Unconventional Economist

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Aussie households still flush with savings

Last week’s national accounts for the June quarter showed that the massive reduction in economic stimulus (see next chart) is beginning to have a negative impact on household finances. As shown in the next chart, household disposable income continued to retrace from the September quarter’s peak, declining another 1.2% over the quarter: Nevertheless, annual disposable

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NSW daily COVID cases dip

NSW Health reported another 1,220 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours: NSW recorded 1,220 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. Two new cases were acquired overseas in the 24 hours to 8pm, and 17 previously reported cases have been excluded following further investigation. pic.twitter.com/0c8JYtoWwE

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NSW hospitals brace for COVID surge

According to NSW Health, there are 177 people with COVID-19 in intensive care statewide, including four children under the age of 12. New modelling undertaken by the Burnet Institute on behalf of the state government suggests that case numbers in the 12 local government areas at the epicentre of the current outbreak could soon top

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Victorian COVID cases surge upwards

Victoria has recorded another 246 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours: Reported yesterday: 246 new local cases and 0 new cases acquired overseas. – 32,300 vaccine doses were administered – 43,858 test results were received More later: https://t.co/lIUrl1hf3W#COVID19Vic #COVID19VicData [1/2] pic.twitter.com/o6QzckBMUf — VicGovDH (@VicGovDH) September 6, 2021 Of the 246 local cases,

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ANZ job ads point to higher unemployment

With more than half of Australia’s population currently in lockdown and many businesses in furlough, demand for labour taken a hit. Accordingly, ANZ’s job ad series fell a further 2.5% in August; albeit is holding up much better than last year’s lockdown: As noted by ANZ, “the cumulative 3.7% fall since June is dwarfed by

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Links 7 September 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Amazon CEO unveils 55,000 tech jobs in his first hiring push – Reuters Where In The World Is It Easiest To Get Rich – Answer Pandit Energy needed to eradicate poverty ‘compatible with climate goals’ – Carbon Brief Black Friday and holiday shopping season will be full of supply

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Michael Sukkar: JobKeeper transparency “outrageous”

Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar has labelled calls to disclose big business recipients of JobKeeper “outrageous”: Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar says inserting a clawback provision in the JobKeeper program would have “risked Australian jobs”, as he declares Labor’s attempt to reveal recipients of the wage subsidy “outrageous”. An ongoing scrap between Labor and the Coalition emerged

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Tracking Australia’s vaccine rollout

After a slow start, Australia’s vaccination rollout is gathering pace and we are now vaccinating around 1% of the population every day. Just over half of Australia’s population has now received a single vaccine dose, with 30.7% now double vaccinated: NSW is the vaccine leader, with 59.1% of the state’s population now single vaccinated. This

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Grattan: Expand paid parental leave to fathers

The Grattan Institute has released a new report calling for paid parental leave to be made gender-equal to “deliver both significant social and economic gains”. Below is the Overview combined with some key charts: Few policies deliver both significant social and economic gains. But gender-equal paid parental leave is one of them. That is why

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Unions slam slave driving agricultural visas

Australian Workers Union (AWU) national secretary Dan Walton is highly critical of the new agriculture visa that is due to take effect at the end of September. Walton says the visa will clash with the Pacific Labour Scheme, and will cause great damage to Australia’s relations with Pacific ­Island nations. Walton claims the agriculture visas

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NSW’s COVID cases soar toward 25,000

NSW has recorded another 1,281 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours: NSW recorded 1,281 new locally acquired cases of #COVID19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. pic.twitter.com/xtImb5eF8x — NSW Health (@NSWHealth) September 6, 2021 Five more people have died with COVID: A woman in her 50s A man in his

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Job postings hold up despite lockdowns

Callam Pickering, economist at global jobs site Indeed, has updated his job postings series to 27 August. The important take away from this month’s release is that Australia’s labour market is defying lockdowns: The impact of lockdowns on job postings nationally has been relatively minor, certainly when compared with the lockdowns that occurred last year

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AMA: Hospital system overrun by mass immigration

Australian Medical Association (AMA) Victorian president, Roderick McRae, was quoted extensively over the weekend in The Age (here and here) warning that Victoria’s hospitals were already overrun pre-COVID, suffering from a decade of extreme population growth and a lack of funding. This, in turn, has left the health system in a precarious position to cope

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Victoria’s COVID outbreak spirals out of control

Victoria’s Delta outbreak continues to spiral out of control. The state recorded another 246 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours – the highest daily count this outbreak: Reported yesterday: 246 new local cases and 0 new cases acquired overseas. – 26,955 vaccine doses were administered – 42,258 test results were received More

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Melbourne auctions stink, Sydney auctions strong

The nation’s auction clearance rate rebounded following a huge reduction in the number of auctions held across Melbourne, which lowered the withdrawal rate. CoreLogic recorded a preliminary national clearance rate of 44.5%, up from the prior weekend’s 55.4%. Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate remained rock solid at 84.0% versus 82.7% the prior weekend, whereas Melbourne’s rebounded

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Mortgages signal softer property prices

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance commitments data for July, which rebounded 0.2% after June’s first decline in 9 months: As regular readers know, the growth in new mortgage commitments has historically been correlated very strongly with dwelling value growth. The reason is straightforward: the overwhelming majority of buyers borrow

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Links 6 September 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Energy needed to eradicate poverty ‘compatible with climate goals’ – Carbon Brief Black Friday and holiday shopping season will be full of supply chain delays – VOX HSBC CEO Plans for Permanent Hybrid Work, Much Less Jet-Setting – Bloomberg Concept of economic support and types – Economist Americas: ‘Catastrophe’

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Another bad day of COVID numbers

Australia’s Delta outbreak continues to grow. First, Victoria recorded another 183 cases today with only 101 linked to known cases and outbreaks: Reported yesterday: 183 new local cases and 0 new cases acquired overseas. – 29,950 vaccine doses were administered – 48,487 test results were received More later: https://t.co/lIUrl1hf3W#COVID19Vic #COVID19VicData [1/2] pic.twitter.com/ZbMdc2j30q — VicGovDH (@VicGovDH)

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Australia’s COVID outbreak spirals out of control

Australia’s Delta outbreak continues to spiral out of control. First, Victoria recorded another 190 cases today with only 103 linked to known cases and outbreaks: Reported yesterday: 190 new local cases and 0 new cases acquired overseas. – 35,464 vaccine doses were administered – 49,548 test results were received More later: https://t.co/lIUrl1hf3W#COVID19Vic #COVID19VicData [1/2] pic.twitter.com/XAZCfkJfzB

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Weekend Reading 4-5 September 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Who is the Wealthiest Generation? – Economist Writing Everyday Short on Money, Legal and Otherwise, the Taliban Face a Crisis – NY Times Consumer Sentiment is Low and Fear is High Amid Inflation and the Delta Variant – Barrons Treasury yields move lower ahead of initial jobless claims –

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Virus spreads beyond Western Melbourne

Recall that Victoria today recorded 208 new locally acquired COVID cases and around 1200 active cases: Every afternoon, the Victorian Government releases a deeper breakdown of the numbers across municipalities, which Nucleus Wealth has decomposed below: As you can see, the virus continues to spread like wildfire across Western Melbourne. However, it is also beginning

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Melbourne’s auction market goes into hibernation

The nation’s auction market tanked last weekend on the back of a huge fall in Melbourne’s clearance rate. CoreLogic recorded a final national clearance rate of 58.0%, down from the prior weekend’s 64.3%. Sydney’s final clearance rate remained strong at 80.2% versus 78.5% the prior weekend, whereas Melbourne’s collapsed further to just 35.9% from 49.1%

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Morrison buries transparency with new secrecy bill

The Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) recently ruled that national cabinet was not a sub-committee of the federal government. Prime Minister Scott Morrison had used the argument to defeat the efforts of independent senator Rex Patrick to gain access to national cabinet deliberations. The federal government has now tabled legislation aimed at thwarting the AAT’s ruling,

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CoreLogic: Property market withstanding lockdowns

CoreLogic’s head of research, Eliza Owen, has released data showing that property transaction activity is holding up well despite hard lockdowns across Sydney and Melbourne: Initial stage 2 restrictions in 2020 coincided with a drop in sales volumes nationally through April of -33.9%. This included a fall in Sydney sales of -36.7%, and -40.3% across

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One Nation sides with JobKeeper looters

One Nation has sided with the Morrison Government, voting down the Senate’s bill requiring firms with more than $10 million in turnover to disclose their JobKeeper subsidies: In the Senate, independent senator Rex Patrick moved an amendment to… require the Australian Taxation Office to reveal companies with annual turnover of more than $10m that received