The Australian property market is worth $10tr. Here is what is coming to it. Chris Joye: What the RBA giveth, it now taketh away. Slashing its cash rate from 1.5 per cent to 0.1 per cent between June 2019 and November 2020 boosted Aussie house prices by 37 percentage points. A prudent person should now
DXY is once again a rocketship: AUD is the opposite. That JPY is still so weak tells us that this crash is only just getting started: The CFTC short is still only moderate: Oil eased: Metals are beginning to fret: Miners were smashed: EM stocks too: Junk jumped off the proverbial cliff: As short-end yields
Via FTAlphaville Ajay Rajadhyaksha is global chair of research at Barclays. Having seemingly successfully beaten back Covid — cases were below 100 last week, in a country of 1.4bn — China announced that it was open for business again. Can it last? Already, the signs are ominous. Shanghai officials this week increased testing capacity and
I have been at this point in the credit and economic cycle many times in my career and certain things always seem familiar. First the inversion of the yield curve, which is dismissed as a predictor of recession, despite its reliability. Then slightly later, as the economic data slows decidedly, the chorus of economists claiming
The ferrous complex was weak on June 9, 2022: I noted yesterday that CISA output is at all-time highs: And noted as well that housing starts are down 40% (and more) which once fully absorbed into steel output is 160mt less steel than last year, an enormous drop. Some explanation for the disparity arrived with
As it turns out, the only problem with the last election result is that Labor got too much of the vote. If we had a Teal minority government today the energy crisis would be all but over: Independent MPs Zali Steggall, Allegra Spender, Kylea Tink and Zoe Daniel on Thursday attacked gas companies and accused
Ah, the Australia Tax, brought to you by David John Wissler Knox who, you may recall, said this: As Santos worked toward approving its company-transforming Gladstone LNG project at the start of this decade, managing director David Knox made the sensible statement that he would approve one LNG train, capable of exporting the equivalent of
DXY is up and away: Confirming the end of the bear market rally is the forex crosses, notably the JPY flameout: Oil is the culprit. The Fed must end it: Metals being eaten now: Miners too: Brace for new lows on EM stocks: As junk free falls towards a credit event: Treasuries were hammered and
TSLombard with the note. Indicators of market funding stress jumped in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. But they soon retraced back to more normal levels, underscoring the view that central banks have learned from past crises and are prepared to step in without delay to address dislocations in market liquidity. Metrics
Just sayin’. The Dutch TTF is now pricing gas, including Australian, at AUD32.77Gj and falling (I’ve converted to Gj and AUD): This is because Europe is accumulating its winter storage well ahead of schedule: Meanwhile, in Australia, where the gas is produced for $1Gj, only a fixed price of $40Gj imposed by the regulator is
The ferrous market was stable on June 8, 2022: According to CISA, the last ten days of May were the highest Chinese output ever: I’m baffled. Where is all the steel going? Property is, if you’ll pardon my French, fucked: By itself that is 160mt of less steel than last year. Yet here we are
The Chinese unrecovery is progressing well. COVID is still popping up regularly: Mobility is slowly lifting: Property and trade remain shut: Property especially is showing no change: Sunac China, the country’s third largest property developer by sales, is seeking to extend repayment of an onshore bond due June 13 by two years, first reported by
Albo’s cowards aren’t doing shit about the energy war-profiteering: Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen just spoke to the media after a meeting with his state counterparts. They have agreed to three points of action that he says won’t deliver immediate relief to the current soaring energy prices, but will help Australia in the long-term goal
Typically, banks and energy companies enjoy a similar factor rotation in stock markets, marked as cyclicals. Both benefit as the economic cycle enters the expansion phase, which is where we should be about now. However, the last week has witnessed a startling divergence in this relationship. Banks have suddenly gone from cyclical heroes to late-cycle
You’d think that they’d learn. As I helped pull together the second version of the Garnaut Climate Change Report in 2011, the Gillard Government was watching its polls slump relentlessly. Many didn’t understand why. Sure, the deposing of Kevin Rudd had upset many. But there was something else going on that was really pissing off
DXY was up overnight: AUD was down but not as much JPY: Which means CNY is next: Oil is now a global wrecking ball: Oil, DXY up and CNY down means the rest writes itself. Commodities, miners, EM down: Junk is still howling “trouble ahead”: As oil pushes yields higher: And stocks lower: Westpac has
Pantheon right again. — The latest Chinese FX reserves data for May suggest an improving backdrop for the currency, rising to $3,128B, from $3,120B in April. This brings to an end the longest streak of declines in reserves since 2016. But the data flatter to deceive. The gain in reserves came during a period of
This is garbage from the new Resources Minister, Mad King: The energy market is littered with phony solutions. Interviewed by this paper, King says it’s time post-election for Australian culture to move beyond ideological battles over energy sources. Asked if the climate wars are over, the new Resources Minister says: “I hope so. If they’re
Our Bill at Westpac. Usually, Bill is very sober but he’s gone over the RBA cliff. I don’t whether they can’t see it, or don’t want to, but the Aussie economy is now going to nosedive into recession before 2023. Take that to the bank. — The RBA Board decided to raise the cash rate
Gareth Aird is pretty much the only bank economist we know making sense. The only reason I can see why the RBA won’t be cutting rates by year-end is the war-profiteering energy shock. — RBA June 2022 Board meeting – 50bp increase in the cash rate target; we revise our call The RBA Board has
The Aussie bond curve is starting to price in the RBA policy error. Short-end yields are soaring while long-end have stalled out: The curve has been flattened by a steamroller and the belly is almost inverted: Spread to the US are still trending wider offering some support to the AUD: If Albo’s cowards add energy
And the Australian Pet Shop is open for business: bark, squawk, screech, howl, defecate: A broad coalition of peak bodies today called on the Wednesday crisis meeting of Australia’s energy ministers to work together both on immediate responses to calm chaos and on longer term measures to moderate energy prices and cut emissions by improving
Don’t say I didn’t warn you. The RBA statement: Inflation in Australia has increased significantly. While inflation is lower than in most other advanced economies, it is higher than earlier expected. Global factors, including COVID-related disruptions to supply chains and the war in Ukraine, account for much of this increase in inflation. But domestic factors
DXY was stable last night: But AUD flew. JPY is a falling anvil: Meaning CNY is next: Oil is a big problem for everybody: A very big problem: Metals were milder: Miners boomed: EM stocks didn’t: Junk is quite unconvinced: The Treasury curve was smashed: Which growth stocks liked: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap
Yawn: Beijing has warned Australia to respect its national security interests and avoid potential “serious consequences” after Canberra accused a Chinese fighter jet of intercepting an RAAF aircraft over the South China Sea. China’s Foreign Ministry on Monday night did not confirm or deny the incident but a spokesman said the Chinese military carried out
