David Llewellyn-Smith


China readies growth cut as coronavirus damage spreads

Leading us off is the politics and practicalities, via Sinocism: There are still no indications the new coronavirus outbreak is under control. Xi chaired a Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) meeting Monday to discuss the virus, the second publicized PBSC meeting on the virus in nine days, though unlike the official CCTV report January 25th meeting,


Chinese markets pulverised

They’re open. Perhaps ill-advisedly. Shanghai is down nearly 8%: CNY is limit down: Iron ore futures are limit down: The wider commodity complex is put to the sword: Some data flow too. Industrial profits were weak for December: In 2019 , industrial enterprises above designated size realized a total profit of 619.955 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.3% over the previous year ,


Virus breaches stocks gamma

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Most of the headlines are still about the coronavirus, and its potentially severe impact on economic growth. But the underlying signal to monitor is volatility. We are witnessing a surge in equity market implied volatility, which could have some non-linear, and negative consequences in the short term. 2020 was


It begins. Chinese oil demand crashes

It begins. Via Bloomie: Chinese and Western oil executives, speaking on condition of anonymity because they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said the decline was measured against normal levels for this time of year. It’s a measure of the current loss in demand, rather than the average loss since the crisis started, which


China coronavirus cases ramp again

Latest update: At 04:00 on February 2nd, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 2829 newly diagnosed cases (2103 cases in Hubei Province) and 186 new severe cases (139 cases in Hubei Province). There were 57 more deaths (56 in Hubei Province and 1 in Chongqing City), 147


Bushfires incinerate ScoMo polls as he does same with virus

The Morrison Government is the worst I have ever seen: stupid, corrupt and entirely absent policy process. It therefore deserves everything that it gets in the polls, via The Australian: An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows popular support for the Coalition tumbling to 38 per cent, with the Prime Minister battling to ­recover from the


Coronavirus treatment advances

Via Reuters comes some good news: Thai doctors have seen success in treating severe cases of the new coronavirus with combination of medications for flu and HIV, with initial results showing vast improvement 48 hours after applying the treatment, they said on Sunday. The doctors from Rajavithi Hospital in Bangkok said a new approach in


Australia faces calamity

I am not going to sugarcoat this. There is enough of that in the mind control property media to make a freedom-loving liberal chunder. Australia faces calamity. The formulation of the gathering catastrophe is simple. Coronavirus is loose in China. The Chinese Communist Party has declared war upon it and must win lest it jeopardise


Chinese coronavirus body count steepens

A special Sunday post for a truly unusual and alarming situation. From China this morning: At 04:00 on February 1st, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 2590 newly confirmed cases (1921 cases in Hubei Province) and 315 severe cases (268 cases in Hubei Province). An increase of 45


Airport workers thrown to Coronavirus wolves

The Morrison Government really doesn’t want to cut its China lifeline. You can feel in the water, in the burning air, in every contradictory statement by its floundering MPs, in the selling out of workers at the airport, via Bloomie: The union representing security workers at Australia’s biggest airports threatened to strike unless members are


SmoCo crashes renewable investment

As if we needed this, at the AFR: Investment in renewable energy projects collapsed by more than 50 per cent last year, according to fresh data from the Clean Energy Council that counters Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s claim of “record” spending in the area. The number of large-scale renewable energy projects that reached financial close


Chinese PMIs heat into virus freeze

China’s dubiously managed economic data is going to find the next few months a challenge. Take today’s January PMIs. Manufacturing eased a touch: In January 2020 , China’s manufacturing purchasing manager index ( PMI ) was 50.0% , a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month . From the enterprise scale, large enterprises PMI was 50.4% last month fell 0.2 percentage points, medium-sized enterprises PMI was 50.1% , last month fell 1.3 percentage points, large


Who trusts Scotty from Marketing to govern a virus crisis?

Via the AFR’s Phil Coorey: The former fire chiefs had been begging the Prime Minister for a meeting since April to impress upon him the severity and scale of the forthcoming fire season and the need for increased resources such as firefighting aircraft and military deployment. For months they were fobbed off and their advice


UBS: Australian virus impact “many multiples” of SARS

Via the UBS team: While it’s too early to know the full potential impact of coronavirus 2019-nCoV, it is clearly another negative for the economy, on top of the catastrophic bushfires. While there’s some comparison to SARS in 2003, the economic link between Australia and China is multiples larger now. In 2003, Australian exports to


Coronavirus count roars on

Daily body count in China is now 213 deaths  and 9,692 cases. Mortality rate at 2.4%. Here’s the full statement: From 00:00 to 2400 on January 30, 2020 , Hubei Province newly added 1220 cases of pneumonia infected by new type of coronavirus (including: 378 in Wuhan, 55 in Huangshi, 31 in Shiyan, 123 in