differences that have emerged across developed country housing markets. The report essentially seperates the preformance of various housing markets into two distinct categories: ‘housing high-flyers’:where real house prices have increased strongly and are up cumulatively since Q1 2009; and
By Leith van Onselen The auction clearance rate fell in Victoria over the weekend, with the number of auctions up significantly on the prior week’s action, which was interrupted by the Spring Racing Carnival. The Real Estate Institute of New South Wales (REINSW) has not updated its auctions data for the weekend, precluding us from
By Leith van Onselen The cash-strapped and stamp duty-addicted Victorian Government might breathe a sigh of relief after Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) released data revealing a big surge in housing transfers in the month of October. It was the highest number of October transfers since 2009, with 15,336 homes changing hands, up 26%
By Leith van Onselen As reported by the Houses & Holes earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released labour force data for the month of October, which reported a -0.8% decrease in the headline unemployment rate to 5.36% from 5.44% in September, but an increase in the total number of jobs across the
By Leith van Onselen RP Data this week released its Buy versus Rent Report for October (available for download here), which has received some positive press for the seemingly large increase in the number of locations where it is supposedly cheaper to buy than rent – from 238 suburbs and towns in August 2012 to
Global Macro: This Is the Worst Election for Wall Street in Decades – The Atlantic Election gamble backfires for banks, energy firms: Kemp – Reuters Best Rally in Decade May Slow as Obama Faces Congress – Bloomberg Improved access to private sector credit crucial to restoring global growth – AFR North America: Congratulations, Mr. President.
By Leith van Onselen The Department of Education, Employment & Workplace Relations (DEEWR) today released its leading indicator of employment (release below), which registered its fourth consecutive monthly rise (see below chart). In its explanation of the result, DEEWR seems fairly cautious in declaring that the employment market is improving: DEEWR’s Monthly Leading Indicator of
By Leith van Onselen Although there are still some undecided states, US Democratic President Barack Obama looks to have been re-elected to a second four-year term, with most major news networks declaring him the winner over Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. A win in the all important swing state of Ohio has helped to push him
By Leith van Onselen With the US Presidential Election being decided today, the above video primer by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the US “fiscal Cliff” is useful. The fiscal cliff is $US600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that will automatically become law at the beginning of 2013 unless Congress acts. Under
By Leith van Onselen News continued to improve for Australia’s tourism industry yesterday, with the release of the overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for September showing a second consecutive monthly lift in the number of inbound tourists and a big increase over the year. Although the number of short-term visitor arrivals increased by only
By Leith van Onselen For decades, coal has been a linchpin of Australia’s export base. Prior to the China-led commodity boom, coal exports – both thermal and coking – accounted for between 10% and 15% of Australia’s total merchandise exports. Until late-2009, coal was also Australia’s biggest export commodity, only recently ceding its advantage to
By Leith van Onselen Yesterday, my esteemed and learned colleague, Houses and Holes, questioned whether retail sales are accelerating based on the recent improvement of sales growth over the past year. Certainly, retail sales have climbed off the canvass, as illustrated by the below chart showing annual sales growth since 1998. A clear uptrend has
By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released trade data for the month of September, with Australia’s trade deficit narrowing to a seasonally-adjusted -$1,456 million, from -$1,876 million in August. July’s and August’s trade balances were also revised up, from -$1,530 million to -$1,234 million (July), and from -$2,027 million
By Leith van Onselen Auction clearance rates fell slightly in Australia’s two largest markets, with the number of auctions held down significantly on last weekend’s “Super Saturday” volumes. In New South Wales, a preliminary auction clearance rate of 60% was recorded from 563 auctions reported to the Real Estate Institute of New South Wales (REINSW).
By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its stock on market figures for the month of October, which registered virtually no change over the month nationally, but a -2.7% decrease in the number of homes for sale over the year: Here’s the national chart, which shows that stock levels have been steady for the