David Llewellyn-Smith


A better virus day for VIC and NSW

NSW: 7 new cases of #COVID19 have been diagnosed in NSW between 8pm on 22 July and 8pm on 23 July. For the latest list of COVID-19 locations, visit: https://t.co/6PUOQ40ESo pic.twitter.com/Ty1BxiEM83 — NSW Health (@NSWHealth) July 24, 2020 VIC is expected at around 300. The Chart: Neither state is out of the woods.


Inside him, inside his anus, the virus fed and fattened

So says Crikey’s Bernard Keane without realising he is doing so: As Victoria is discovering, and the rest of us may yet discover, COVID-19 is perfectly habituated to a 21st century economy centred around services delivered by outsourced, precarious workforces. Daniel Andrews, whatever his faults, at least recognises the role of insecure work in driving


Gold surges as Robinhooders pile in

And up she goes! Via ZH: For SLV, the number of RH users holding the ETF has surged from around 15,000 to 20,000 in the last few days… … making it the 16th most popular pick on Robinhood as of the past 24 hours. In GLD, we have seen less of a sudden surge so


CCP sabotages Pavlou Supreme Court hearing

Via freedom fighter Drew Pavlou: AMBUSH: Treachery from the Chinese Consulate today. Refused to send lawyers, but stuck to the shadows sending unmarked covert agents to terrorize Hong Kongers present and stop them testifying. Unjustly submitted documents to court without serving us. NO RESPECT FOR THE LAW! — Drew Pavlou 柏乐志 (@DrewPavlou) July 24, 2020


CBA flash PMI lifts

As you’d expect: The latest Commonwealth Bank Flash Composite PMI® signalled an improvement in growth momentum during July as the economic recovery from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) downturn continued. Business activity increased at the fastest pace since April 2017, with the overall expansion driven by a sharp rise in services activity. Total new orders


Australian dollar smashed with FANGs

Having some image problems today so no charts. Westpac has the wrap: Overnight Market Wrap Global market sentiment: Sentiment weakened amid growing US-China tensions and disappointing US jobless claims data. The S&P500 fell 1.2%, defensive currencies outperformed, and bond yields fell slightly. Currencies: The US dollar index is down 0.3% on the day, making a low


S&P warns on AAA again

Via S&P: MELBOURNE (S&P Global Ratings) July 23, 2020–S&P Global Ratings today said the treasurer’s economic and fiscal update released this morning is consistent with the ‘AAA’ rating and negative outlook on Australia (see “Australia Outlook Revised To Negative As COVID-19 Outbreak Weakens Fiscal Outcomes; ‘AAA/A-1+’ Ratings Affirmed,” published April 8, 2020). The extension and refinement of the government’s


Gas cartel gloats as it gouges

The gas cartelier can’t help itself: In short, STO offset international weakness with domestic gouging. Hoocoodanode! We should give it back a fixed-price domestic contract based around $5Gj for domestic reservation. It charged about $8Gj in Q2 even as the volumes it supplied both here and overseas cratered.


Australian manufacturing is not coming back

Via the ABC: The widespread shutdown of global supply chains caused by COVID-19 has been good news for Adelaide metal printing company AML3D. “We’ve seen quite a reasonable increase, probably two-fold from what we would normally get,” founder and managing director Andy Sales said. His company makes metal parts, such as propellers and compressors for


Westpac: Australian dollar support broadening

Via Westpac: end-Sep forecast is 0.70, though a soft USD should keep lending support near term AUD’s rally to above 0.71 coincides with the MSCI World index reaching highs since Feb, keeping the Aussie’s traditional positive correlation with risk appetite firmly intact. support is broader than equities however, with commodity prices accelerating in recent weeks,


NSW outbreak tracking VIC

Nineteen new cases today: 19 new cases of #COVID19 have been diagnosed in NSW between 8pm on 21 July and 8pm on 22 July. For the latest list of COVID-19 locations, visit: https://t.co/6PUOQ3J3tO pic.twitter.com/LatYpL5uBO — NSW Health (@NSWHealth) July 23, 2020 More: That is freakin’ everywhere. The chart versus VIC is not encouraging though it


Depressionberg announces his depression

Not much to report in the Budget update. Basically, because the deficits don’t matter anyway and the economic forecasts are worthless as the second wave wreaks havoc. Noteworthy is two consecutive years of falling growth. A depression in other words: Interestingly, Depressionberg has destroyed the ABS’s jobs numberwang: We prefer the Roy Morgan definition which


ASX golden bull is born

And running. The Lunatic RBA’s AUD thermal is still in play: Yields dead: XJO is flat: Big Iron is soft: Big Oil as well, barring the evil Santos: Big Gold is running after solid results from NCM and EVN, not to mention the incipient gold bull market: Big Banks have faded the DoleHider bounce as


The sinking wreckage that was once University of Queensland

Via Paul Frijters at Club Troppo: The management of the University of Queensland, and in particular Peter Hoj and Peter Varghese, stand condemned today by the international media, by both Labor and Liberal politicians, by both left-wing and right-wing Australians, by its own students, and by the powerful pro-American lobby. That management unleashed a shit-storm on


AMA head: Victoria “hearbeat from catastrophe”

Horrible stuff at News: Australia’s leading doctor appeared to be on the verge of tears this morning as he described an impending disaster in Victoria. Tony Bartone, the president of the Australian Medical Association, said there has been an “astronomical explosion” in cases in the state’s care homes. “Our residents in aged care facilities are


Mortgagee and renter confidence craters

Via Martin North: The latest results from our household surveys reveals that after a small recovery last month, confidence has deteriorated again. This is data to mid July, and includes the recent impact of renewed lock-downs in some areas. Indeed, significantly the Melbourne lock-down, and the broader concerns about COVID are responsible for the latest


Wilson: Stock prices only go up

Matthew Haupt is a lead portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management at the AFR: Highly complex and unpredictable, a second wave effect is likely to lead to one of three outcomes: The virus takes hold and economic conditions deteriorate. Governments alternate between opening and closing economies. The virus is contained, driving a strong economic recovery.


Electricity prices slump briefly with gas

Don’t hold your breath. At the AFR: Wholesale electricity prices traded at the lowest in five years as the coronavirus lockdown crimped energy demand, especially from businesses in NSW and Queensland. The latest quarterly report from the Australian Energy Market Operator confirmed the downward trend in prices over the past 18 months. Average spot wholesale


Gold rockets higher

The AUD is still bubbling away this morning despite Victoria’s virus calamity (thanks RBA): Bonds are dead as the Dodo: Stocks have backed away from resistance but the chart is bullish: Gold is the story de jour. Up she rockets: Big Iron has been sucked down by an ordinary BHP print: Big Gas is OK:


Leading index raises an eyebrow

Via Westpac: • The six- month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from –5.29% in May to –4.44% in June. Despite another modest improvement this month, the Index growth rate remains in