Down they go: ANZ Job Ads slid a further 1.7% m/m in November and are now down almost 15% from their cyclical peak in May 2018. Although there has been a longer lag than usual, the downturn in the number of advertisements may be starting to filter through to the labour market. In October, we
IPSOS via Domain: The environment has for the first time surpassed healthcare, cost of living and the economy to be the number one concern for Australians. The Ipsos Issues Monitor, which asks a representative sample of Australians to select the three top issues facing the nation, found 32.1 per cent rated the state of the
Via the ABS come more poor GDP partials: September key figures Jun Qtr 19 to Sep Qtr 19 Sep Qtr 18 to Sep Qtr 19 % % Sales of goods and services (Chain volume measures) Manufacturing Trend -0.5 -3.6 Seasonally Adjusted -0.3 -3.3 Wholesale trade Trend -0.5 -0.3 Seasonally Adjusted -0.5 -0.6 Inventories (Chain volume
October monthly inflation out from Melbourne Institute and it’s another donut for an annual figure of 1.5%: The last seven months have printed a grand total of 0.5% inflation. Yeh, it’s a shit economy.
This morning we find an Aussie being tortured in China, via The Guardian: The detained Australian writer Dr Yang Hengjun is being subjected to daily interrogations with his arms and legs shackled, as Chinese security officials try to “break” him, his lawyers say, pushing for him to confess to unspecified allegations of espionage that potentially
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: 1. We have a modest ASX 200 target of 7000. At an aggregate level, income, rather than capital growth will likely be the driver of returns. 2. We see earnings recovery, but multiple compression. IBES Consensus numbers point to roughly 6% earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next
According to Banking Day: Ross McEwan, NAB’s new CEO, is in a hurry. NAB has admitted to a litany of breakdowns in systems and governance relating to money laundering and terrorism financing. Reported by The Australian newspaper on Saturday, the leak looks like an effort to preview what may well be an imminent statement of
Via AXIOS: A week ago, U.S. sources close to the China talks indicated they were on the precipice of a “Phase One” deal. But that optimism now seems premature, if not misplaced. Congress sent legislation to Trump’s desk that angered Beijing, interrupted the trade talks, and telegraphed support for democracy and human rights in Hong
The Coalition has nicely illustrated why it is a very weak government. Via Domain: A Liberal Party review into Scott Morrison’s stunning election victory has warned the Coalition’s future chances of forming government will remain “worryingly narrow” unless it improves its standing in Victoria and parts of NSW. The review warns there is “no room
Deloitte also lost in the Budget past today: The economy and the budget usually move together. If the economy weakens, that typically eats into the tax take and lifts the welfare bill. But that usual linkage broke down of late, with the economy weakening at the same time the budget improved. That has led to
Having missed every signal under the Sun for as far back as I can remember: Rates Should Stay on Hold Into the New Year The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% in October, while real wage growth fell further, to 0.5%. Australia’s inflation rate, at 1.7% in the September quarter, remains below the Reserve Bank
From China’s NBS over the weekend comes the PMIs: In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.9% , an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month ; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.5% , an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month ; the PMI of small enterprises was 49.4% , an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month . From the perspective of the classification index, of the five classification indexes that constitute
Iron ore charts for November 29, 2019: Spot fell. Paper fell more. CISA output remains strong. Not much to report and no chnge to outlook.
DXY eased Friday night as EUR firmed: The Aastralian dollar hit new lows versus DMs: It was mixed against EMs: Gold jumped: As oil tanked: Metals have completely hosed a global recovery: Miners fell: EM stocks were hammered by oil. A lot of thjese ETFs are little else: Junk too: Bonds were mixed: As Aussie
Because Recessionberg. Via the AIG: Nice red board. Full report. CBA version weak too.
The jig is up for Aussie household debt. There is gthering evience that the change is structural and that has huge implications for everything from the economy through politics and society. Total private sector debt growth has been lower than it is today before: And it will rebound a little from current levels, all things
Some more nice work from Zero Hedge today on Chinese financial stresses: Something is seriously starting to break in China’s financial system. Three days after we described the self-destructive doom loop that is tearing apart China’s smaller banks, where a second bank run took place in just two weeks – an unprecedented event for a country where until earlier
Via Bill Evans of Westpac on the RBA and the Australian dollar: The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on December 3. As we have argued consistently, despite confident market pricing at various stages over the last few months, we see little chance that the Board will decide to change the cash rate in December.
Via HIA: “New Home Sales and Housing Finance data indicate that the housing market has stabilised over the past 6 months,” stated HIA Economist, Angela Lillicrap. The HIA New Home Sales report – a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states – is a leading indicator of future trends
Because it just so hard to pay people right, at Domain: More than 40,000 current and former Bunnings employees are set to receive their unpaid superannuation entitlements after the hardware giant on Friday revealed the quantum of its underpayment case. In late September, the retailer admitted it had failed to pay a number of its
Via GaveKal: Regular readers will know that among the key influences on global markets is what I call “international liquidity,” which I have long monitored using an item on the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet labeled “securities held in custody for foreign official and international accounts.” This barbaric wording refers to the US dollar foreign
Only in a rarified Banana Republic does one have to wish for the death of an export sector to benefit the nation. That’s Australia and its east coast gas cartel which was forced to drop spot gas prices to $6.70Gj yesterday, the lowest price in two years. The key for more sustained price falls, and
Slowly but surely, Europe is declring carbon war on Australia. Ealrier this year we saw the begiing of divestitures: Norway’s massive sovereign wealth fund may soon rip up to $3.7 billion out of Australian fossil fuel companies after the Norwegian Parliament passed a tightened set of ethical investment rules. The laws were adopted late on
APRA is out with October bank data and if the major banks are lending to specufestors then they are returning the dough even faster: ANZ CBA MQG NAB WBC BOQ BEN SUN Oct-19 86401 155833 18164 111974 182267 11960 13735 12336 Sep-19 86652 155691 17269 112687 184042 11985 13683 12354 Aug-19 87140 155562 17300 113519
Via FtAlphaville: There’s a popular joke in finance that venture capital is just one giant ploy to subsidise millennial lifestyles. While there’s an element of truth to this with ride-sharing, food delivery or ready-made meal kits, the service provided has always been in-kind — an underpriced meal, or a cheaper-than-cost taxi ride. That is, until
It’s gone a bit unnoticed amid trade non-deal scuttlebutt. One the primary drivers of value of the Australian dollar has been falling again and is close to new lows. Aussie bonds yields has a taken a caning in recent weeks as local data deteorates: The local curve has steepened a little but remains inverted out
Via The Australian: The government has pledged to revive its union-busting bill after Pauline Hanson handed the Coalition an embarrassing Senate defeat that business branded a “win for union thuggery”. Attorney-General Christian Porter called on Senator Hanson to explain why One Nation sided with Labor and the Greens to oppose the Ensuring Integrity Bill, leaving
The yawn goes on: China PMIs tomorrow. Perhaps that will add some life.
This is what Scummo sees as doing something about CCP influence operations in Australia, via Domain: Australia’s flagship foreign interference scheme has issued only one notice to a potential agent of influence, despite sending out more than 1500 letters, as former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull urged the Morrison government to enforce the controversial laws. Fifty
Via World Steel: World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 151.5 million tonnes (Mt) in October 2019, a 2.8% decrease compared to October 2018. China’s crude steel production for October 2019 was 81.5 Mt, a decrease of 0.6% compared to October 2018. India produced 9.1 Mt
