Unconventional Economist


Unemployment falls to 10-year low of 4.9%

God bless COVID and closed borders. The ABS has just released the labour market report for June, which recorded the lowest unemployment rate since June 2011 at 4.9%: Key statistics: Unemployment rate decreased to 4.9%. Participation rate remained at 66.2%. Employment increased to 13,154,200. Employment to population ratio increased to 63.0%. Underemployment rate increased to


NSW records another 65 COVID cases

NSW Health has recorded another 65 new local COVID cases over the past 24 hours: NSW recorded 65 new locally acquired cases of #COVID19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. pic.twitter.com/tW6Zxiitm6 — NSW Health (@NSWHealth) July 15, 2021 There have been 929 locally acquired cases reported since 16 June 2021, when the first


John Kehoe embarrases self with immigration propaganda

The AFR has taken another shot at RBA governor Phil Lowe for daring to admit that Australia’s mass immigration program pushed down wage growth. The robber baron’s paper of choice has now enlisted economics editor John Kehoe to cherry-pick research and testimony claiming that immigration does not push down wages. Below are Kehoe’s main arguments:


A detailed look at Australian dwelling construction

Yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released dwelling construction data for the March quarter, which showed that detached house commencements hit the highest level on record over the quarter, whereas unit commencements fell to a nine-year low: By contrast, actual dwelling completions remained depressed over the quarter, suggesting the pipeline of construction is well


One-third of Aussie properties cheaper to buy than rent

CoreLogic has released a new report showing that it is cheaper to service a mortgage than rent across one-third of the nation’s properties, with New South Wales and Victoria primarily responsible for warping the results: CoreLogic analysis suggests servicing a mortgage is now cheaper than paying rent on 36.2% of Australian properties, which is higher


Links 15 July 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Treasury yields are flat even after June’s hot inflation report – CNBC The Economic Mechanism Behind the Populist Backlash to Globalization – Ineteconomics Ending pension lock is a start, but there’s no easy fix to the yawning generation gap – The Guardian A Housing Frenzy Is Sparking Bidding Wars


I’m shocked! Shocked! Developers hate Victoria’s zoning windfall tax

May’s Victorian Budget implemented a new windfall gains tax for properties whose value is boosted by a council rezoning. This tax will apply to properties where the value is boosted by more than $100,000, with a 50% tax on windfalls above $500,000. The clearest indication that this windfall tax is good policy has come from


Farmers: visa slaves better than paying a living wage

Amid the conga-line of evidence showing that temporary migrants have been ruthlessly exploited on Australia’s farms, which has frequently been labelled “modern slavery”, the Australian Workers Union (AWU) has lodged an application with the Fair Work Commission to amend the Horticulture Award to guarantee a minimum casual rate of pay for all farm workers. As


NSW records 97 new COVID cases

NSW Health has recorded 97 new local COVID cases over the past 24 hours: NSW recorded 97 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. pic.twitter.com/YfNptxyua5 — NSW Health (@NSWHealth) July 14, 2021 Of the 97 locally acquired cases reported to 8pm last night, 70 are from South Western


Immigration moves back into positive

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for May 2021, which confirmed that net migration into Australia has moved back into positive. There were a net 3,480 permanent & long-term arrivals in May, which followed April’s 270 net arrivals: Nevertheless, there have been 19,810 net permanent & long-term departures


Consumer confidence brushes aside Sydney virus outbreak

The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index rose 2.0% to 110.0 points in the weekend of 11-12 July despite the worsening virus outbreak in Sydney and the extension of the city’s hard lockdown. The key movements in the sub-indices were as follows: With Brisbane, Perth and Darwin emerging from their snap lockdowns, consumer confidence rebounded 2.0%


JobKeeper 2.0 the right policy for Sydney

The federal and NSW governments have responded to the growing outbreak in Greater Sydney by agreeing to provide a combined $5.1 billion in COVID-19 disaster payments for businesses and individuals who have been affected by the lockdown. The funding commitment is based on expectations that the lockdown will be extended by at least four weeks. Prime


Australia’s cities cannot cope with projected population growth

Treasury’s latest Intergenerational Report (IGR) projects that Australia’s population will grow by a whopping 13.1 million people (~50%) over the next 40 years to 38.8 million people. This is the equivalent to adding another Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane to Australia’s existing population. Moreover, 74% of this growth will come directly from net overseas migration (NOM), which


Links 14 July 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Only the Rich Could Love This Economic Recovery – NY Times Higher inflation is here to stay for years, economists forecast – WSJ Janet Yellen Warns That Coronavirus Variants Threaten Global Recovery – NY Times Semiconductor Shortages and Vehicle Production and Prices – Cleveland Fed A Housing Frenzy Is


CEO pay takes much needed haircut

An Australian Council of Superannuation Investors survey has revealed that the CEOs of ASX 100 companies received no annual bonus in 2020, double that of the previous year. They included Alan Joyce of Qantas, Marnie Baker of Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz of Mirvac. Ed John from the ACSI says that the pandemic


Treasury’s IGR immigration analysis doesn’t add up

Dr Judith Sloan was the Commissioner in charge of the Productivity Commission’s 2006 review into the Economic Impacts of Migration and Population Growth. Therefore, she speaks with authority on the subject. Today Dr Sloan has torn apart the false claim in Treasury’s Intergenerational Report (IGR) that increasing immigration is good for the nation’s finances. This


Inflation expectations are bouncing back

Roy Morgan’s inflation expectations survey for June has been released which reports that Australians expected inflation of 4% over the next two years, up 0.3% and the highest Inflation Expectations since the pandemic began. Inflation Expectations are also now 0.8% higher than they were a year ago – the biggest year-over-year increase since the series


MB Subscriber Report: 1H 2021 Australian Property Outlook

Below is the first in a new monthly routine of special reports that will be provided exclusively to MacroBusiness subscribers. The Australian economy’s better than expected recovery, driven by unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, has delivered the biggest and broadest property price boom for generations. All five major capital city markets have experienced astonishing rebounds


More proof Australia’s ‘skilled’ visa system is a giant fraud

For years we have been told that Australia’s visa system is world-leading because it provides the economy with vital skills and plugs so-called critical labour shortages. This view is generally based on a superficial examination of Australia’s permanent migration program, whereby the ‘skilled’ stream accounted for around two-thirds of the total intake pre-COVID: The reality


Links 13 July 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Higher inflation is here to stay for years, economists forecast – WSJ The bond market agrees with the Federal Reserve — inflation is temporary – CNBC Solar Is Dirt-Cheap and About to Get Even More Powerful – Bloomberg Virus variants threaten global recovery, G20 warns – Reuters Capitalist rulers