David Llewellyn-Smith


NSW has destroyed Morrison’s “gas-led recovery”

At the AFR comes the Morrison’s Government worst minister (and that’s saying something): Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor has demanded the NSW government hand over the modelling behind its energy infrastructure road map amid worries in Canberra it will push up power prices and among electricity suppliers that the policy will derail planned new gas


Measuring the US fiscal cliff

Via BofA: Fiscal cliff economics • Many pandemic-aid programs in the CARES Act are set to expire at the end of the year without action from Congress. • The expiration of federal UI programs—PUA and PEUC—alone could be a drag of 1.5pp in 1Q. Cutoff of other provisions will be additional headwinds. • We expect


China’s “dual circulation” drivel

Via News: It doesn’t sound all that riveting: the fifth plenum of the 19th Communist Party of China’s central committee. Nor does the 14th five-year-plan that sprung from the rubberstamping event, held in Beijing at the end of last month. But buried beneath the bureaucratic bumpf is a radical new plan that China hopes will


Morgan Stanly: Stock correction imminent

Via Morgan Stanley: November is the month when our macro team gets together to discuss its year-ahead outlooks across all asset classes. It’s a rigorous two-week process that allows us to collaborate and think about the next 12 months rather than the next 12 hours. As a strategist, I’m always torn between trying to forecast


Sweden declares herd immunity a failure

Via News: With three words, Sweden’s King Carl Gustaf captured the panic engulfing his country as it backflips on a controversial herd immunity strategy and coronavirus case numbers explode. On Instagram, he wrote, simply: “Hold on tight!” The message is echoing around the Nordic breakaway nation which, up until now, has run a distinctly different race


Bitcoin juiced by Fed or PayPal?

Via FTAlphaville: Bitcoin’s price has been mooning in the wake of the US election, so much so it is nearing the record highs it set back in December 2017, at pixel time trading above $18,000: Speculation as to what is causing the run-up is rife. Some blame growing distrust in authority following the yet-to-be conceded


Criminal mortgage push crucified by consumer groups

At the AFR: A submission to the government’s inquiry into the planned law changes from a range of groups, seen by The Australian Financial Review, says it is impossible to provide constructive feedback to proposals for change that are “fundamentally defective”. Organisations behind the submission include the Consumer Action Law Centre, Choice, Financial Counselling Australia,


Aussie flash PMI firms

Via Markit: Latest PMI data showed the expansion in the Australian private sector economy strengthened midway through the fourth quarter as containment measures were eased further. Business activity growth accelerated in November, led again by the service sector. Inflows of new business rose further, but at a noticeably slower rate when compared to output. Business


Hugh White goes all-in for Beijing

At Nikkei: Hugh White is emeritus professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University. He was Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence from 1995 until 2000 and was the inaugural director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Australia today is facing the most severe threat to its economic future in many decades, as Beijing


Is China entering a financial crisis?

Bartho wrote a nice piece yesterday: There has been a spate of Chinese companies defaulting on their bond repayments in the past few weeks, sending anxious ripples through the market that have even touched China’s sovereign bond yields and caused its central bank to pump liquidity into its bond market to try to calm it.


China demands Australia follow Labor into slavery

With friends like these, Labor doesn’t need enemies. Via CCP mouthpiece, Xinhua: The cold-war mentality and ideological prejudice are poisoning relations between China and Australia. Some anti-China politicians and media in Australia, who are seeking their self-interests, have spared no effort to smear China and incite China-phobia sentiment, with their most recent invention being claims


Australian dollar falls as US virus bites

DXY was down last night: But the Australian dollar fell anyway: Gold weakened again, oil lifted: Metals are on a tear: Miners struggled: EM stocks did OK: Junk is back: Treasuries were bid: Stocks did the two-step reversion from value to growth as yields fell. Can’t lose: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US weekly


Australia’s 14 demands for the resumption of ties with China

Presented with great fanfare, here are the demands from Australia to China before we’ll be doing anything to restore the relationship: Free and fair elections for all repressed Chinese peoples. The resignation of Xi Jinping in disgrace for human rights abuses and inflicting the worst plague in a century upon the world. A full-blown international


US virus deaths launch

Sadly the pandemic is about to enter its next dire phase. Cases are still surging along with hospitalisations and, as they flounder, deaths: Smoothed doesn’t look any better: The mortality rate has probably bottomed now as the death lag closes: El Trumpo‘s revenge is about to enter its final dark days as the economy remains


Your ABC can’t wait to sell you to China

Come on, ABC, lift your game: He-Ling Shi, an associate professor of economics at Monash University, said while some goods could be sold in other markets, industries like international education would have a harder time shifting towards countries other than China. “In the long run, Australia can find alternative sources to export our education services,


Australian unemployment numberwang rolls on

Via ABS Labor Force just now and the numberwang continues with an absurd 178k jobs created versus consensus of -40k based upon the ABS’s own payrolls data: Seasonally adjusted estimates for October 2020: Unemployment rate increased to 7.0%. Participation rate increased to 65.8%. Employment increased to 12,773,900. Employment to population ratio increased to 61.2%. Underemployment


ASX falls as virus impact grows

The AUD is down this morning. The hot money bet appears to be a weak jobs report: Bonds are bid and XJO is off yesterday’s gains: Big Iron is ignoring Dalian fireworks: The Big Gas value rotation has flamed out: Big Gold ouch. All the more so given BTC: Big Banks are mixed: Big Tech


ScoMo swats away Chinese wolf wankery

Good stuff from ScoMo on Sunrise: “Australia is a sovereign country, we make our own decisions according to the nation’s interest.” “If there are concerns indicated by that unofficial document that came out of the Chinese Embassy (it is) that Australia acting in our interests — having free media, having parliamentarians elected and being able


Coalition digs its energy hole so that it can fill it in

Here’s what Coalition brains trust, Brian Fisher, author of the Menzies Research Centre report Powering out of Pandemic: Unleashing the Potential of Gas, writes today at the AFR: The competitive advantages of natural gas in our changing energy mix are too great to be ignored, even by its would-be detractors. With two-thirds of Australia’s coal


RBA should butt out of foreign relations

Its position is preposterous and untenable on immigration. From Bill Evans at Westpac yesterday: The minutes of the November meeting along with a recent speech from the Governor emphasise a significant pivot in the Board’s approach to monetary policy. The labour market now takes centre stage. Consistent above trend growth will be required to lower


Captured APRA to release dividends?

Via banking plaything Wayne Byers of APRA: “We have deliberately never put in place [dividend] guidance for a long period of time because we want to stay agile, we want to stay flexible, we want to be able to be conscious of the environment that’s evolving.” “Our first set of of guidance only lasted for