David Llewellyn-Smith


TFF kills RBA cash rate

Via Banking Day: A significant shift in the framework of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy is underway that could culminate into the Term Funding Facility becoming the effective instrument for implementing monetary policy and making the cash rate target almost redundant for the next few years. The interest rate corridor system of implementing


Victoria’s next crisis is economic and budget collapse

Via Stephen Mayne at Crikey: If Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg really want to pressure Dan Andrews to lift Victoria’s lockdown early, they’ve got a very big card they could play: financial support. The Victorian budget and balance sheet is in more strife than any other Australian government because the pandemic has forced it to


Davey Day Trader hit by margin calls

That distant howl that you can hear is the collective screams of a million millennial daytraders going up in smoke: Davey Day Trader at the Closing Bell – September 10, 2020 https://t.co/ixBgt0Lu40 — Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) September 10, 2020 Each new generation thinks it is smarter than the last and that they are the first


The end point is you, Mr Raby

Former China ambassador, Geoff Raby, into the whaaambulance again: We now await the Australian government’s next act of retaliation. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Marise Payne has needlessly warned that all Australians in China are at risk. It is not hard to imagine how Beijing will react. The trouble with the simple-minded “let’s get tough on China


Gottiboff: Bow to China or it will crash your house price

Gottiboff has joined some dribble stains on his bib today: Australia must brace itself for the next round of the war of words and actions with China – an attack on the price of iron ore and the nation’s key revenue base. My China contacts tell me that the anger China is currently displaying over


Fake Green melts down into CCP-Nazi kowtowing

Amazing cognitive dissonance: No mention of Uyghurs, Tibet, Hong Kong, COVID-19, or the manifold attempts to occupy, manipulate and bully Australia and Chinese Australians. How on earth do we reconcile that with this: Earlier in her career Jenny worked for a number of years with Amnesty International as a crisis coordinator and campaign manager in


Poof! Mortgage arrears disappear into APRA Invisopower!

The Dinkum Index from Fitch: Fake, of course. Arrears are all piled into forbearance loans. Via Banking Day: APRA has made further regulatory adjustments to the capital treatment of loans to customers affected by COVID-19. These include provisions covering loans subject to more than one restructure and the extension of concessional capital treatment to loans


ASX bath of blood drags down banks

The Australian dollar is soft this morning: The bond curve wants to steepen but can’t: Stocks are up a little but vulnerable: Big Iron is leading: Big Gas is still stinky: Big Gold has a bid at last: Big Banks do not and the trend is not its friend: If the correction is over then


Depressionberg’s infrastructure black hole opens

Ever since tennis pro, Josh Depressionberg, was picked by a process of dart-throwing as the new Australian treasurer, MB has warned that his great economic plan was spectacularly ill-conceived. That plan was to run down public investment to forced interest rates lower and trigger a new round of house price inflation plus consumption supported with


Labor fingerprints all over ASIO China expulsions

Via the ABC: China’s Foreign Ministry has slammed a foreign interference investigation that has embroiled a group of Chinese academics and journalists in Australia, accusing the Federal Government of “blatant irrational behaviour”. A host of Chinese media outlets yesterday alleged that Australian national security agencies had “raided” the homes of four Chinese state media reporters


Gammaquake over?

Via ZeroHedge: Heading into Tuesday’s plunge, there was a veritable cornucopia of excuses (which traders had generously ignored) to resume last week’s deleveraging as investors were already anchored to more tangible market headwinds: Lack of progress on CARES 2.0 (consensus still sees $1.5-$2T getting passed although even Goldman is becoming more skeptical) Gamma reset in


The Australian dollar is the China decoupling cure-all

Via the AFR: Agricultural export giants are pleading for the government to resolve its tensions with China and privately fear they could lose lucrative deals. Fletcher International Exports founder Roger Fletcher, the biggest sheep meat exporter to China, is enraged at how out-of-hand the tensions between China and Australia have become. …”I just wish everyone


Labor greybeard: We must kow tow to “appalling” China

Craig Emerson massively over-egging impacts of deteriorating relations with China by telling us that iron ore is at risk. Sure, by 2030. Of course, there’ll be an adjustment as other exports fall way but we’ll be fine as the AUD craters and boosts exports to other nations. Commodities are fungible. The only thing “stupid” here


Domain straight back to dodgy journalism

Didn’t miss a beat: Australia’s house prices hold up against the rest of the world Australia’s property market is still ranked in the top 20 in the world, despite any damage inflicted on it by the coronavirus pandemic. Out of 56 countries and territories in the global index’s second quarter analysis produced by independent property


Support for governments catches the virus

Via The Fake Left: Public faith in government handling of the coronavirus is on the decline, with voters in Victoria most likely to complain their state and federal governments are not working well together on the pandemic. That is the conclusion of the latest Essential poll, released on Tuesday, which found Scott Morrison is the preferred prime


ASX bath of blood sprays all

The AUD is marking time around new lows this morning: Bonds are in vogue again: The ASX is close to making things interesting for a deeper correction: Big Iron is soft: Big Gas buggered: Big Gold still correcting: Big Banks are trending inexorably down: As Big Not Debt goes bust: Still think there’s more blood-letting


House price hope turns consumer sentiment bipolar

Via Westpac: We suspected last month’s 9.5% collapse in the Index was an over-reaction but this month’s 18% rebound is a pleasant surprise nonetheless. It comes despite official confirmation in the survey week that Australia had experienced its first recession since 1992. Clearly this was ‘old news’ with respondents more focussed on the future. The


Is a “mammoth spending boost” coming in the Budget?

There should be. But Domain seems confused about “should” versus “will” means: A mammoth spending boost is being planned for the October budget to launch new construction projects that can create jobs, with the federal government promising more money and focus on long-term infrastructure. Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack named water supply as a key


Trump boat parade sinks

Via FTAlphaville: Alphaville does not have an opinion on the political effectiveness of boat parades. Putting a Trump flag in a rod holder and motoring around on the weekend isn’t any sillier than putting a sticker on a car bumper and driving to work during the week. And the Trump flags are, legally, bumper stickers.


Australian Government warns against all China travel

Unless you are a pellet of iron ore then listen up. Via the AFR: Foreign Minister Marise Payne said Australians should not travel to China as they face the risk of arbitrary detention, after two Australian journalists were rushed out of Shanghai on Monday night in a secretive operation following a tense five-day stand-off with