Deus Forex Machina

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Macro Morning: Aussie dollar tanks

Friday was a huge reversal of fortune for the Aussie dollar after the widely reported comments from the Chinese Finance Minister which suggest that growth is going to be lower in the second half of the year. While the debate seems to be raging about whether or not he has downgraded policy I think that

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Macro Morning: Key reversal on Australian dollar?

Fed Chairman Bernanke is the clear loser in the overnight rally. You might think it strange that I say that but with the S&P making a new all time closing high after the Chairman was seen as being “dovish” rather than his recent “hawkishness” it is clear that his nuanced message is not getting through

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Macro Morning: Bond market conundrum

It’s all about the Fed, the FOMC minutes and Fed Chairman Bernanke this morning as FX markets in particular are reacting in a remarkable fashion to a perception that the Fed has been more dovish in the minutes to the recent FOMC meeting and that the Fed Chairman has likewise entered a note of caution

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Macro Morning: You cant kill this stock market

Some pundits reckon that Ben Bernanke would be happy with the performance of the stock market relative to the talk of taper but I’m not convinced he would be as I remain of the view that like we heard from the BIS recently there is a growing concern among central bankers of the risk of

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Macro Morning: More moneeeeeeeeeeeeeey

Central bankers are certainly front and centre at the moment and even though the US was out for the 4th of July holiday there was still plenty to get your teeth into. The farcical situation of the RBA Governor delivering the joke that no one got the other day which knocked the Aussie down more

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Macro Morning – Aussie makes a fresh low

Okay, so a spokesman for Glenn Stevens says that his comment about the RBA Board having deliberated hard to leave rates unchanged was supposed to be a joke yesterday. I don’t buy it – like his counterparts at the Fed who are doing an excellent job of communicating their Taper messages the RBA Governor is

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Macro Morning: PMIs lift stocks and Aussie

Apologies for the brevity today but I seem to have some computer nasties jumping my cursor around and cutting out the internet. Recap  I am going to spend a little time celebrating the improved manufacturing PMI readings we saw across Europe and the US last night because I  hope  that these translate to more employment for the so many unemployed

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Gold meltdown not over

I have been bearish gold for ages now, since late last year when it was well above $1600 an ounce. I’m not a gold bug or a gold hater, it’s just another market for me and like Apple at around the same time last year Gold simply looked very bubblicious on the monthly charts which

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Macro Morning: Gold tanks

I have to hand it to the Fed they have been as transparent as a central bank can be with regard this taper caper and although the market took heed of more soothing words last night the fact that so many Fed Presidents and Governors are addressing the markets reaction to last week’s FOMC announcement

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Macro Morning: Bad news bounce

As you all know it doesn’t matter whether I trust a market move or not, the market is the market and it goes where it will. So the fact that I didn’t trust the previous night’s rally mattered little to the stock market bulls who have been buoyed by a release of some of the

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Macro Morning: Dead cat

I don’t trust last night’s rally in US stock markets. Sure everyone in equity land was happy that Shanghai scrapped its way back from nearly 6% down to close to square on the back of PBOC hopes but if markets last week sold off on the basis that the taper is coming and that central

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Macro Morning: Central banks want stocks lower

With so many Fed Governors talking this week I thought we would get soothing words from them so as to not spook the market any further than it had already been but in the release from the BIS over the weekend, in the statement from the PBOC yesterday and in comments from two senior Fed

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Macro Morning: Another week of Fedspeak

A week after markets were buffeted by Fed speak and concerns about the FOMC stealing the punch bowl it would have been nice to get back to a little data focus this week but alas that is not to be. Intervention on Friday by Fed Governor Bullard, who released a press statement saying why he

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Macro Morning: Gold spanked

Markets all over the world came under pressure last night as much from the directness of the Fed’s words and intentions and then a little bit of strong US data and as much from position squaring as investors and traders all over the world reduce their bets and get their funds closer to their index

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Macro Morning: Crash, bang, wallop

Rightyo, what a night! Bernanke didn’t fluff his words last night as he looked the camera in the eye and said that if things go as the FOMC thinks they will then the taper is on track to begin this year, and that the unemployment rate in 2014 is going to be in the 6.5-6.8%

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Macro Morning: Shifting sentiment

Is it possible that for all the criticism that has been directed at the Fed that the nuances are actually starting to become apparent between a “taper” and a withdrawal of stimulus? I’ll have a chat about it below but as a recap stocks did really well last night, better than I would have thought

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Macro Morning: Australian dollar sell

Given the choice was extreme volatility or mostly quiet trade in the lead up to the FOMC meeting later this week I’m guessing there are a huge number of traders who are happy that it was quiet market trade that prevailed in the end. All except the Aussie dollar which had another wild night opening

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Macro Morning: Bernanke’s vacuum

Helicopter Ben is front and centre this week as markets enter a vacuum and await his every utterance as to signals about the when, where, how and why of the taper. That is really what it is all about in pretty much every market. The volatility that the Fed has engendered since its public discussions

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Macro Morning: Risk aversion rising

Aversion to risk is never a healthy thing for stocks and the degree to which aversion is rising is evidenced by the spread of the sell off as it has seeped into emerging markets in a very aggressive way since the middle of May. This is simply evidence of the extent that the entire planet,

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Macro Morning: Volatility spreads

When I said that it was BoJ day yesterday not for a minute did I think that their decision, which I expected, to leave things as they are, would ignite the kind of growing mess we saw overnight and a growing instability that threatens to becoming all enveloping. But with the Nikkei and Asian stock

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Macro Morning: BoJ day

By Greg McKenna Markets are at an incredibly critical juncture at the moment with the notions that a Fed taper is coming as soon as next week top of my mind with the resultant impact on stocks front and centre too. I‘ll talk about that a little later but first lets focus on the massive 4.9% rally

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Macro Morning: Ugly all around

Nikkei, FTSE, DAX, CAC, Dow, S&P 500, USDJPY, AUDUSD and so the list goes on on a night where reality continued to bite and bite hard. Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s “Third Arrow” announcement yesterday left the market flat and circled round and hit him in the backside it seems as both the Nikkei and USDJPY

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Macro Morning: Taper shock

A little bit of reality hit home over the past 24 hours as the Aussie dollar came under renewed pressure and stocks in the US sold off as yet another Fed Governor (Kansas) was on the hustings waxing lyrical about wanting to downsize, what we know as “taper”, the Fed’s bond buying program. Stocks in