David Llewellyn-Smith


ASX golden bull is born

And running. The Lunatic RBA’s AUD thermal is still in play: Yields dead: XJO is flat: Big Iron is soft: Big Oil as well, barring the evil Santos: Big Gold is running after solid results from NCM and EVN, not to mention the incipient gold bull market: Big Banks have faded the DoleHider bounce as


The sinking wreckage that was once University of Queensland

Via Paul Frijters at Club Troppo: The management of the University of Queensland, and in particular Peter Hoj and Peter Varghese, stand condemned today by the international media, by both Labor and Liberal politicians, by both left-wing and right-wing Australians, by its own students, and by the powerful pro-American lobby. That management unleashed a shit-storm on


AMA head: Victoria “hearbeat from catastrophe”

Horrible stuff at News: Australia’s leading doctor appeared to be on the verge of tears this morning as he described an impending disaster in Victoria. Tony Bartone, the president of the Australian Medical Association, said there has been an “astronomical explosion” in cases in the state’s care homes. “Our residents in aged care facilities are


Mortgagee and renter confidence craters

Via Martin North: The latest results from our household surveys reveals that after a small recovery last month, confidence has deteriorated again. This is data to mid July, and includes the recent impact of renewed lock-downs in some areas. Indeed, significantly the Melbourne lock-down, and the broader concerns about COVID are responsible for the latest


Wilson: Stock prices only go up

Matthew Haupt is a lead portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management at the AFR: Highly complex and unpredictable, a second wave effect is likely to lead to one of three outcomes: The virus takes hold and economic conditions deteriorate. Governments alternate between opening and closing economies. The virus is contained, driving a strong economic recovery.


Electricity prices slump briefly with gas

Don’t hold your breath. At the AFR: Wholesale electricity prices traded at the lowest in five years as the coronavirus lockdown crimped energy demand, especially from businesses in NSW and Queensland. The latest quarterly report from the Australian Energy Market Operator confirmed the downward trend in prices over the past 18 months. Average spot wholesale


Gold rockets higher

The AUD is still bubbling away this morning despite Victoria’s virus calamity (thanks RBA): Bonds are dead as the Dodo: Stocks have backed away from resistance but the chart is bullish: Gold is the story de jour. Up she rockets: Big Iron has been sucked down by an ordinary BHP print: Big Gas is OK:


Leading index raises an eyebrow

Via Westpac: • The six- month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from –5.29% in May to –4.44% in June. Despite another modest improvement this month, the Index growth rate remains in


RBA and Treasury greenlight predatory lending

Via the AFR: The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has decided not to appeal to the High Court its case against Westpac for alleged responsible lending failures, after the heads of the Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury both privately warned it would exacerbate economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19. Sources told The Australian Financial Review


AFR: Only Nazis resist the gas cartel

Via the AFR: Santos’s proposed Narrabri gas project would turn the rich plains of the north-west NSW farming region into a “toxic dump”, Warrumbungle Shire Councillor Kodi Brady told the state’s Independent Planning Commission on Tuesday. It was the second of seven scheduled hearing days on Santos’ planning application for the $3.6 billion coal seam


LNG white elephants worthless

Another writedown of the value of Australia’s worthless LNG export refrigerators today: More writedowns to come with those long-range forecasts still too high for oil and, as we go forward, crashed spot prices will overtake Brent benchmarks in Asia as well. By my calculations, that’s now roughly $4bn in writedowns for a $6bn investment, in


$8bn property parasite rorts JobKeeper

Via Michael West: Mirvac, an $8 billion property juggernaut, is claiming the JobKeeker subsidy. Michael West reports on large corporations rorting taxpayers by pocketing their employees’ PAYG tax while avoiding their obligation to pay entitlements to workers they have sacked. While regaling shareholders with big-ticket commercial property spending proposals, Mirvac has concocted a devious plan to usurp


Ignore credit card spending data

A little brouhaha today around new CBA credit card data:   I have been warning against using this as a guide to consumption for some time. This is based on experience. I have seen huge leaps in spending in the past that did not register at all in wider consumption. The state breakdown makes the


UBS: SME calamity to smash banks

Via the excellent Jonathon Mott at UBS: Direct exposure to small businesses – 18% of SME book in deferral Limited disclosure is available breaking down the 220,000 business loans (total ~$60bn) that are currently on loan repayment deferral until Sept/Oct (or Mar-21). ANZ and WBC provided a broad industry breakdown of their deferred business loans,


What’s happened to Chris Joye’s housing bull market?

Until a few weeks ago, my Twitter feed was filled with Flying Circus taunts about an imminent housing bull market. Today there is only a few sad posts referencing vaccines: Oxford coronavirus vaccine shows promise in early trial https://t.co/pU9BAfMRG6 via @financialtimes — christopher joye (@cjoye) July 20, 2020 Joye’s original forecast was that by September


Consumer confidence down some more

Where the virus goes the consumer follows: ANZ-Roy Morgan Aus Consumer Confidence fell again, on Melbourne’s lockdown and Sydney’s rising case numbers, but the drop is nowhere near as bad as mid-March. ‘Current finances’ has actually risen since May, despite overall confidence being down almost 8%. #ausecon @DavidPlank12 pic.twitter.com/KBrdYTXXqz — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) July 20, 2020