Houses and Holes


Newspoll: Labor lead intact as One Nation bashed

Via Newspoll this morning: Pauline Hanson’s support has nose­dived, handing Scott Morrison the equal-best primary vote for the Coalition since just after the last election but also strengthening Labor’s lead. The first Newspoll since the May 18 election was called in the wake of the Coalition’s budget and Bill Shorten’s budget-in-reply speech puts the major


China’s “targeted stimulus” no good for dirt

Via Bloomie: Since last year, the government has doubled down on this kind of “targeted” stimulus, emphasizing the role of consumption and the promotion of a long-standing shift toward services and higher-value manufacturing — and away from expensive mega-projects. …Overall though, the relative restraint of the new stimulus strategy should help slow a build up


RBA confirms Chris Joye’s big short

The new RBA Financial Stability Review is out and brimming with anxiety: Risks to the household sector have increased over the past six months given weak housing market conditions. Housing prices have fallen significantly in Sydney and Melbourne after the earlier large run-up in prices, while in Perth and other miningexposed regions, prices have been


Scummo’s Adani scam drives wedge into himself

Via Stephen Long at the ABC: In terms of the careful language used by scientists and bureaucrats, the assessment was damning. Adani’s key water management plan for its coal mine in Queensland was so flawed its outcomes were unreliable, scientists from the CSIRO warned federal Environment Minister Melissa Price’s department. They were scathing about the


Why do central banks always miss the cyclical turn?

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: In recent times, we have seen a number of central bankers attempt to jawbone the yield curve steeper, or at least, downplay the significance of flat-to-inverted curves. And all have failed: RBA Deputy Governor Debelle suggested that 10-year bond yields are artificially low relative to terminal rate


Fake Treasury bashes Labor with fake tax hikes

Goodness me, via the AFR: Scott Morrison has launched an early assault on Labor’s tax agenda by releasing Treasury modelling showing his opponents proposed increases and refusal to match the Coalition’s tax cuts would tally $387 billion during the next decade. The use of Treasury modelling, which the government had prepared before Mr Morrison called


Property parasites swarm election

After nine years of debunking their lies, it seems MB is going to have its work cut out over the next five weeks. Form the AFR: More evidence has emerged that the level of negative gearing for new property is already much higher than Labor assumed when predicting how much extra revenue it will collect


Australian dollar belted with commosites

DXY firmed last night as EUR eased: AUD flamed and fell all the way back: EMs were better too: Gold fell: And oil: Plus metals: Big miners were hit: EM stocks too: As US junk flies: Treasuries sold: And bunds: Aussie bonds are still hung up: Stocks were roughly flat: So, the AUD still can’t


Has the market priced the election?

Via Shane Oliver: The Federal Election Some might be forgiven for thinking the wheels have fallen off Australian politics over the past decade with the same number of PM changes as Italy, a fractured Senate and “minority government” at times making sensible visionary long-term policy making hard. With the May 18 Federal Election offering a


BOQ canary croaks on banks

The AUD is a little soft this morning: The lunatic RBA has paralysed bonds for now: XJO is down moderately: Dalian is soft: And Big Iron: Big Gas is still enjoying its deluded political risk holiday: Big Gold is mixed: Big Banks are sick: Made that way by the croaking BOQ canary which has broken


Scummo’s Five Point Plan to destroy Australia

From Scummo today: Our plan will build our economy, without increasing taxes, securing the future for all Australians. #BuildingOurEconomy — Scott Morrison (@ScottMorrisonMP) 10 April 2019 Let’s unpack what these five points really mean. Scummo Point 1: 1.25m jobs over five years The Truth: Jobs growth of 1.25 million over five years implies weak


Coalition of corruption strikes again

More Coalition corruption today alas, via Domain: New emails have emerged that contradict a statement given by Liberal Party fundraising chief Andrew Burnes to the Australian Stock Exchange about a controversial meeting between his company, Helloworld, and his friend and major shareholder, the Australian ambassador to the United States, Joe Hockey. The emails show that


Greg Medcraft’s “absolute rubbish”

Via the AFR: The former corporate regulator Greg Medcraft has broken his silence on the Hayne royal commission, warning that using the courts against the banks could backfire given justice moves so slowl. He also described the recommendation to kill broker commissions as “absolute rubbish” because it overlooked the crucial role competition plays curbing misconduct.


The China coal warning Australia should heed

Via The Australian: Analysts have sounded a warning over short-term earnings at thermal coal exporters after a slump in demand sent prices to the lowest levels in more than a year. The slump came as Australian politicians engaged in another round of brawling over approvals for Adani’s 28 million-tonne-a-year Carmichael thermal coal mine in Queensland,