The Dow made a fresh intraday high on the back of the improving jobless claims data which printed on the right side of expectations and gives some hope for a positive non-farm payrolls outcome later tonight Asian time. Of course in the context of market jobless claims have never really been a big indicator of
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Deus Forex Machina
Macro Morning: No love for the Australian dollar
Interesting close to the week on Friday with US markets doing better on the back of the good US data compared with the poor and moribund data out of Europe. But events subsequently over the weekend could make for an interesting start to the week. First cab off the rank are comments from Beppe Grillo
Macro Morning: Risk awwwwn!
Stocks surged higher overnight on the back of Bernanke once again reiterating that he will not withdraw his stimulus any time soon. In his second day of testimony the Chairman, as is usually the case, reiterated the message that he gave the day before. His message was aided by some reasonably good data from the United States together with
Macro Morning: Australian dollar safe haven’t
The uncertainty caused by the Italian elections continued to reverberate around markets overnight with European stocks under pressure and the US dollar and gold benefiting materially from the malaise. The election result seems to have come as somewhat of a surprise to the established players and clearly also the markets. Stocks in Milan fell 4.9%
Macro Morning: Risk aaaaaaawf
In 2010, 2011 and 2012 the problems of Europe hit the markets in late April and early May. I have been expecting something similar again this year given that the euphoria of the near death experience Europe is starting to give way to a recognition that the Eurozone economy is in dire straits still. The
Macro Morning: German hope rocket
Stocks were driven higher by the much better than expected ZEW sentiment survey in Germany with a big bounce from 31.5 to 48.2 this month for a much better result than the 35 the punditry were expecting. The Eurowide ZEW survey was equally amazing coming in at 42.4 from 31.2 last. How business sentiment has
Macro Morning: Walmart crash
Friday night was mixed with UK retail sales tanking 0.6% versus an expectation of a rise of 0.4% in January. US industrial production was also weaker than expected falling 0.1% in January against an expectation of a rise of 0.2% but the New York State Empire manufacturing survey was up sharply to 10 from -7.78 last
Macro Morning: GDP whacks euro
Terrible numbers out of Europe overnight and likewise weak growth in Japan so as Houses and Holes posted earlier much of the world shrank in Q4 2012. Certainly the Japanese weakness was unsurprising but the data out of Europe, particularly Germany, was truly disquieting and suggests that the ECB will need to ease and if a
Macro Morning: Golden crumble
Early strength in European stocks and the euro gave way in US trade overnight and gold is breaking lower once again. Interesting last 24 hours in markets with the S&P hit 1525 for the first time since 2007 but reversed to sit lower at present. Euro was stronger initially after comments from the Russian Finance Minister which
Macro Morning: Euro hit by Draghi
The Euro’s slide seems to have triggered a sell off in equities overnight after ECB boss Mario Draghi said in his prepared statement that: downside risks stemming from weaker economic activity and, more recently, the appreciation of the euro exchange rate Draghi’s comments are a hat tip to French concerns and the reality that there
Macro Morning: Australian dollar in trouble
The Aussie is breaking down and fell below 1.03 for the first time in 3 months overnight as investors look to other markets for profitable opportunities in 2013. The loss of more than 100 points at the low is damaging technically for the Aussie even if it looks a little stretched for the moment. The
Macro Morning: Europe weighs on markets
Europe and its political climate are the gifts that just keep giving and the huge sell off in the euro and in European stocks overnight, particularly Spain and Italy, managed to hit markets around the globe. The key seems to be the dual problems associated with the brewing financial scandal for Spanish Prime minister Rajoy and
Macro Morning: Stocks surge!
The bulls are back in control and the non-farm payrolls released Friday supported the stock rally with an outcome that was close to consensus with a print of 157,000 but with positive revisions to the last couple of months of 127,000 jobs. This helped the US stock market rally all day with the Dow climbing
Macro Morning: Waiting for non-farm payrolls
European stocks ended what has been a very good month overnight as they played catch up with the US move the night before and some weaker than expected data and the fact that we all await the release of the single most important piece of monthly economic data tonight, non-farm payrolls in the US. Equally
Macro Morning: US shrinkage
The release of the FOMC Statement this morning was much anticipated and it went to script with the Fed reiterating its commitment to doing what it can to revive the economy through its bond buying program and super low rates. The Fed also highlighted once again that the economy: likely to warrant exceptionally low levels
Macro Morning: Stocks up again
Stocks were higher again in the US and Europe with US stocks in particular benefitting from better than expected reports by Pfizer and oil refiner Valero combined with the strong rise in the Case Shiller home price index of 5.5% more than offsetting the very weak consumer confidence data for January which fell to 58.6 from