David Llewellyn-Smith


Australian Government warns against all China travel

Unless you are a pellet of iron ore then listen up. Via the AFR: Foreign Minister Marise Payne said Australians should not travel to China as they face the risk of arbitrary detention, after two Australian journalists were rushed out of Shanghai on Monday night in a secretive operation following a tense five-day stand-off with


Jefferies: China decoupling to smash ASX

Brian Johnson at Jefferies has not minced words: On 20 July, we published Peking Duck and Beijing Beef detailing the rising frictions between Australia and China and some ASX200 implications emanating therefrom. The situation continues to deteriorate. Australia’s economic prospects are inextricably linked to China, given inbound Chinese immigration has been a strong contributor to


Stop press: Sydney Uni VC millionaire defends Chinese billions

Nothing to see here: University of Sydney vice-chancellor Michael Spence said he was baffled by a recent federal government probe into his university’s Confucius Institute, while giving evidence at the NSW government inquiry into the future of the state’s tertiary education sector on Monday. …Mr Latham said Australian universities had been forced to respond to


Weekly payrolls lift a little

Not much fun at the ABS for jobs. Slightly better job numbers and wages on the week but still terrible from March: Demographics: Sectoral splits: A tiny improvement on the week but the big question remains: how far below March is the new baseline for wages? Put another way, how large is the permanent income


A pandemic employment model

Via Calculated Risk: It is possible to consider the impact of the pandemic on employment as being similar to a large number of simultaneous worker strikes, and a concurrent severe recession. When a strike happens, a large number of jobs are immediately lost.  And then, when the strike is settled, the jobs are added back to


Morrison readies unemployed crusher

Via The Fake Left: A low-paid Australian worker laid off during the pandemic will receive the third lowest unemployment benefit in the OECD when the coronavirus supplement is reduced, according to expert analysis. Despite mass unemployment and an extended stage-four lockdown in Melbourne, the federal government plans to push ahead with a $300 cut to


Trump betting odds plunge

It’s looking more like US presidential betting markets are today tied up with stock market liquidity: As said last week, I wonder if there is some relationship between stock market gains and those plumping for Trump, beyond simple sentiment. The polls are still strongly blue:   Though Trump has gained in swing states: I still


Massive infrastructure simulus planned? Or just made up

So says Domain: Australia could build its way out of the deepest recession since the 1930s through a $220 billion pipeline of infrastructure projects that would transform the nation, deliver jobs and sharply increase the nation’s long-term productivity. The projects, on top of the government’s existing $100 billion infrastructure plan over 10 years, could be


Consumer confidence crawls in the mud

The solid rebound in ANZ Australian Job Ads in June and July – which saw more than half the pandemic losses recovered – did not continue into August, with just a 1.6% m/m rise. Victorian restrictions have undoubtedly put the brakes on. #ausecon #employment @cfbirch pic.twitter.com/tLLJLTPv63 — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) September 7, 2020


Daily iron ore price update (softness)

Iron ore prices for September 7, 2020: Spot still strong. Paper too. China imported 100.4mt of iron ore in August: I still think we’re roughly at peak imports. Steel exports were buggered, as you’d expect: Empty apartment sales are softening:   To wit: China Evergrande Group kicked off a nationwide sales promotion with its deepest ever


AFR and ABC pull “unsafe” journos from China

Sensible enough: #BREAKING Two Australian journalists have just landed in Sydney after being pulled out of China by their news organisations, on fears they were no longer safe. The two are Bill Birtles from the ABC and Michael Smith from the Australian Financial Review. @9NewsAUS #auspol — Chris Uhlmann (@CUhlmann) September 7, 2020 Hostage diplomacy


Why COVID-19 is the best thing to ever happen to Australia

Early in the New Year, I declared a calamity lay ahead: I am not going to sugarcoat this. There is enough of that in the mind control property media to make a freedom-loving liberal chunder. Australia faces calamity. The formulation of the gathering catastrophe is simple. Coronavirus is loose in China. The Chinese Communist Party


Mortgage market turns shuffling zombie

From CoreLogic weekly property indicators, the leading mortgage index has entered some kind of zombie state:   Materially down on last year and far down on previous. Remember that this is owner-occupiers only and investor mortgage are far worse. Listings are still providing some market support: But it is artificial given the huge fall in


Agents: “entire international student market has collapsed”

Via Michael Sainsbury at Crikey: Australia’s troubled international student market is beginning to take shape for 2021 and, whichever way you look at it, it’s disastrous. Just six short months ago, this sector was worth a bulked up $35 billion — about two-thirds of which is tuition. Now, industry insiders say that globally the market


New big wave surfing world record?

  I’ve been thinking about giving the new Melbourne wave pool a crack when it reopens. I used to be pretty good. See what I did yesterday? Not. @gregorymckenna As that your son? Geez, dude. He has some big ones. https://t.co/LLWHnFb5Rk — Gregor Samsa (@macromon) September 6, 2020


Is Afterpay credit and does it matter?

Via the AFR: Mr Comyn told a parliamentary committee the pay-in-four instalment model pioneered by Afterpay would trigger more competition, after US giant PayPal entered the market last week, sinking share prices across the high-flying ASX sector. …”I see the potential for [instalment] offerings to be competed away, or to evolve,” he said. Queensland Liberal


UNSW’s Pearson: Morrison must muscle-up to CCP hostage diplomacy

At The Fake Left no less: “No one is immune these days from arrest in China – tycoons, celebrities, journalists, the former head of Interpol – many people, both foreigners and locals, have disappeared into the Chinese justice system without clear explanations why,” Elaine Pearson, the head of Human Rights Watch Australia told Guardian Australia


Anatomy of a Nasdaq bubble

One has to be careful to sift what comes out of ZeroHedge. If it is taken literally then we’d all have dropped into caves long ago. But sometimes it does provide fantastic insights into market dynamics. Such as today with this cross-posted gem: It was back in July when we first reported that Goldman had observed a


Payment times bill passes

Via Banking Day: Large businesses and government enterprises will have to report on payment terms for their small business suppliers, following passage of the Payment Times Reporting Bill 2020 in the Senate last week. The Payment Times Reporting Scheme will apply to any business or government enterprise with annual income of A$100 million or more.


Gottiboff demands Canberra invade Melbourne

Fresh from shilling for the CCP, Gottiboff is back with more confected outrage in an attempt to bury last week’s: The state of Victoria is in grave danger of making its third catastrophic mistake in dealing with COVID-19. The first two mistakes have left the state in a perilous position, with widespread employment destruction and