David Llewellyn-Smith


US inflation how high for how long?

Nordea with the note. I see US inflation tumbling next year: We see clear risks of a big positive surprise to the May inflation report as well with core inflation around or just above 4%. The market is still buying the transitory inflation narrative but for how long? Lately, increasing (US) inflation has been the


Can a wolf warrior change his spots?

Not according to  Bill Bishop at Sinocism: Comment: David Bandurski of the China Media Project has written an excellent article on the Politburo’s collective study session on global discourse power and the wishful thinking in some quick takes about a change in tone/halt of “wolf-warriorism”. He provides good background on the discussant, Fudan University professor


Elderly, disabled shot up with Morrison vaccine lies

Bernard Keane at Crikey: The “Commonwealth remit” for the vaccination rollout, to use the term employed by the Department of Health, consists of four groups: aged care residents, aged care workers, disability care residents and disability care workers. Those groups formed the bulk of what the government in its vaccination rollout strategy called “Phase 1a”. The remainder


It’s not easy being the anti-China “tip of the spear”

Back in 2018 when MB readers understood clearly where the Australia/China relationship was heading even as the rest of the nation did not, Donald Trump confidante Steve Bannon summarised the US view succinctly: Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon has criticised Australia’s approach to an aggressive China, labelling it weak and saving his most


China’s stupid trade war delivers itself another shock

The China trade war on Australia is not going at all well. Iron ore is trading on a vast geopolitical premium. Damaged commodity trade flows have been redirected to other nations with a minimum of fuss. Australia’s current account surplus has skyrocketed to records. Based on outcomes so far, it’s the best thing to ever


Deutsche: US stimulus most extreme of all time

Deutsche with the note: Since the last CoTD, Bloomberg’s US financial conditions index has eased to fresh14-plus year highs. This index looks at money markets, various credit spreads and equity markets. However Bloomberg also compiles a financial conditions “plus” index where they include indicators of asset-price bubbles incorporating tech shares, housing markets and additional yield


Lombard: China property bust imminent

TSLombard with the note: Property investment slump. Real estate investment is set to slow in H2/21 on tighter credit and higher input costs. Falling land sales will hit local government revenue and investment. Beijing will welcome a property FAI slowdown as officials battle to rebalance the economy and curb soaring China PPI. After leading the


MS: Buy quality, stocks to correct

Morgan Stanley with a note that I largely agree with: Our discussions with clients are narrowing to two primary topics: Earnings and Inflation. On the former, we hear many saying earnings estimates are still too low. On the latter, the focus has become an obsession. On both fronts, we could beat a moment of (too)


Global industrial boom powers on

One million PMIs were released in the last 24 hours. Let’s take a look. At the headline level, the global PMI is still getting better, faster: What I am looking for is hints of slowing in new orders and new export orders. There are a few in the headwaters of global trade but not enough


Bill Evans: RBA turning hawkish too early

Bill Evans at Westpac with the note: As expected the Reserve Bank Board kept its policy settings unchanged at the June Board meeting. The key talking point from the Governor’s Statement was the omission of “The Bank is prepared to undertake further bond purchases to assist with progress towards full employment” when discussing its deliberations


Daily iron ore price update (absurd)

The ferrous complex took on the outlines of a circus yesterday as everything rallied. Spot was up. Paper up more overnight. Steel too: The trigger? This: Authorities had urged local long-process steel producers to cut production by 30%-50% in March to improve air quality, sparking supply concerns as the city accounts for more than 13%


No winter cooling for red hot mortgages

CoreLogic’s leading property indexes remain red hot. On the supply side, for sale inventory is still very low despite resurgent listings: On the demand side, we are yet to see any seasonal slowdown for winter mortgage issuance: Remember that this index only covers owner-occupiers and investors are also on the move now. In terms of