This is totally perverse from the ABC: South Australia is losing a very important battle — to win the hearts and minds of those migrating to Australia. Premier Steven Marshall wants to gain some ground by attracting skilled migrants to the state rather than Victoria and New South Wales, as the State Government holds a
Where’s the ever bullish Bloxo? Via HSBC: “While the [global] risks appear to have receded for now, this may be masking the growing risks from the second, which is gathering momentum and deserves more attention. “The deceleration in the flow of housing credit has been evident since at least early 2018 but has only recently
I gave up on the Baltic Dry many years ago when a shipping glut dislocated it from wider global economic activity. Is it time to revisit it? If so, it is not painting a pretty picture: There are a few reasons to be wary of the crash: China’s recent rolling import coal bans are piling
Via The Guardian: The former One Nation senator Brian Burston has denied allegations that he sexually harassed a staff member and retaliated against Pauline Hanson, his former leader, by accusing her of making unwanted advances towards him. After Hanson used a speech in the Senate on Tuesday night to accuse an unnamed senator of “serious
If you thought the banks were about release the spiggot on credit think again, via the AFR: The federal government has told the banks and regulators there will be a fresh industry inquiry in three years to ensure they have improved their behaviour and are treating customers better. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg wrote this week to
Iron ore prices for February 13, 2019: Everything down but easing. Who knows where we go next in the short term? So long as there are no more Vale shocks then I’d expect material downside over the next three months but that’s in the lap of the mining gods now.
DXY was strong again last night as EUR puked lower: The Australian dollar was bashed back into place versus the USD but did better against other DMs: And EMs: Gold sagged: Not oil: Base metals remain worried: Big miners are not: EM stocks fell: Junk did better: Treasuries were hosed: Bunds too: Stocks added modest
This is not good. Via the AFR: China has introduced jail terms for operators of “underground banks” illegally helping tens of thousands of its citizens transfer money out of the country to buy property overseas, in a move developers warn is a big blow to Australia’s real estate market. China’s Supreme Court quietly introduced stiff
From John Hewson at Domain, who keeps heading Scummo off at the pass: Scott Morrison is attempting to create some electoral victory from the jaws of his historic parliamentary defeat by launching a scare campaign being headlined as “Blame Shorten for boats”. Clearly, if any boats do arrive between now and the May election, the
It just gets more and more weird with each passing minute, via The Australian: The Young Liberals have launched a revolt against their senior Canberra counterparts, savaging the federal government’s “big stick” intervention in the electricity sector and calling for the resurrection of the national energy guarantee. The Young Liberals, who claim to be the
Via Martin North: In short, no, although I never argue that owner occupiers try to time the market. It causes too much agonising in Australia’s busted political economy. That said, these are the worst headwinds for Australian property in my lifetime. I’m not so shy about saying that investors should push property away with a ten
Why wait until there’s a crisis when you can just make one up! Via the AFR: The Morrison government has beefed up its border protection measures and will reopen the Christmas Island detention centre in anticipation of what it claims will be a resumption of the people smuggling trade. Prime Minister Scott Morrison made the
The Australian dollar has popped a little this morning after news that the housing bust is over with consumer sentiment just fine (or maybe it was the RBNZ hold): Bonds are getting hosed: Stocks missed the memo: Dalian is weak at the open: Big Iron powers on, especially poor quality dirt: I wonder when the
Via AOG: What, not the weather’s fault?
For the RBA comes a profile of its absurd self:
Via Westpac: Sentiment has recovered after a shaky start to the year. The previous survey in January had shown a sharp pull back, the Index dipping into pessimistic territory for the first time since late 2017. The February lift takes the Index back into ‘cautiously optimistic’ territory. While that may indicate some of last month’s
Yesterday’s NAB survey rebound was enough to trigger an Australian dollar rally but it’s not clear why, via Westpac: The massive services sector is in free fall: Capex hit news lows. Jobs were better: The industry view was OK but we know weakness is coming in construction. And the state view was sick as the
Well…of course it does. It doesn’t have any branches to distribute its mortgages, via The Australian: Macquarie chief Shemara Wikramanayake has backed the role mortgage brokers play for borrowers, acknowledging that the Hayne royal commission would prompt smaller banks to rethink distribution and more closely assess what customers would pay for loans. Commissioner Kenneth Hayne’s
Bank of England chief Mark Carney has some bad news for Australia, warning that: “(China) are not going to bail us out this time, I absolutely agree,” Carney said when asked about the ability of the world’s second-biggest economy to compensate for a slowdown in richer nations. But the most likely outcome was that the
Via AFR: Colourful Melbourne property speculator and local councillor Intaj Khan has put a portfolio of four housing sites in the city’s west on the market with expectations they could sell for almost $60 million. Cr Khan, who was found guilty of eight breaches of his duties as a Wyndham City councillor last year and
Missed this earlier in the week. Ross Gittins is helping lift Australian economic discourse for once: [A rate cut] isn’t [imminent]. It isn’t because, as he made plain in a speech on Wednesday – and reiterated in the statement on monetary policy on Friday – he remains confident the economy has slowed a bit, but no worse. His revised
Get ready for an avalanche of this fake news, via the AFR: Property investors are chasing falling prices, bargain-basement fixed rates, rising rental yields and bigger discounts as they rush to beat a Labor government’s negative gearing changes, agents and analysts said. Anecdotal accounts from real estate agents, representing sellers, and brokers’ agents, representing buyers,
It shouldn’t because he’s talking nonsense. Via Bluenotes: The fall in Australian house prices in 2018 was the largest since the financial crisis. But the implications for the broader economy are more important. It’s even possible that weaker house prices and a weaker economy combine into a negative feedback loop (although in my view this is unlikely). “All previous periods of declining
Iron ore prices for February 12, 2019: Spot is tumbling. Paper fell further overnight. The panic is ebbing. Clyde Russell has a nice little piece on where we’re headed: Firstly, Chinese steel mills can substitute higher-quality iron ore with lower grades, which are likely to be more readily available, but this will result in lower
DXY fell away last night as EUR caught a bid for no reason and CNY bounced: That was enough to drive the Australian dollar higher against DMs: It was mixed against EMs: Gold firmed: Oil too: Base metals said “no”: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks flew: With US and EM junk: Treasuries got caned:
Lots of hysteria around borders today as the Coalition friends set up for another Tampa election. Paul Kelly personifies the neurosis nicely: Labor has changed its stance, its policy and its heart on border protection. This is the enduring element in the present dramas. It is high-risk politics and misconceived policy by Bill Shorten that
Via The Guardian: The banking royal commission findings appear to have delivered a political fillip to Labor, with the opposition extending its lead over the Coalition 55% to 45% on the two-party-preferred measure. The new Guardian Essential poll, taken before Monday’s major party brinkmanship on asylum seekers in the lead-up to the resumption of parliament, puts the government’s primary
And quite rightly. Mortgage finance is getting slaughtered: Investors -28% y/y; but owner-occupiers also -16%; while developers weaken The accelerating fall in home loans shows tighter credit is playing out. Looking ahead, while the Royal Commission didn’t make material changes, we downgrade our long-held forecast peak-to-trough drop in home loans from ‘20% with risk of
Funny stuff in a carrion comfort kind of way, via AFR: Existing owner-occupier variable rates with principal and interest payments will rise by six basis points and those with interest only by 16 basis points. The hikes, which apply from February 21, impact all loan to value (LVR) bands. As mortgages and house prices crash.
Worth noting today that McGrathmaggedon has passed through -88% today since its preposterous float: No news since the December update but the mortgage crash is all we need to know. Surely it is now one of the great IPO failures of Australian history. Perhaps not the Dot Bomb as yet but it’s not over either…
