It’s the Scummo wipe out now, via Newspoll: The results of the final Newspoll of the year show the Coalition’s primary vote at 35 per cent, Labor’s at 41 per cent and a two-party-preferred split of 45-55, which would equate on a uniform basis to the loss of 21 seats for the government. Alas for
Iron ore prices for December 7, 2018: Spot up. Paper up. Steel up. Coking coal is very strong but I don’t think that can last. Chinese iron ore port stocks continue to draw down, hitting 138.6mt last week. Chinese imports of iron ore for November were at 86.2mt and the year is tracking below 2018
From the OECD today: The latest OECD Economic Survey of Australia, to be released on Monday 10 December, assesses the continuing robust growth of the Australian economy, as well as the challenges to ensuring sustainable and more inclusive growth against a backdrop of globalization and technological change. The Survey discusses how Australian can limit financial sector risks,
It is a laugh a minute now for the politico-housing complex. First up the RBA, which “economists” say was actually bullish last week: Economists believe the market misinterpreted comments by Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Guy Debelle, whose speech on Thursday was received as dovish but in fact was “frank” and consistent in substance
I put it to you that this is one major reason why Sydney property is crashing and Melbourne trailing it down. From Domain: Foreigners are again making an impression on Sydney’s trophy home market but it isn’t the purchase of high-end mansions and penthouses keeping agents busy. It’s all about selling the Sydney home. Experts
DXY was soft Friday night. EUR and CNY strong: AUD was hammered across DMs: EMs were mixed: Gold broke higher: Oil tried on a robust OPEC deal but couldn’t: Base metals were soft: Big miners down: EM stocks too: And junk: Treasuries were bid bigly: Not bunds: Stocks slumped again: Westpac has the wrap: Market
China release trade and inflation data over the weekend and both showed it is slowing sharply. For trade, exports were 5.4% year on year and imports 3.0%, both large misses to expectations. The trade deficit is still large at $44.7bn: Inflation was also concerning. The CPI decelerated sharply: Aided by petrol: And the PPI slumped
I still have a third hypothetical bet open with Bill Evans that the next move in rates is down (having won the first two, not that he knows about it). I reckon the RBA will be cutting by June 2019. It would be earlier if not for the elections.
There’s a locust plague at News: Buyer’s agent Nick Viner believes now is the time to buy in Sydney and Melbourne, with many discounted premium properties available with minimal competition. “This environment is the absolute perfect time to buy because you’ve got more time to consider your options and there’s more choice in terms of
From our Chris today: To APRA’s immense credit, it has managed to pull off a minor miracle: bursting the bubble during the boom. Debelle has previously noted that there was no evidence of a wealth effect, or positive feedback loop into consumption, during the upswing when Melbourne and Sydney house prices surged 50 per cent
Via Argues: Brazil’s Samarco mine is likely to restart in early 2020, bringing a major source of high-grade iron ore back into the market, mining company Vale’s chief executive Fabio Schvartsman said today. “The worst part seems to be behind us,” Schvartsman said of the process to bring Samarco back on line after a fatal
New lows for the great ponzi scam: Doomed! For more try our podcast this week with Erik Tonwsend, crypo doyen:
Via the AFR: As Sydney and Melbourne house prices continue to fall, Mr Shorten signalled that an originally planned July 1, 2019 start date could be deferred until 2020. He said Labor remained committed to its three-year policy of reforming negative gearing to make the system fairer for first-home buyers against investors who now receive
AUD is still struggling through the morning: Bonds are paring gains but yields are now trending down nicely. More to come: ASX is hanging on at the cliff’s edge: Dalian has opened with a minor bid: Big Iron likewise: Big Gas is hopeful of an OPEC rescue. I am not: Big Gold has a Fed
Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for November. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November (with a range of estimates between 140,000 to 220,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%. Last month, the BLS reported
At the diplomatic level most definitely and that could deliver a market shock if it goes badly. Via NYT: As President Trump was arranging a trade truce with President Xi Jinping of China in Buenos Aires over dinner on Saturday night, his administration was coordinating the arrest of a top Chinese technology executive who was flying through
As we know, Aussie households are mired in an historic income recession: But it’s not enough for the Coalition. It wants even less money for workers, to wit: The Australian can reveal that Jobs and Industrial Relations Minister Kelly O’Dwyer has appointed six new deputy presidents — including four who have worked directly for employer groups
Via ASX: That’s now CSR, FBU, BKW and ABC all warning on the dwelling construction pipeline: It’s only the beginning and they’ve already gone and lost their minds…
It’s a long way out but not soon enough, via The Australian: Two of Australia’s biggest energy companies say they will delay investment in new generation capacity that could help drive down prices until there is more certainty around the direction of policy, after Scott Morrison’s “big stick” legislation to break up retailers who charged
Iron ore price charts for December 6, 2018: Spot down. Paper down more. Steel too. Planet coking coal drifting into its own orbit. I don’t expect much to happen between now and February. Look for flopping around in the $60-70 trading range.
DXY was soft last night. CNY too. EUR better: AUD was hosed across developed markets: And emerging: Gold tried and failed to rally: Oil was smashed: Base metals fell: Big miners broke: And EM stocks: Also junk: Treasuries boomed: As did bunds: Stocks fell sharply but recovered losses: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US
Goodbye Botox Boom: Construction sectors: Engineering construction (54.0 points trend) was the best performing sector in November, recording its 21st consecutive month of growth on the back of on-going strength in publicly funded investment in large-scale infrastructure projects. At the other end of the scale, apartment building activity (31.0 points trend) contracted for an eighth
From Guy Debelle, deputy governor of the RBA: It is now just over 10 years since the date that people most associate with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), namely 15 September, the day that Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.[1]There have been quite a number of articles written in recent months looking back at that time
UBS’ Jonathon Mott is out with more today on the mushrooming credit crunch: The banking sector is facing a period of substantial and sustained earnings pressure which is likely to last several years. The risk of the current credit squeeze turning into a credit crunch is real and rising, with the housing market now falling
I like John Kehoe. He has talent. But he should be careful of what company he keeps: One quarter of soft economic activity does not make a trend, so chatter about the Reserve Bank of Australia being forced to switch its bias to interest rate cuts is premature. …the fundamentals for the local economy remain
Via Martin North: DFA has released the November 2018 mortgage stress and default analysis update. Across Australia, more than 1,015,600 households are estimated to be now in mortgage stress (last month 1,008,000). This equates to 30.9% of owner occupied borrowing households. In addition, more than 22,500 of these are in severe stress. We estimate that
How? How did they do it? From the EIA: EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U.S. coal consumption has been falling since its peak in 2007, and EIA forecasts that 2018 coal consumption will
Via the ABC: Canada has arrested Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver, where she is facing extradition to the United States on suspicion she violated US sanctions against Iran, reports say. Meng Wanzhou, who is one of the vice chairs on the Chinese technology company’s board and the daughter of company founder Ren Zhengfei,
Via Domain: When NSW Opposition leader Luke Foley spectacularly resigned from Parliament amid a sexual harassment allegation, Labor strategists were bracing for a hit. …Yet Labor has not only recovered but is ahead. The latest Herald poll, conducted across the state on the weekend, has Labor leading the Coalition 51 to 49 on a two-party-preferred
Gotti has missed the boat: If by chance Scott Morrison can unite his party then suddenly he has three “bread, butter and cake” issues outside of the morass of the energy/gender issues to fight an election. I can’t see him winning, but the ALP’s outright rejection of the Liberals’ much-needed small business taxation appeal system
