Houses and Holes

9

Gottiboff: Old people power retail

More steaming rubbish from Gottiboff today: I have a warning for Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg——many oldies don’t like what you are doing. It all starts with the Reserve Bank, which believes that if it lowers interest rates it will lower unemployment. Ranking second and third are retail and construction. There is no doubt that

82

ScoMo takes huge dump with “tiny homes” push

Nothing makes my blood boil more than “tiny homes”. Whether it is the buyers or sellers of the sardine cans, acceptance of their existence represents a gigantic failure of the Australian political economy. Those Millennials that Domain so loves to quote as they gasp out a few words from diaphragms crushed between kitchen cabinet and bed,

29

Is Bitcoin back?

Bitcoin is back: I won’t even pretend that this is sustainable. Nothing has changed for crypto in my book. It is as worthless and useless as ever. With the same inbuilt contradiction: that if it succeeds it can only fail, given it’s only purpose is subvert a fiat currency system that it does not control.

10

We’re all Uber drivers now

At the AFR: Finding jobs for Harriet Blomfield, 18, has been easy. But she would prefer to not have to work four different gigs. The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates that as at March 2019, around 979,583 people had secondary jobs. This is up from 853,248 in March 2017, 852,311 in March 2015, and 782,756

1

Centre Alliance drive for gas reservation lives

Via The Saturday Paper: The federal government is considering further measures to ease the financial burden on pensioners and new moves to force domestic gas prices down, in a deal to secure enough senate support to legislate its proposed tax cuts in their entirety. South Australian senator Rex Patrick and his Centre Alliance colleague Stirling

17

Roubini: Global recession 2020

Via Nouriel Roubini: Across the advanced economies, monetary and fiscal policymakers lack the tools needed to respond to another major downturn and financial crisis. Worse, while the world no longer needs to worry about a hawkish US Federal Reserve strangling growth, it now has an even bigger problem on its hands. Last summer, my colleague Brunello

1

Fiscal bust: Recessionberg hearts surplus as NSW Budget austerity arrives

Ross Gittins wants to see Keynesian stimulus: … any fiscal stimulus is very short run, so as to support the economy before monetary stimulus fully kicks in, thereby minimising the harm done. Remind you of anything? The package of budgetary measures – the cash splashes and shovel-ready capital works – designed mainly by Treasury’s Dr

0

Daily iron ore price update (Dalian pin)

Spot eased. Paper was bashed Friday night. Steel is going nowhere, a standing warning for the bubble. The charts for June 14, 2019: Reuters has more: China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange said on Friday that it would raise trading limits and margins for the iron ore futures contract for September delivery , effective from June 18.

31

Fair Work: 47% of regional anus economy stealing wages

Welcome to your new economic model at SmartCompany: A whopping 725 workers have been back-paid more than $330,000 after a series of Fair Work Ombudsman (FWO) raids identified worrying levels of wage theft in regional Victoria and NSW. Less than three weeks after recovering $580,000 in stolen wages from regional businesses across Australia’s eastern seaboard,

22

UBS: Tight HEM “material” for Sydney, Melbourne housing rebound

Via the excellent Jonathon Mott at UBS: We estimate the RBA rate cuts and APRA’s removal of its interest rate serviceability floor may improve maximum borrowing capacity by around 14%. However, these changes need to be considered in the context of ongoing tightening, in particular a new HEM methodology, the rollout of Comprehensive Credit Reporting

10

Joye: Banks and RBA at war

It should read banks and AFR at war with RBA, via Chris Joye: With only two or three rate cuts left in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s kitbag, and a best-case scenario involving banks passing on half these changes to borrowers, debate is intensifying around whether the central bank will embrace quantitative easing (QE) more

28

Labor’s China hacks dance on Hong Kong’s grave

What a pack of treasonous arseholes Labor are. Via The Australian: Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews says he is “very proud” to have signed his state up to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative on trade and investment, despite his West Australian Labor counterpart, Mark McGowan, this week rejecting China’s push for his state

27

Gold shines for Australian dollar bears

From some dill at Domain: Gold has just had its longest winning streak in 18 months, as investors get nervous about the impact of the Trump trade wars on economic growth, and the US Federal Reserve looks likely to cut rates. Once again, excitement surrounding the “quasi-currency” metal is building – and the gold bugs

6

UBS: No ScoMo consumer bounce

Via UBS: Taking stock post-election – Has retail rebounded? No, we don’t believe it has. There is growing evidence that it has remained subdued / steady, albeit we note it is very early: i) Listed retailer updates and our channel checks suggest no change, with housing categories still softer (Figure 2); ii) Footfall has seen

13

Bill Evans examines RBA QE

Via Bill Evans at Westpac: Over the last two weeks, I have been visiting institutional investors, real money managers, and hedge funds in Europe and London. There has been extraordinary interest in the Australian story on this visit. Westpac has received considerable credit for its views over the last eighteen months. A year ago, when

1

Ice Age returns to global bonds

There’s no downside to being a permabull when it comes to bonds. Albert Edwards from ScoGen is he: A key part of the Ice Age has been the prediction that US and European 10y government bond yields would fall to levels never previously seen – replicating Japan’s experience. We were told that this would never

3

McGrathmageddon warns again, again, again, again, again etc…

McGrathmaggedon  not sounding too hot on housing bounce either: But McGrathmageddon himself was so bullish only two months ago: Firstly, I pointed out that in Sydney (and Melbourne), the 5–10% drop we’ve seen so far followed a growth cycle that added 60–100% to property values overall. Many Australians owned property for the entire duration of

2

Chinese credit accelerates again

The new debt impulse in China continued in May with total social financing at 1.4tr yuan and banks at 1.18tr: Shadow credit remains muted: New loans have accelerated sharply through the first five months of 2019: However, they are somewhat flattered by the base effect given last year’s deleveraging hit particularly hard mid-year. Thus, M2

46

Barnaby welcomes his new Chinese overlords

Good on Barnaby Joyce for debating the implications of Hong Kong for Australia at Domain: In its entire post-First Fleet history, Australia has not had to contend with the larger intercontinental political issues in isolation from its cultural and philosophical alliances. We’ve always had a larger, stronger partner. In the future we may have our

4

Centre Alliance patriots block tax cuts

Via The Australian: Finance Minister Mathias Cormann has ruled out doing deals with crossbench senators to win their support for the Coalition’s $158 billion personal income tax cuts, intensifying pressure on Labor to back the plan. The blanket refusal by the government’s Senate leader to negotiate special deals or buckle to demands from Pauline Hanson