Deus Forex Machina


Macro Morning: Upside down world

Enid Blyton would be proud. The world is truly upside down where bad news is good news and good news bad. It makes for an interesting week given last’s data was just the beginning and we finish off with the globe’s most important data release – non farm payrolls – on Friday. Looking at last


Macro Morning: Hard hats plz, this is a big week

This is possibly the most important week on the economic calender for the quarter with a raft of data coinciding with a number of markets around the world being very close to key levels which need to either hold or break. It all kicked off on Saturday with better than expected NBS Chinese Manufacturing PMI


Macro Morning: Volatility reigns

Markets continued to gyrate again last night as the conflicting signals of the economy and fed policy combined with market positioning and trader confusion about what is really going on. Whether it is Reuters or Bloomberg or Marketwatch or whoever else reporting the overnight action it all seems to be about the US GDP data that drove stocks


Macro Morning – beware volatility

Markets are nothing if not humbling. After declaring a new golden age for the US dollar is upon us yesterday the Big dollar decided to make me look like a feather duster and fell across the board overnight. I’m not exactly sure why the US dollar fell given that the Bond market ructions and their


Macro Morning: All hail the King!

I have written recently that I think the US dollar is on the dawn of a new golden age and the price action last night in FX land and the data from the US reinforces my view that this is the case. It also complicates in a very big way my thoughts that USDJPY might


Macro Morning: Japanese fractures

Nothing much happened over the past 24 hours. European stock markets managed to close a little hgiher with the DAX up 0.94%, the CAC up 0.97% and stocks in Milan and Madrid up 1.55% and 1.20% respectively. The Nikkei had another mad trading day yesterday finding support under 14,000 for the 3rd session in a


Macro Morning: China slowdown

It’s a holiday in the US tonight for Memorial Day and in the UK for the Spring Bank Holiday so for the first time in a while we get a quiet Monday. Which no doubt Asian traders will appreciate after the ructious trading late last week after the Chinese data, Fed line fluffing and general disquiet


Macro Morning: No taper in sight

Tonight is a big night for stocks and markets more broadly because when Bernanke speaks he is likely to get a reaction. The reason I say that is because I have no doubt that the entire stock market rally is related to the Fed’s QE operations and as such if there is a sign that the “taper”


Macro Morning: Moody’s hits the US dollar

We really should do something about having the ratings agencies as the arbiters of what is good and right after the performance they put in prior to the GFC, but somehow they remain at the centre of global finance. Last night Moody’s warned the US that it faced a downgrade to its Triple A rating if


Macro Morning: Gold weak

Data everywhere and not a drop of growth. Stocks kept keeping on overnight with both the Dow and the S&P touching new all times highs in trade before pulling back a little while stocks in Europe rallied even though we saw some very poor GDP data for the Eurozone. Germany managed to print a moribund


Macro Morning: Long live the King

There seem to be three trends emerging in markets at the moment. The first is the reemergence of US dollar strength, the second is the upward pressure on yields in the US and Japan for almost the opposite reasons and third is the growing line up of notable names who want to dis the Aussie


Macro Morning: QEnd in sight?

On Saturday I was fairly comfortable that I had this week mapped out but the article in the Wall Street Journal by Jon Hilsenrath which is sourced inside the Fed and makes claims that they are contemplating the end to the current program of bond buying has given me reason to pause. On the one


Macro Morning: RBA gooses Wall St?

If you believe the reporters at MarketWatch then the Dow pushed to a new all-time high above 15,000 and the S&P closed at another new all-time high because the RBA cut rates yesterday. At first blush that seems a ludicrous notion but when you think about it for a second it actually makes a lot


Macro Morning: New bull market

“I’m out there Gerry and I’m loving it” So said Kramer to Gerry Sienfeld when he decided to go “Commando” for the first time and I get the sense that there will be a few bears who might turn bull after the price action we have seen in the US stock market over the past


Macro Morning: Stocks bounce back

Words are important aren’t they? In everyday life and in markets words can help or they can harm, they build up or they can drag down. Last night a few words from ECB boss Mario Draghi were enough to knock the euro from its perch above 1.32 after the ECB rate cut and see it


Macro Morning: Australian dollar wilt

So rhetoric works sometimes it seems and my hosing recovered somewhat overnight with the big fall in the Aussie and Dr Copper going the way of my position. It was actually bad trading and the type of trading that only a big balance sheet, small positions or a big fund can really justify. But I


Macro Morning: S&P all time high

Some days I am in tune with market and others I am not. Yesterday was one of those days where I was not in sync because I simply failed to understand the impact that the swearing in of the Italian government would have on sentiment in Europe. I both underestimated the positive reaction and figured


Macro Morning: US GDP misses

Euro traders in early Asia are at it again with the swearing in of the new Italian Government led by a bloke most Italian’s don’t even know, Enrico Letta. The team he has put together after being tapped on the shoulder last week by the aging Italian President is a grand coalition of his centre


Macro Morning: Euro pain

It’s all about Europe overnight with the British GDP data printing better than expected at +0.3% for Q1 and 0.6% year on year. In Europe the truly appalling unemployment numbers for France where unemployed hit a new record of 3.25 million and Spain where the unemployment rate hit 27% or 6.2 million knocked the euro off


Macro Morning: Stocks gettin’ high

Whatever drugs the European stock markets are on I want some. The idea that stocks should rise in the order of 3% because the data in Europe is so appalling that the ECB will need to cut from the already ludicrous level of 1% is pure fantasy. But rise they did and cut rates the