Houses and Holes

37

Daily iron ore price update

Here’s your overnight ore complex action: Looks like the bulks got their Chinese data bounce one day early. In other news, I mentioned this yesterday but it’s worth repeating. Marius Kloppers has declared the end of the boom: In the 10 years or so that have passed since China first came to the fore as

10

Another ore expansion bites the dust

From The Australian: MOUNT Gibson Iron will lay off about 270 workers, slow mining and cut pay for senior managers to curb costs and help it ride out a fall in commodity prices. “The immediate market outlook remains uncertain,” chief executive Jim Beyer said today in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange. “The only

10

Chinese growth stabilises

So, the China data dump has landed and it shows stabilising growth. Real GDP came in at YoY 7.4%, the  previous was 7.6%: Real GDP year to date was  7.7%, the  previous 7.8%. Of the components, industrial production came in at 9.2%, previous was 8.9% Year to date is 10%, previous was 10.1%: The all important fixed

22

Treasury confesses

From the AFR: Treasury’s top economic forecaster has conceded that commodity prices have fallen by more than the government expected in the May budget, reducing the expected pace of Australia’s resources investment boom. “There’s no question commodity prices have come down by more than we expected at budget,” executive director of Treasury’s macro-economic group (domestic),

0

NAB quarterly business survey still weak

The quarterly version of NAB’s business survey is out this morning and shows status quo weakness: Business conditions improved modestly in the September quarter though were unable to recover the sharp fall in the previous quarter. Official ABS data point to relatively soft activity in the September quarter, following a fairly robust first half of

18

Land sales recovering?

The HIA has released a new report this morning which offers a little more hope to the RBA’s new agenda of boosting dwelling construction. Land sales are showing a rising trend: The latest residential land update signals that new housing starts should begin to recover modestly by early 2013. “The June 2012 quarter saw residential

76

The MRRT dog

The Minerals Resource Rent Tax is on the receiving end of a nasty report in The Australian today: BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto will be the only resource companies making payments of the new mining tax when the first instalment falls due on Monday, and they will be doing so out of a sense of

2

ANZ property insider survey falls on mining worries

Find below details of the ANZ’s December quarter property industry survey. The latest Property Council of Australia-ANZ Property Industry Confidence Survey revealed a weaker property industry outlook in the December quarter. Asofter global economy, weaker hard commodity prices and a high Australian dollar are producing challenging domestic economic conditions, particularly for the mining sector. Today’s data confirms

30

US growth set to rebound?

Courtesy of Sober Look. Deutsche Bank’s economists are turning bullish on the US output growth in 2013. They believe that improvements in US home construction (see discussion) will have a multiplier effect – even though construction by itself accounts for only 1% of the GDP. And they are seeing some of this multiplier effect in

10

Cast iron drivel

Business Spectator’s Ben Potter has a fast and loose take on iron ore today: Third quarter production reports have catapulted the big miners higher as they met or exceeded analyst expectations. This, combined with strong offshore leads and an investment community that is fast becoming less bearish on China provide a near perfect storm for

43

New home market still the worst in 20 years

If Stockland’s warning this morning is anything to go by, the RBA has some work ahead of it if it wants to deliver on its plan to stimulate new dwelling construction: Stockland will update securityholders on its current performance and outlook at its Annual General Meeting in Sydney today. Stockland’s Residential business has continued to come

0

Bill Evans discounts his own Leading Index

And so he should. To put it bluntly, it doesn’t work. Today’s (August) rose above trend: Here’s why: The growth rate in the Leading Index has increased from –0.8% in March this year to 3.0% in August. The main contributors to that growth improvement are: manufacturing materials prices (1.3 ppt’s); overtime worked (1.1 ppt’s); productivity (1.1 ppt’s); corporate operating

36

The price of LNG export

There is another industry sponsored report out this morning. We are used to seeing these from the mining sector but today it is manufacturing that is getting into the act and more particularly chemicals. The report is called Large scale export of East Coast Australia natural gas: Unintended consequences. It is by Melbourne consultancy National Economics and was commissioned

131

An early election?

From the AFR this morning comes an interview with the Treasurer: Wayne Swan has warned it may not be clear until early next year whether the two “misfiring’’ engines of global growth – Europe and the US – are back on track as Labor attempts to deliver its promised budget surplus. …Asked whether uncertainty about the

2

China’s two-speed economy

Courtesy of Sober Look. A recent economic letter from the San Francisco Fed (Israel Malkin and Mark Spiegel) discusses a model used to project China’s economic growth. In their analysis the researchers separate China into two economies: “Advanced” and “Emerging”. They point out that historically (across Asian nations), as economies move from Emerging to Advanced,

4

Links October 17

Global Macro Labour market are not self-regulating. RRN Air cargo volumes show weakness. Prag Cap Rheinhardt and Rogoff debate. Alphaville United States US inflation contained. Calculated Risk Builder confidence bounces again. Calculated Risk IP up 0.4%. Calculated Risk Everyone is long. Zero Hedge Pandit gone. Quartz Europe Farewell crisis. Sober Look Asia China criticises Iran

46

Booz gives us the chicks gong!

Yes, it’s another global survey. Which accounts to some degree for the jaded and outrageous headline. It is either that or my latent misogyny. Anyway, this list is one of importance and to come in at number one, ahead of so-called moral super powers like the Norse countries, is something to be especially proud of.  It’s

75

QBELMI and BIS: houses to the moon!

From the AFR comes reference to yet another housing report today: House prices in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth will recover over the next three years, while the other state capitals will experience weak conditions until mid-2015, according to BIS Shrapnel. The LMI Housing Outlook for 2012-2015, prepared by BIS Shrapnel, forecasts house prices in Sydney will

7

The J.P.Morgan Mortgage Industry report (volume 16)

Find below the biannual J.P.Morgan Mortgage Industry Report (formerly co-authored with Fujitsu Consulting). Here is the executive summary: This report is a collaboration between J.P. Morgan and DFA, using industry analysis, modeling, and primary consumer research to focus on developments in the Australian Mortgage Industry. This edition of the report (Volume 16) acknowledges the contribution of higher repayments

27

RBA Minutes wracked with doubts

Find below the RBA Minutes. The final section is the one to read. It is full of doubt about the mining boom, the efficacy of monetary policy and economic growth going forward. Surprisingly so. Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board Sydney – 2 October 2012 Members Present Glenn Stevens (Chairman and

6

Bloxo: Rate cuts still work

HSBC economist Paul Bloxham is out this morning with a note that declares monetary policy fine and well for Australia: The RBA has cut the cash rate by 150bp in the past year and it is now 75bp below neutral in our view  Low rates are starting to support the interest-rate sensitivesectors of the economy,

80

Pre-GFC low-doc frenzy

The Australian this morning continues its excellent coverage of Australia’s buried sub-prime scandal: A NATIONAL body of finance brokers claims risky low-documentation lending was “out of control” during the boom years, with the practice driven by aggressive lenders chasing easy profits. Finance Brokers Association of Australia national president Peter White said many brokers had engaged