Deus Forex Machina

1

Macro Morning: Draghi opens the door

The Dow made a fresh intraday high on the back of the improving jobless claims data which printed on the right side of expectations and gives some hope for a positive non-farm payrolls outcome later tonight Asian time. Of course in the context of market jobless claims have never really been a big indicator of

3

Macro Morning: No love for the Australian dollar

Interesting close to the week on Friday with US markets doing better on the back of the good US data compared with the poor and moribund data out of Europe. But events subsequently over the weekend could make for an interesting start to the week. First cab off the rank are comments from Beppe Grillo

4

Macro Morning: US dollar strength

Welcome to March, a month where it looks like the US dollar is going to continue to strengthen, gold to fall for the 6th month in a row, the euro to remain under pressure and stocks to decide if they have the internal strength to push that half a percent or so back up to

11

Macro Morning: Risk awwwwn!

Stocks surged higher overnight on the back of Bernanke once again reiterating that he will not withdraw his stimulus any time soon. In his second day of testimony the Chairman, as is usually the case, reiterated the message that he gave the day before. His message was aided by some reasonably good data from the United States together with

5

Macro Morning: Australian dollar safe haven’t

The uncertainty caused by the Italian elections continued to reverberate around markets overnight with European stocks under pressure and the US dollar and gold benefiting materially from the malaise. The election result seems to have come as somewhat of a surprise to the established players and clearly also the markets. Stocks in Milan fell 4.9%

5

Macro Morning: Risk aaaaaaawf

In 2010, 2011 and 2012 the problems of Europe hit the markets in late April and early May. I have been expecting something similar again this year given that the euphoria of the near death experience Europe is starting to give way to a recognition that the Eurozone economy is in dire straits still. The

2

Macro Morning: Itaaaallllyyyyyyyy

Nothing really matters this week except for the outcome of the Italian Elections which will start to filter out in Asian time today and then Bernanke’s walk up the Hill to give his testimony to the US Congress. On the former it is in the hands of the Italian people what happens but regarding the

16

Macro Morning: Fed caps stocks

It was a big night for currencies and commodities but there is a real risk now for stock bulls that the FOMC just put a lid on the recent rally. The FOMC Minutes which came out at 1700 GMT or around 6am Sydney time and showed a recognition that the flow of easy money can

0

Macro Morning: German hope rocket

Stocks were driven higher by the much better than expected ZEW sentiment survey in Germany with a big bounce from 31.5 to 48.2 this month for a much better result than the 35 the punditry were expecting. The Eurowide ZEW survey was equally amazing coming in at 42.4 from 31.2 last. How business sentiment has

0

Macro Morning: Silent night

A boring a night for stock investors with the US out and Europe a bit mixed. The FTSE fell 0.16%, the DAX was up 0.47%, the CAC rose 0.18% while Milan and Madrid both slid 0.51%. The Italian elections are coming up fast so that might be a cause of market angst again soon depending

1

Macro Morning: Walmart crash

Friday night was mixed with UK retail sales tanking 0.6% versus an expectation of a rise of 0.4% in January. US industrial production was also weaker than expected falling 0.1% in January against an expectation of a rise of 0.2% but the New York State Empire manufacturing survey was up sharply  to 10 from -7.78 last

1

Macro Morning: GDP whacks euro

Terrible numbers out of Europe overnight and likewise weak growth in Japan so as Houses and Holes posted earlier much of the world shrank in Q4 2012. Certainly the Japanese weakness was unsurprising but the data out of Europe, particularly Germany, was truly disquieting and suggests that the ECB will need to ease and if a

1

Macro Morning: Golden crumble

Early strength in European stocks and the euro gave way in US trade overnight and gold is breaking lower once again. Interesting last 24 hours in markets with the S&P hit 1525 for the first time since 2007 but reversed to sit lower at present. Euro was stronger initially after comments from the Russian Finance Minister which

0

Macro Morning: Dow tops 14,000

The Dow closed at its highest level since 2007 but the key for me is the statement from the G7. Currency rates are in many ways the most important transfer price for an economy given the level of global trade and the openness of global finance these days. So a weaker currency can often help

0

Macro Morning: Trade data drives markets

Have we seen an end to the trends in last week’s trade? It certainly looks like the chances are high when you look at the charts. The Dow managed to post its first weekly loss for 2013. The euro reversed savagely from the previous Friday’s high atop 1.37 and even the Yen’s run toward the

2

Macro Morning: Euro hit by Draghi

The Euro’s slide seems to have triggered a sell off in equities overnight after ECB boss Mario Draghi said in his prepared statement that: downside risks stemming from weaker economic activity and, more recently, the appreciation of the euro exchange rate Draghi’s comments are a hat tip to French concerns and the reality that there

3

Macro Morning: Australian dollar in trouble

The Aussie is breaking down and fell below 1.03 for the first time in 3 months overnight as investors look to other markets for profitable opportunities in 2013. The loss of more than 100 points at the low is damaging technically for the Aussie even if it looks a little stretched for the moment. The

4

Macro Morning: Yesterday never happened

Markets reversed the moves of Monday in European and US trade overnight with stocks and the euro sharply higher and the Pound returning to its recent more usual weak tone. It’s hard to tell exactly why markets are up so sharply but it tells you much about the tone at present when you read excuses

3

Macro Morning: Europe weighs on markets

Europe and its political climate are the gifts that just keep giving and the huge sell off in the euro and in European stocks overnight, particularly Spain and Italy, managed to hit markets around the globe. The key seems to be the dual problems associated with the brewing financial scandal  for Spanish Prime minister Rajoy and

0

Macro Morning: Stocks surge!

The bulls are back in control and the non-farm payrolls released Friday supported the stock rally with an outcome that was close to consensus with a print of 157,000 but with positive revisions to the last couple of months of 127,000 jobs. This helped the US stock market rally all day with the Dow climbing

0

Macro Morning: Waiting for non-farm payrolls

European stocks ended what has been a very good month overnight as they played catch up with the US move the night before and some weaker than expected data and the fact that we all await the release of the single most important piece of monthly economic data tonight, non-farm payrolls in the US. Equally

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Macro Morning: US shrinkage

The release of the FOMC Statement this morning was much anticipated and it went to script with the Fed reiterating its commitment to doing what it can to revive the economy through its bond buying program and super low rates. The Fed also highlighted once again that the economy: likely to warrant exceptionally low levels

10

Put on some puts

Stocks around the world have been enjoying what is a stealth rally over the past few months as the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet has once again done its work in driving cash into stocks. But with this stock rally has come an improving economic performance in the US which has 10 year US

5

Macro Morning: Stocks up again

Stocks were higher again in the US and Europe with US stocks in particular benefitting from better than expected reports by Pfizer and oil refiner Valero combined with the strong rise in the Case Shiller home price index of 5.5% more than offsetting the very weak consumer confidence data for January which fell to 58.6 from

9

Macro Morning: Treasury fret

US 10 year Treasuries hit 2% for the first time since April last year as the fear grows, at least for the bond vigilantes, that the US is on the verge of a 1994 style recovery and bond rout. Off course the corollary of that is stocks should do OK, the Aussie Dollar and Swiss