Houses and Holes


HSBC China services PMI falls

Just to confuse and confound, the HSBC China services PMI is out this afternoon and it fell a point or so: This obviously contradicts the weekend’s non-manufacturing PMI, which is broader. But such contradiction is no stranger to economic observer generally, let alone in China. Full report below. 121105 HSBC China Services PMI – Report (2)


Retail sales accelerating?

Retail sales for October are out and show a an ongoing subdued trend (historically) in the month up 0.5% from September, against expected of 0.4%, prior was 0.2% revised up to 0.3%: The internals a fairly even mix of flat sales with a bounce in household goods following last month’s plunge. This is a stronger


ANZ job ads tank in October

From ANZ: The number of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers fell 4.6% in October, following a revised decline of 3.9% in September. This was the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Job advertisements are now 15% below levels seen in October last year. In trend terms, job advertisements declined 2.2% m/m in October. • The number of


TD Securities monthly inflation comes in soft

The TD Securities monthly inflation gauge for October is out and is up a measly 0.1% month on month, prior was 0.2%. Year on year is up 2.4% prior was 2.4%. Here is the chart: Nothing to worry about here for tomorrow’s meeting. Interestingly, however,  if the housing is finally stimulated as planned by the politburo in


All together now: China forever!

Find below the new “Aussie Mine” report from PWC, an annual assessment of the landscape and prospects for the mid-tier Australian miners. I don’t recommend reading this for any other reason than the good laugh available in the assessment of China from pages 3 to 7. If ever there was a report that captured the


PSI still occupying the WC

The AiG Performance of Services Index for October is out this morning and if its to services growth that we are going to turn to offset falling mining growth then there is more work to do. The headline index rose 0.9 points to 42.8 but remains well inside contractionary territory: On the sectors there may


Macro Investor Volume 1, Number 19

The world is awaiting the results of the US presidential election on Tuesday and while plenty of Americans would prefer a  Republican in charge, the markets – fed by expectations of fiscal largess and monetary accommodation – are this time  undoubtedly voting for the left-wing candidate. All well and good of course for as we


The battle for tax

The unwinding of an era of supercharged growth in tax revenues is proving to be very boring indeed. Here is what the last ten years of total Federal revenues looks like: It was all so happy when the pie just kept on growing. But since 2007, the pie is unchanged (though better this past year)


Macro Investor this week

We’ve spoken at length of feedback loops, self-referencing signals and market reflexivity at Macro Investor, but until now we haven’t discussed these in the specific context of the ultimate economic spin-cyle: the US presidential election. This week, markets will be drawn more than ever to the minutae of Obama and Romney’s daily campaigns, searching for an indication


Weekend links

Global Macro: Barclays case shocks energy market. FT North America: Gold price plunge suggests traders fear less QE3. FT Yep Solid jobs report. Calculated Risk, Calculated Risk, Tim Duy Investment grade spreads hitting post-GFC lows. Sober Look  Lumber prices jump on Sandy. WSJ Companies warn on fiscal cliff. NYT The relationship between jobs and GDP. Econbrowser Stocks


Abbott on productivity

I know what you need on this tired Friday afternoon. Tony Abbott talking about productivity! Enjoy. DEREGULATING FOR A MORE PRODUCTIVE ECONOMY This is an important and timely conference because it’s not about who is or who isn’t winning the short term political battle but about who has a plan for the long term future


Tradie surplus

The HIA has released its quarterly report into tradie availability and while the result is not bad, the emerging suplus falling slightly, it will only spur on the macro Mandarins looking to reverse yesteryear’s adjustment to a mining-led labour force. The latest HIA Trades Report for the September quarter provides a profile of skilled labour


Producer prices moderate

ABS Q3 Producer Prices is out and shows a moderate level of wholesale inflation on the month up 0.5% but quite subdued year on year at 1.1%. The internals show the dollar still heavily at work in containing prices: Nothing here to influence next Tuesday.


AFR talks up the Australian dollar

Jonathon Shapiro of the AFR has a disconcerting opinion article today on the demand among foreign investors for Australian debt. He recounts a tale of foreign guests of the Commonwealth Bank touring Sydney’s The Rocks to listen to the RBA’s Phil Lowe over dinner: “…from China, Russia, Japan, Ukraine, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and beyond were not


RBA Index of commodity prices dumps again

The RBA’s index of commodity prices for October is out and continues its recent dump. If you’re wondering why since iron ore has been powering it’s simple, longer term coal contracts are now getting lowered following falls earlier in the year: Preliminary estimates for October indicate that the index fell by 3.5 per cent (on a monthly


Gloom galore from the greybeards

From the annual Melbourne Institute economic palava comes a couple of sobering views. First from BHP via the AFR: Iron ore prices will drop and BHP will become a producer of middle-income commodities such as shale gas and potash, according to a senior executive of the mining giant, who has also urged Australia to reform


Another car bailout looming?

From the AFR: A strategic car parts maker, Autodom, has indefinitely shut plants in Melbourne and Adelaide that employ about 400 workers, raising the prospect of production halts at the car assembly plants of Ford Australia and GM Holden. …Chief executive Calvin Stead used a statement to express disappointment at the “lack of support” from


China’s official PMI crawls into the positive

China’s October official PMI has managed to crawl back into positive territory up …points to 50.2, right on expectations. Perhaps someone should tell the Chinese that the odd miss will make them look more credible! New orders and new export orders improving both are doing so at a significantly slower rate after just one month in


NAB online retail index powers on

From NAB: Australian online retail sales up 23% yoy in September, but the level is still modest compared to traditional sales For the year to September 2012, Australia’s online retail sales totalled $12.1 billion. This figure is equivalent to 5.5% of the traditional bricks & mortar retail sales (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food) for


Q3 export prices hit

No surprise of course but Q3 export prices from the ABS have taken a dive on the bulks: -6.4 was bank on consensus while import price were  lower than thought at at -2.4. Here are the charts: An obvious downtrend in place. For import prices it’s sideways to down: Here are the components, for imports:


Macro Investor: What’s ailing new home construction?

The latest new home sales data for September, released by the Housing Industry Association, revealed an industry under increasing pressure. According to the HIA, new home sales slumped to their lowest level in 18 years. The slump in new home sales prompted Matthew Quinn, the head of Australia’s largest diversified property group, Stockland, to declare