You have got to love the contradictory statements coming from the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), which continues to talk with a forked tongue on the labour market. The ACCI recently sent a submission to the Morrison Government’s migration program review whereby it demanded easier access to foreign workers to ameliorate purported crippling
By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA. Key Points Wages and salaries paid into CBA bank accounts lifted over May which points to growth in employment and hours worked in the month. The number of CBA customers receiving the JobSeeker payment continued to decline over May which indicates unemployment fell over the month.
Seriously, who would want to own a high-rise apartment? Over recent years, hundreds of buildings have been forced to remove dangerous flammable cladding at the cost of millions. Multiple apartment towers have also been plagued by building faults, costing owners thousands in rectification costs. In 2019, Four Corners aired a segment entitled Cracking Up, where
CoreLogic has released new data showing the increasing risk profile of Australian mortgage lending as investors have flooded back into the market. While the percentage of high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) lending fell over the March quarter to 10.4% from 11.3% – likely reflecting the reduction in first home buyers active in the market: The percentage
The unprecedented boom in new home sales has ended following the expiry of the Morrison Government’s HomeBuilder subsidy at the end of March. According to new data released by the Housing Industry Association (HIA), new home sales have roughly halved from March and are tracking way below the December peak (when HomeBuilder subsidies were initially
Has the ABC been living under a rock? Last night The Business reported in disbelief that many Australian workers will have their take home pay cut when the superannuation guarantee (SG) is lifted from 9.5% to 10% on 1 July: Employment lawyers say if an employee’s contract says their super is included in their total
By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA Key Points The domestic economic landscape has changed significantly as a result of COVID‑19; it means that we are much more likely to see a lift in wages growth and consumer inflation over the next few years. The Commonwealth fiscal stance has shifted radically in favour
MB has comprehensively debunked Australia’s claimed $40 billion of education exports, which are wildly exaggerated. In a nutshell, the majority of education ‘exports’ comes in the form of expenditure on goods and services in Australia, as explicitly acknowledged in a recent Mitchell Institute report: The majority of the $20 billion loss of economic value is
In the week ended 10 June, the CoreLogic daily dwelling values index surged another 0.45%: Sydney’s led the way again, with dwelling values rising another 0.63%. All other major capitals except Perth also rose strongly in value: Quarterly price growth remains turbo-charged at 6.91% across the five major capitals. Sydney (9.02%) continues to lead the
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: In a world first, El Salvador makes bitcoin legal tender – Reuters Hot inflation may have become scorching in May and is expected to hit a 28-year high – CNBC Controlling Rates Is More Complicated Than You Think – St. Louis Fed Fed’s reverse repo volume hits all-time high
CoreLogic released its final auction report for last weekend, with the final clearance rate falling to 70.6% from 73.5% the prior weekend. It was the lowest final auction clearance rate recorded in 2021. As usual, Sydney led the market recording a final clearance rate of 75.6% (down slightly from 76.0%), whereas Melbourne’s final clearance rate
For months we have witnessed Australia’s hospitality industry whine over labour shortages and lobby the federal government to give it easier access to foreign workers. At the same time the hospitality industry contradictorily called for an extension of JobKeeper and has lobbied to freeze the minimum wage. We are seeing the same shenanigans over the
NSW has recently flagged plans to replace stamp duty with an annual land tax. But NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet contends it will be “tough fiscally” to pursue stamp duty and broader GST reform without the help of the federal government: “It makes sense for them to support [it]. Things can be politically challenging but they don’t
Last week, the NSW Productivity Commission (PC) released a White Paper explicitly stating that Sydney’s housing shortage was caused by an unexpected boom in Sydney’s population when the federal government threw open the immigration floodgates in 2005: Much evidence suggests that our State, and Sydney in particular, has not delivered enough housing over many years.
Victoria’s fourth hard lockdown has extended the Australian Labor Party’s two-party preferred poll lead, according to Roy Morgan. During the Victorian lockdown in early June, support for the ALP is 51% on a two-party preferred basis, up 0.5% points since March 2021 and increasing their lead over the L-NP on 49% (down 0.5% points) despite
One of the most asinine COVID restrictions that will continue into next week is the banning of gyms. Gyms were singled-out and banned from reopening in Regional Victoria last week, despite no reported COVID cases, and they will be singled out again in Melbourne when it reopens at midnight tonight. As happened last year when
The AFR reported that the proportion of landlords negatively gearing rental properties fell to 58.6% in 2018-19, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) statistics. This was the lowest level on record and well down on the peak of 69.6% in 2007-08. There were also 19,113 fewer negatively-geared landlords than in 2017-18, representing the
CoreLogic has released its June housing chart pack, which reports that the nation’s rental growth has gone vertical, soaring by 5.6% in the year to May 2021: The rise in rents follows the national rental vacancy rate falling to an 8-year low, according to SQM Research: As shown in the next chart, rental growth is
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Indeed economist Callam Pickering has updated his job postings data to 4 June 2021, which have softened from recent highs: Victorian job postings have softened in recent weeks and are a bit weaker than the national average, up 38.7% on their pre-COVID level. Job postings across the rest of the nation are also down from
A recent report from the National Agricultural Labour Advisory Committee admitted that Australian farmers’ extreme reliance on cheap migrant labour is having detrimental productivity impacts by preventing farms from adopting new methods and investing in automation: In many ways, Australia is at a crossroads. Either its enterprises go all out to modernise by learning and
Roy Morgan Research has released new data on CBD people movements, which reveals that all CBDs across the Australia are experiencing significantly lower traffic levels than pre-COVID: Not surprisingly, Melbourne’s CBD has been hit hardest following four lockdowns, with the current lockdown pushing people movements to only 19% of ‘normal’ pre-COVID levels. My view is
The ABS has released its Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages in Australia data for the week ending 22 May 2021, which reported that payroll jobs are now tracking 2.6% above their pre-Covid level, whereas total wages are tracking 3.1% higher: The next table shows the breakdown across jurisdictions, which shows all states & territories reporting
Another month has gone by and mortgage stress continues to grow, according to Digital Finance Analytics as reported in The AFR: “Many households in stress have less hours worked than they want, and no income growth. Bigger mortgages by first time buyers and equity drawdowns are lifting repayments as lending standards ease and more interest-only
Genomic sequencing has confirmed that the outbreak of the highly infectious Delta variant of COVID-19 in west Melbourne has been traced to a returned traveller who arrived from Sri Lanka on 8 May and tested positive for the virus on the same day. The man in his 40s was released from the Novotel Ibis quarantine
Policy makers and urban planners have for generations attempted and failed to diversify Australia’s economic activity and settlement away from the cities. These same central planners also regularly touted so-called ’20-minute cities’ where people can live, work and socialise, only for commute times to grow as workers shunted into the CBD on crowded trains and
Judo Bank CEO Joseph Healy yesterday expressed concern about the “almost uncontrollable rise in household debt” across Australia. This was 180% of disposable income at the end of 2020, according to data from the Reserve Bank. Healy is particularly concerned about the growth in mortgage lending, arguing that it is “foolhardy” to assume that interest
The average national house rent is up 4% on late 2019, according to data from MRI Software, which tracks real-time rental performance across 4000 real estate offices. However, national apartment rents have fallen by 7% over the same period, due to factors such as border closures and a lack of business travel. The average time
Global Macro / Markets . Investing: Deutsche Bank warns of global ‘time bomb’ coming due to rising inflation – CNBC European stocks slightly higher as U.S. inflation data dominates week ahead – CNBC The Big Question: Does the Welfare State Make Countries Richer? – Bloomberg The Inflation Red Herring by Joseph E. Stiglitz – Project
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index has taken another hit from Victoria’s latest lockdown, falling by 0.6% in the weekend of 6/7 June: According to ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank: Consumer confidence fell another 0.6% as the lockdown in Melbourne was extended until at least 10 June. Confidence fell by 2.4% in Melbourne
