Unconventional Economist


Treasury: Mass immigration wrecked housing affordability

Yesterday, the Australian Treasury’s Macroeconomic Division head Crystal Ossolinski told the parliamentary committee into housing affordability that housing supply had not kept pace with rapid population growth in the early 2000s, which caused house prices to surge: “We’ve had some periods of strong population growth in Australia, particularly in the early 2000s, where population growth


Coalition narrows poll gap with ALP

From Roy Morgan Research: ALP support has dropped to 52.5% (down 2% points since late August) cf. L-NP on 47.5% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This was the first increase in support for the L-NP since mid-June, before the current Sydney lockdown began according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal


Rental vacancies shrink to decade low

SQM Research has released its August rental report, which recorded the lowest national rental vacancy rate since March 2011 at just 1.6%: The next chart plots the time series at the national level and shows clearly the sharp reduction in the vacancy rate over the past year: The next chart plots vacancies across the five


Victoria records 423 COVID cases, 2 deaths

Victoria has recorded another 423 locally acquired COVID cases and two deaths: Reported yesterday: 423 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas. – 41,856 vaccines administered – 54,649 test results received – Sadly, two people with COVID-19 have died More later: https://t.co/OCCFTAtS1P#COVID19Vic #COVID19VicData [1/2] pic.twitter.com/SMkSBLYqyt — VicGovDH (@VicGovDH) September 14, 2021 Most are mystery


Aussie housing towers over economy

The ABS yesterday released its property price data for the June quarter, which valued Australia’s dwelling stock owned by households at $8.5 trillion, whereas the total housing stock was valued at $8.9 trillion. As shown below, the ratio of the dwelling stock owned by households against Australian GDP hit a record 4.1 times as at


Immigration moves back into negative

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for July 2021, which suggests net migration into Australia moved back into negative. There were a net 3,130 permanent & long-term departures in July, which followed June’s 2,540 net arrivals. Still, over the July quarter, there were 2,890 net permanent & long-term


Links 15 September 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The S&P 500 drops for a fifth day, its worst stretch since February. – NY Times Growing risk of once-in-a-century solar superstorm that could knock out internet, and power grid for 2 years study says – CTV News Three ways to tax the subtraction and exclusion, not the addition,


Tracking Australia’s vaccine rollout

After a slow start, Australia’s vaccination rollout continues to gather pace. 54.5% of Australia’s population has now received a single vaccine dose, with 34.2% now double vaccinated: NSW is the vaccine leader, with 63.3% of the state’s population now single vaccinated. This is followed by Tasmania (54.2%), Victoria (54.0%), SA (48.3%), NT (46.7%), Queensland (46.5%)


Push for “flexible quarantine” of farm slaves as Aussies lay stranded

19 months on from the pandemic and there are still around 40,000 Australians stuck overseas and unable to return home due to: 1) prohibitive arrivals caps and quarantine limits; and 2) extortionately expensive airfares and quarantine costs. Rather than developing solutions to bring stranded Australians home, our politicians are more interested in importing cheap migrant


Australia’s property market tightening amid lockdowns

CoreLogic’s weekly market update suggests that lockdowns are tightening the nation’s residential property market. Specifically, total listings have collapsed, down 17.6% year-on-year: At the same time, mortgage demand remains strong. As shown below, it is the strongest September for “mortgage activity events” since 2017: Strong buyer demand amid reduced market supply is obviously a recipe


ABS: Property prices surged 6.7% in June quarter

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its property price indices for the June quarter, which registered explosive 6.7% growth across the combined capitals over the quarter and 16.8% growth year-on-year: The gains were broad-based with all capitals recording strong price growth over the quarter and year. The next table tracks price growth over


Consumer confidence rebounds on NSW reopening plan

From ANZ: Confidence rebounds Consumer confidence jumped 3.1% last week, as the NSW government released its much anticipated “roadmap to freedom”, which sets out the plan for easing of restrictions once 70% of adults in the state have been fully vaccinated. Four out of the five subindices made significant gains. ‘Current financial conditions’ rose 2.0%,


NSW daily COVID cases continue to fall

NSW recorded 1,127 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours – the lowest number in nearly a fortnight: NSW recorded 1,127 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. pic.twitter.com/QS809aYxhy — NSW Health (@NSWHealth) September 14, 2021 Two people died with COVID over the past 24 hours:


Coalition lauds virtuous JobKeeper waste

The AFR’s Joe Aston has continued his full fledged assault against the Morrison Government’s JobKeeper waste, which saw more than 150,000 companies that weren’t in trouble – many of them actually thriving – receive $13 billion worth of subsidies from taxpayers. On 12 September, Aston highlighted Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s hypocrisy and contradictions in defending these


Coalition sheds more housing affordability crocodile tears

Coalition MP Jason Falinski, who will chair the parliamentary inquiry into Housing Affordability and Supply, penned an article in The AFR lamenting the destruction of housing affordability across Australia and the need to boost housing supply: The Tax and Revenue Committee’s inquiry is our last and best chance to understand why in 1985, growth in


Victoria records 445 COVID cases, 2 deaths

Victoria has recorded another 445 locally acquired COVID cases and two deaths: Reported yesterday: 445 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas. – 36,615 vaccines administered – 42,694 test results received – Sadly, two people with COVID-19 have died More later: https://t.co/eUcG50Y3T0#COVID19Vic #COVID19VicData [1/2] pic.twitter.com/BUjGKZWPBP — VicGovDH (@VicGovDH) September 13, 2021 Most are mystery


Links 14 September 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: New Paper Suggests Union Membership Reduces Income Inequality – Voiced Crowd Toyota, Honda Angry After Getting Shut Out of Electric Car Tax Credit – The Motley Fool Inflation For Businesses Hits Highest Rate Since 2010 – Daily Wire Crypto Banking and Decentralized Finance, Explained – NY Times The Left’s


Another Bad Santa looms for retail

A new survey of retail sales expectations shows that 21% of Aussies expect to spend less this Christmas than last year versus only 9% that expect to spend more: Nearly half of all sales will also be conducted online: With 58% of Aussies expected to purchase more Christmas gifts online than last year: Despite these


A rare win for Aussie welfare recipients

Thanks to the rebound in Australian inflation courtesy of the ‘base effect’: Australia’s welfare recipients will soon receive solid increases in payments: From next week, the maximum single age pension rate will rise by $14.80 to $967.50 a fortnight, while age pensioner couples will receive an extra $22.40 combined, taking their fortnightly payment to $1458.60.


The slow death of Sydney

Friendly Jordies (Jordan Shanks) has launched an all out assault on the NSW planning system, claiming “property developers are the shadow government of NSW”. Shanks claims Sydney is being destroyed by mass overdevelopment as thousands of ugly, tacky high-rise apartments mushroom across the city. In turn, Shanks blames the NSW Government, which he claims has


NZ housing swallows economy

New Zealand’s average house price has hit $1 million for the first time: New figures from OneRoof and its data partner Valocity show the typical cost of a property around the country increased 4.9% in the last three months and 27% since September 2020. The doubling of the national average property value in less than


The only thing Australia can manufacture is a ponzi economy

The Australian Sovereign Capability Alliance has called on the federal government to appoint a minister for Australian sovereign capability. This follows the release of a report it commissioned, which found that Australia has the lowest level of manufacturing self-sufficiency of any country within the OECD. ASCA director Martin Hamilton-Smith claims Australia is reliant on other


NSW records 1257 COVID cases, 7 deaths

NSW Health has recorded another 1257 locally acquired COVID cases: NSW recorded 1,257 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. pic.twitter.com/U1vFrksKnG — NSW Health (@NSWHealth) September 13, 2021 Seven more people have died with COVID: A woman in her 60s; Three people in their 80s; and Three people


Unemployed Aussies locked-out of farm work

As we know, the Morrison Government has introduced a new Agricultural Visa that from the end of this month. This visa will allow regional businesses across the horticultural, meat processing, fisheries and forestry sectors to hire an uncapped number of indentured migrant labour from 10 South-East Asian nations with the promise of permanent residency if


Victoria’s COVID cases surge higher

Victoria has recorded an outbreak high 473 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours: Reported yesterday: 473 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas. – 30,032 vaccines administered – 49,037 test results received More later: https://t.co/lIUrl1hf3W#COVID19Vic #COVID19VicData [1/2] pic.twitter.com/d71MFYyTsL — VicGovDH (@VicGovDH) September 12, 2021 More than half are mystery cases. Of


Would Melbourne open up with 500 cases a day?

Denmark on Friday ditched vaccine passports and axed its remaining COVID restrictions after coming “out the other side of the pandemic”: With no masks in sight, buzzing offices and concerts drawing tens of thousands, Denmark on Friday ditched vaccine passports in nightclubs, ending its last Covid curb. The vaccine passports were introduced in March 2021


Auction market bounces back

The nation’s auction clearance rate rebounded further over the weekend, recording a preliminary national clearance rate of 72.3%, up from the prior weekend’s 63.7%. Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate remained rock solid at 83.8% versus 84.0% the prior weekend, whereas Melbourne’s rebounded to 54.4% from 44.5% the prior weekend, but remained weak: According to CoreLogic regarding