Enid Blyton would be proud. The world is truly upside down where bad news is good news and good news bad. It makes for an interesting week given last’s data was just the beginning and we finish off with the globe’s most important data release – non farm payrolls – on Friday. Looking at last
This is possibly the most important week on the economic calender for the quarter with a raft of data coinciding with a number of markets around the world being very close to key levels which need to either hold or break. It all kicked off on Saturday with better than expected NBS Chinese Manufacturing PMI
Markets continued to gyrate again last night as the conflicting signals of the economy and fed policy combined with market positioning and trader confusion about what is really going on. Whether it is Reuters or Bloomberg or Marketwatch or whoever else reporting the overnight action it all seems to be about the US GDP data that drove stocks
Markets are nothing if not humbling. After declaring a new golden age for the US dollar is upon us yesterday the Big dollar decided to make me look like a feather duster and fell across the board overnight. I’m not exactly sure why the US dollar fell given that the Bond market ructions and their
I have written recently that I think the US dollar is on the dawn of a new golden age and the price action last night in FX land and the data from the US reinforces my view that this is the case. It also complicates in a very big way my thoughts that USDJPY might
Nothing much happened over the past 24 hours. European stock markets managed to close a little hgiher with the DAX up 0.94%, the CAC up 0.97% and stocks in Milan and Madrid up 1.55% and 1.20% respectively. The Nikkei had another mad trading day yesterday finding support under 14,000 for the 3rd session in a
It’s a holiday in the US tonight for Memorial Day and in the UK for the Spring Bank Holiday so for the first time in a while we get a quiet Monday. Which no doubt Asian traders will appreciate after the ructious trading late last week after the Chinese data, Fed line fluffing and general disquiet
It has been a wild last 24 hours with the Nikkei down 7%, USD/JPY trading through an almost 300 point range and the Aussie dollar breaching not only 97 cents but also briefly 96 cents yesterday. In my experience over the last 25 years I’d note that volatility begets volatility so we could have a
There was little inconvenient truth in Ben Bernanke’s speech and then questions last night that has sent US 10 years yields 11 basis points higher to 2.03% , the S&P and Dow down 0.85% and 0.52% respectively and contributed to a wild old night on FX markets. In his prepared remarks Bernanke said that a premature tightening
Tonight is a big night for stocks and markets more broadly because when Bernanke speaks he is likely to get a reaction. The reason I say that is because I have no doubt that the entire stock market rally is related to the Fed’s QE operations and as such if there is a sign that the “taper”
We really should do something about having the ratings agencies as the arbiters of what is good and right after the performance they put in prior to the GFC, but somehow they remain at the centre of global finance. Last night Moody’s warned the US that it faced a downgrade to its Triple A rating if
Stocks and the US dollar were higher on Friday night as the trends continue to dominate markets. US 10 years rates were chased back from 2% last week by some buying but it seems that with all the talk of taper floating around the market is going to continue to keep upward pressure on yields.
More of the same overnight with another round of weak data in the US as jobless claims rose 30,000 to 360,000 which is a six week high. The Philly Fed was also very weak dropping from 1.3 in April to -5.4 in May with the market having expected a rise to 2. Housing starts were
Data everywhere and not a drop of growth. Stocks kept keeping on overnight with both the Dow and the S&P touching new all times highs in trade before pulling back a little while stocks in Europe rallied even though we saw some very poor GDP data for the Eurozone. Germany managed to print a moribund
The Australian budget wasn’t the reason why the Aussie dollar fell below 0.99 overnight but there was nothing in it that was or is going to support the Aussie. Indeed I’d argue that the hopeful nominal forecasts for a return to 5% GDP growth in a couple of years simply reinforces the notion that Australia’s
There seem to be three trends emerging in markets at the moment. The first is the reemergence of US dollar strength, the second is the upward pressure on yields in the US and Japan for almost the opposite reasons and third is the growing line up of notable names who want to dis the Aussie
On Saturday I was fairly comfortable that I had this week mapped out but the article in the Wall Street Journal by Jon Hilsenrath which is sourced inside the Fed and makes claims that they are contemplating the end to the current program of bond buying has given me reason to pause. On the one
It was all about FX overnight with the US dollar stronger knocking the yen through 100, the Aussie below its range low and hitting the euro back toward the bottom of the range. Dr Copper was under a little pressure and gold and Nymex crude were both lower also. The absolute catalyst is hard to
Two trends are emerging at the moment. The first is that the bears are lining up against the Aussie while the second is that the bears are becoming bulls for the US stock market, however reluctantly. Last night was a quiet night in the US but the Dow and S&P both managed to make new
If you believe the reporters at MarketWatch then the Dow pushed to a new all-time high above 15,000 and the S&P closed at another new all-time high because the RBA cut rates yesterday. At first blush that seems a ludicrous notion but when you think about it for a second it actually makes a lot
Markets were fairly quiet overnight relative to the fireworks and bullishness of Friday. No doubt the UK holiday had something to do with this but equally the lack of data in the US and the subdued nature of the Chinese, German and European Services PMI’s that were released yesterday while they didn’t exactly knock the
“I’m out there Gerry and I’m loving it” So said Kramer to Gerry Sienfeld when he decided to go “Commando” for the first time and I get the sense that there will be a few bears who might turn bull after the price action we have seen in the US stock market over the past
Words are important aren’t they? In everyday life and in markets words can help or they can harm, they build up or they can drag down. Last night a few words from ECB boss Mario Draghi were enough to knock the euro from its perch above 1.32 after the ECB rate cut and see it
So rhetoric works sometimes it seems and my hosing recovered somewhat overnight with the big fall in the Aussie and Dr Copper going the way of my position. It was actually bad trading and the type of trading that only a big balance sheet, small positions or a big fund can really justify. But I
I’ve been hosed this week as I have deviated from my usual short term technical intra and day trading style in favour of a more rhetorical style I used to use as a fund manager or bank trader. I need to be up front about that lest what I write below be misconstrued as trying
Some days I am in tune with market and others I am not. Yesterday was one of those days where I was not in sync because I simply failed to understand the impact that the swearing in of the Italian government would have on sentiment in Europe. I both underestimated the positive reaction and figured
I normally stay out of politics. It is something I learned working in funds management and for the major banks for much of the last quarter century. Commenting on politics is not something that is looked highly upon. That is not to say that back in 2000 and 2001 when I was saying that the
Euro traders in early Asia are at it again with the swearing in of the new Italian Government led by a bloke most Italian’s don’t even know, Enrico Letta. The team he has put together after being tapped on the shoulder last week by the aging Italian President is a grand coalition of his centre
It’s all about Europe overnight with the British GDP data printing better than expected at +0.3% for Q1 and 0.6% year on year. In Europe the truly appalling unemployment numbers for France where unemployed hit a new record of 3.25 million and Spain where the unemployment rate hit 27% or 6.2 million knocked the euro off
Whatever drugs the European stock markets are on I want some. The idea that stocks should rise in the order of 3% because the data in Europe is so appalling that the ECB will need to cut from the already ludicrous level of 1% is pure fantasy. But rise they did and cut rates the
