Houses and Holes


ANZ job ad falls turning nasty

Down they go: ANZ Job Ads slid a further 1.7% m/m in November and are now down almost 15% from their cyclical peak in May 2018. Although there has been a longer lag than usual, the downturn in the number of advertisements may be starting to filter through to the labour market. In October, we


ScoMo had better pray for rain

IPSOS via Domain: The environment has for the first time surpassed healthcare, cost of living and the economy to be the number one concern for Australians. The Ipsos Issues Monitor, which asks a representative sample of Australians to select the three top issues facing the nation, found 32.1 per cent rated the state of the


Cowards of Canberra launch minimal China pushback

This morning we find an Aussie being tortured in China, via The Guardian: The detained Australian writer Dr Yang Hengjun is being subjected to daily interrogations with his arms and legs shackled, as Chinese security officials try to “break” him, his lawyers say, pushing for him to confess to unspecified allegations of espionage that potentially


The longs and short of the stock market “boom”

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: 1.       We have a modest ASX 200 target of 7000. At an aggregate level, income, rather than capital growth will likely be the driver of returns. 2.       We see earnings recovery, but multiple compression. IBES Consensus numbers point to roughly 6% earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next


Austrac coming for NAB

According to Banking Day: Ross McEwan, NAB’s new CEO, is in a hurry. NAB has admitted to a litany of breakdowns in systems and governance relating to money laundering and terrorism financing. Reported by The Australian newspaper on Saturday, the leak looks like an effort to preview what may well be an imminent statement of


ScoMo’s ‘quiet Australians’ con exposed

The Coalition has nicely illustrated why it is a very weak government. Via Domain: A Liberal Party review into Scott Morrison’s stunning election victory has warned the Coalition’s future chances of forming government will remain “worryingly narrow” unless it improves its standing in Victoria and parts of NSW. The review warns there is “no room


Deloitte also lost in the Budget past

Deloitte also lost in the Budget past today: The economy and the budget usually move together. If the economy weakens, that typically eats into the tax take and lifts the welfare bill.  But that usual linkage broke down of late, with the economy weakening at the same time the budget improved.  That has led to


Shadow RBA turns more dovish

Having missed every signal under the Sun for as far back as I can remember: Rates Should Stay on Hold Into the New Year The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% in October, while real wage growth fell further, to 0.5%. Australia’s inflation rate, at 1.7% in the September quarter, remains below the Reserve Bank


China PMIs lift

From China’s NBS over the weekend comes the PMIs: In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.9% , an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month ; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.5% , an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month ; the PMI of small enterprises was 49.4% , an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month . From the perspective of the classification index, of the five classification indexes that constitute


Alarms clang as Chinese financial stress spreads

Some more nice work from Zero Hedge today on Chinese financial stresses: Something is seriously starting to break in China’s financial system. Three days after we described the self-destructive doom loop that is tearing apart China’s smaller banks,  where a second bank run took place in just two weeks – an unprecedented event for a country where until earlier


New home sales recovery stalls

Via HIA: “New Home Sales and Housing Finance data indicate that the housing market has stabilised over the past 6 months,” stated HIA Economist, Angela Lillicrap. The HIA New Home Sales report – a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states – is a leading indicator of future trends


Bunnings joins the wage thieves

Because it just so hard to pay people right, at Domain: More than 40,000 current and former Bunnings employees are set to receive their unpaid superannuation entitlements after the hardware giant on Friday revealed the quantum of its underpayment case. In late September, the retailer admitted it had failed to pay a number of its


America First killing global liquidity?

Via GaveKal: Regular readers will know that among the key influences on global markets is what I call “international liquidity,” which I have long monitored using an item on the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet labeled “securities held in custody for foreign official and international accounts.” This barbaric wording refers to the US dollar foreign


Europe declares carbon war on Australia

Slowly but surely, Europe is declring carbon war on Australia. Ealrier this year we saw the begiing of divestitures: Norway’s massive sovereign wealth fund may soon rip up to $3.7 billion out of Australian fossil fuel companies after the Norwegian Parliament passed a tightened set of ethical investment rules. The laws were adopted late on


Realty turns pure financial arbitrage

Via FtAlphaville: There’s a popular joke in finance that venture capital is just one giant ploy to subsidise millennial lifestyles. While there’s an element of truth to this with ride-sharing, food delivery or ready-made meal kits, the service provided has always been in-kind — an underpriced meal, or a cheaper-than-cost taxi ride. That is, until


Hanson accidently does right thing on union bill

Via The Australian: The government has pledged to ­revive its union-busting bill after Pauline Hanson handed the ­Coalition an embarrassing Senate defeat that business branded a “win for union thuggery”. Attorney-General Christian Porter called on Senator Hanson to explain why One Nation ­sided with Labor and the Greens to ­oppose the Ensuring Integrity Bill, leaving


Foreign influence laws and Peter Dutton a complete joke

This is what Scummo sees as doing something about CCP influence operations in Australia, via Domain: Australia’s flagship foreign interference scheme has issued only one notice to a potential agent of influence, despite sending out more than 1500 letters, as former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull urged the Morrison government to enforce the controversial laws. Fifty


Global steel output tumble deepens

Via World Steel: World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 151.5 million tonnes (Mt) in October 2019, a 2.8% decrease compared to October 2018. China’s crude steel production for October 2019 was 81.5 Mt, a decrease of 0.6% compared to October 2018. India produced 9.1 Mt