David Llewellyn-Smith


Austrian Government: Will do more of same when unstimulus fails

It’s ineptitude on a grand scale. First, put forth a policy that defies all basic economic logic, from Domain: Small business is cautious about hiring more people during the pandemic despite incentives in the federal budget aimed at a business-led recovery from the recession. …Peter Strong, head of small business advocates COSBOA, says the $4


Past time Victoria opened

At MB we’ve been patient with lockdowns but that time has passed. Victoria has contained the virus and it’s time to open up: Local cases are very small and consistent: Unknown source cases are tiny: Based upon NSW experience, total cases should be containable at this level with contact tracing, especially coming into summer: Manchurian


Newpoll: Budget delivers margin of error gain

Putting lippy on the Coalition pig as usual, is Murdoch Propaganda HQ: Four in five voters have backed the Morrison government’s income tax cuts, claiming they will be better off, with a majority of Australians believing the budget stimulus will drag the economy out of COVID-19 recession. An exclusive post-budget Newspoll conducted for The Australian


RBA: Immense property glut everywhere!

Friday’s RBA FSR had one section that is a must read in its entirety: Household and Business Finances in Australia The large contraction in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is testing the resilience of some Australian households and businesses. A broad range of income support policies are softening the effect of the economic downturn. However,


Herr Frydenberg is Austrian not Australian

At Murdoch’s Coalition Propaganda HQ the budget is a cash splash with no equal: Millions of workers will have a pay cheque boost within weeks after the federal budget was rushed into law — including tax cuts projected to inject $7bn into the economy by mid-2021. Scott Morrison’s economic ­recovery plan, which passed both houses


S&P: Aussie banks to struggle

Via Banking Day: The recovery for Australia’s banks will be “a drawn-out affair”, and they will struggle to regain pre-COVID earnings metrics even as credit losses recede, according to a new report from S&P Global Ratings. Weak business and consumer sentiment is likely to remain the main impediment to credit growth. “In our base case,


CS: Australian dollar to 70 cents

Via Credit Suisse: The RBA decision on 6 Oct has reinforced the possibility of an easing announcement at the upcoming 3 Nov rate decision: with several speeches by RBA officials keeping policy expectations in focus between now and the decision, we see our pre-US elections AUDUSD 0.70 target as still intact. Two weeks ago we


We should make the quadrilateral into an “Asian NATO”

Via National Review: When Mike Pompeo traveled to Tokyo to meet his counterparts from Japan, Australia, and India for talks this week, some observers speculated about the creation of an “Asian NATO” to counter China’s malign activity in the region. That’s been one constant refrain about this four-country “Quad” in the lead up to the Tokyo


Albanese surges into Depressionberg Unstimulus vacuum

Here’s Anthony Albanese budget reply speech: ANTHONY ALBANESE MP LEADER OF THE AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY MEMBER FOR GRAYNDLER BUDGET IN REPLY 2020 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PARLIAMENT HOUSE CANBERRA THURSDAY, 8 OCTOBER 2020 My fellow Australians. We live in a great country. Amidst all the chaos and hardship that has shaken our world in 2020 –


Why the OECD should tell Cormann to bugger off

Via the AFR: Prime Minister Scott Morrison has asked Labor to support nominating Finance Minster Mathias Cormann to become the next secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Mr Morrison will announce later on Thursday morning that the government will nominate the outgoing Finance Minister for the Paris-based role which has a tenure


As carry trades flip negative, has the Australian dollar topped?

Via Credit Suisse: While we had previously looked to fade backups in rates ahead of the election — given our expectation for fiscal stimulus discussions to remain stuck, corporate supply to taper off, and the Fed to keep conditions accommodative — the meaningful change to the election calculus overwhelms these considerations and suggests leaning short


You’re fired! Loser Trump polls sink

The thing about being a “strongman” populist winner is that you need always to be one. If you start to look vulnerable, like a loser on The Apprentice, then the gloss quickly turns to rust as what was formerly teflon-coated rhetoric feels more like secondhand car salesmanship.  That is where El Trumpo is today, via


COVID-20 Winter is coming

Cross-posted from Swiss Medical Weekly. Summary A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 100,000 confirmed infections and 4000 fatalities (as of 10 March 2020). The outbreak has been declared a pandemic by the WHO on Mar 11, 2020. Here, we explore how seasonal variation


Property locusts pointlessly buzz Depressionberg Unstimulus

Here is the problem for Depressionberg Unstimulus in black and white from a hilarious buzzing swarm of property locusts, at the AFR: David Harrison, head of one of the country’s biggest property fund managers, Charter Hall [said] “They are showing leadership. They are borrowing money. They are subsidising the economy that needs to be subsidised,”


Rumour: Empty Chair seen mulling budget

There’s a press rumour that an empty chair has been seen mulling the budget, at The Australian: Anthony Albanese will use his first budget reply speech to roll out major economic and social policies, including productivity reforms aimed at repairing skills shortages, and to deliver a pre-­election pitch to women, young families, blue-collar workers and


Scummo tax cuts temporary for workers, permanent for rich

Via The Australia Institute: Tax Cuts: Temporary for Low and Middle Earners, Permanent for High Earners New analysis from The Australia Institute has found that the income tax changes announced in the Budget yesterday will disproportionately advantage wealthy Australians both now and into the future. The limited, temporary benefit that will flow to Australians on