By Michael Every of Rabobank Today is like one of those rare occasions when the Broadway understudy for a leading role finds out that the star has the ‘flu (not Covid-19) and so they get to go in front of the audience for once. Yes, Europe, today is your time to shine: “Everything’s coming up
Via Banking Day: A significant shift in the framework of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy is underway that could culminate into the Term Funding Facility becoming the effective instrument for implementing monetary policy and making the cash rate target almost redundant for the next few years. The interest rate corridor system of implementing
Via Stephen Mayne at Crikey: If Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg really want to pressure Dan Andrews to lift Victoria’s lockdown early, they’ve got a very big card they could play: financial support. The Victorian budget and balance sheet is in more strife than any other Australian government because the pandemic has forced it to
That distant howl that you can hear is the collective screams of a million millennial daytraders going up in smoke: Davey Day Trader at the Closing Bell – September 10, 2020 https://t.co/ixBgt0Lu40 — Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) September 10, 2020 Each new generation thinks it is smarter than the last and that they are the first
Former China ambassador, Geoff Raby, into the whaaambulance again: We now await the Australian government’s next act of retaliation. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Marise Payne has needlessly warned that all Australians in China are at risk. It is not hard to imagine how Beijing will react. The trouble with the simple-minded “let’s get tough on China
Gottiboff has joined some dribble stains on his bib today: Australia must brace itself for the next round of the war of words and actions with China – an attack on the price of iron ore and the nation’s key revenue base. My China contacts tell me that the anger China is currently displaying over
Amazing cognitive dissonance: No mention of Uyghurs, Tibet, Hong Kong, COVID-19, or the manifold attempts to occupy, manipulate and bully Australia and Chinese Australians. How on earth do we reconcile that with this: Earlier in her career Jenny worked for a number of years with Amnesty International as a crisis coordinator and campaign manager in
Makes for good viewing but it is the tip of the iceberg.
The Dinkum Index from Fitch: Fake, of course. Arrears are all piled into forbearance loans. Via Banking Day: APRA has made further regulatory adjustments to the capital treatment of loans to customers affected by COVID-19. These include provisions covering loans subject to more than one restructure and the extension of concessional capital treatment to loans
The Australian dollar is soft this morning: The bond curve wants to steepen but can’t: Stocks are up a little but vulnerable: Big Iron is leading: Big Gas is still stinky: Big Gold has a bid at last: Big Banks do not and the trend is not its friend: If the correction is over then
Ever since tennis pro, Josh Depressionberg, was picked by a process of dart-throwing as the new Australian treasurer, MB has warned that his great economic plan was spectacularly ill-conceived. That plan was to run down public investment to forced interest rates lower and trigger a new round of house price inflation plus consumption supported with
Via the AFR: Melbourne’s CBD faces a $110 billion wipe-out over the next five years from its strict lockdown with 79,000 jobs set to be lost across the city in the worst economic, social and mental health disaster for the city since World War 1, PwC modelling from the mayor’s office reveal An estimated 22,900
Via the ABC: China’s Foreign Ministry has slammed a foreign interference investigation that has embroiled a group of Chinese academics and journalists in Australia, accusing the Federal Government of “blatant irrational behaviour”. A host of Chinese media outlets yesterday alleged that Australian national security agencies had “raided” the homes of four Chinese state media reporters
Iron ore prices for September 9, 2020: Chinese empty apartment sales have softened: Brazil is beating the virus: Down into Q3 seasonals ahead. Up into new year. Peak H1, 2021.
Via ZeroHedge: Heading into Tuesday’s plunge, there was a veritable cornucopia of excuses (which traders had generously ignored) to resume last week’s deleveraging as investors were already anchored to more tangible market headwinds: Lack of progress on CARES 2.0 (consensus still sees $1.5-$2T getting passed although even Goldman is becoming more skeptical) Gamma reset in
If anything penetrates the thick skulls at the Lunatic RBA it might be the constant humiliation it receives at the hands of the RBNZ, a vastly superior central bank on every measure. The RBNZ handles both monetary and prudential policy with 20% the staff of RBA and APRA. This enabled it to lead on macroprudential
Via the AFR: Agricultural export giants are pleading for the government to resolve its tensions with China and privately fear they could lose lucrative deals. Fletcher International Exports founder Roger Fletcher, the biggest sheep meat exporter to China, is enraged at how out-of-hand the tensions between China and Australia have become. …”I just wish everyone
Craig Emerson massively over-egging impacts of deteriorating relations with China by telling us that iron ore is at risk. Sure, by 2030. Of course, there’ll be an adjustment as other exports fall way but we’ll be fine as the AUD craters and boosts exports to other nations. Commodities are fungible. The only thing “stupid” here
Didn’t miss a beat: Australia’s house prices hold up against the rest of the world Australia’s property market is still ranked in the top 20 in the world, despite any damage inflicted on it by the coronavirus pandemic. Out of 56 countries and territories in the global index’s second quarter analysis produced by independent property
At around one-third of total exports, iron ore is not quite Chile’s copper or Norways’s oil at roughly half their exports, but it’s mighty big: It gets close to half if you add coking coal, which is the same trade. Given everything else to China is going to shrink hence, the steel bulk commodity’s share
Via The Fake Left: Public faith in government handling of the coronavirus is on the decline, with voters in Victoria most likely to complain their state and federal governments are not working well together on the pandemic. That is the conclusion of the latest Essential poll, released on Tuesday, which found Scott Morrison is the preferred prime
The AUD is marking time around new lows this morning: Bonds are in vogue again: The ASX is close to making things interesting for a deeper correction: Big Iron is soft: Big Gas buggered: Big Gold still correcting: Big Banks are trending inexorably down: As Big Not Debt goes bust: Still think there’s more blood-letting
Via Westpac: We suspected last month’s 9.5% collapse in the Index was an over-reaction but this month’s 18% rebound is a pleasant surprise nonetheless. It comes despite official confirmation in the survey week that Australia had experienced its first recession since 1992. Clearly this was ‘old news’ with respondents more focussed on the future. The
Via UBS: Will the restart of blast furnaces ex-China impact iron ore demand in 2H h/h? No. Over the last month a number of steel producers have restarted BFs which were hot-idled due to COVID-19. We estimate in total ~22 BFs are being restarted around the world or ~30% of the total idled. In our
There should be. But Domain seems confused about “should” versus “will” means: A mammoth spending boost is being planned for the October budget to launch new construction projects that can create jobs, with the federal government promising more money and focus on long-term infrastructure. Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack named water supply as a key
Via FTAlphaville: Alphaville does not have an opinion on the political effectiveness of boat parades. Putting a Trump flag in a rod holder and motoring around on the weekend isn’t any sillier than putting a sticker on a car bumper and driving to work during the week. And the Trump flags are, legally, bumper stickers.
Iron ore prices for September 8, 2020: Empty apartment sales are still OK: Plenty more useless building coming too: I still expect a significant near-term price correction on seasonals. A bid into New Year and mid-2021 peak into long falls.
Unless you are a pellet of iron ore then listen up. Via the AFR: Foreign Minister Marise Payne said Australians should not travel to China as they face the risk of arbitrary detention, after two Australian journalists were rushed out of Shanghai on Monday night in a secretive operation following a tense five-day stand-off with
Via Stat: A large, Phase 3 study testing a Covid-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford at dozens of sites across the U.S. has been put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant in the United Kingdom. A spokesperson for AstraZeneca, a front-runner in the race for a
DXY is off the lows and EUR falling: The Australian dollar was smashed: Gold was buffeted buy held: The oil canary croaked: Metals were hit: And miners: EM stocks are now gapping lower: US junk has rolled but EM will be the final confirmation of a serious correction to fakeflation: US yields fell: Stocks were
