David Llewellyn-Smith


Your ABC abandons freedom for crayfish

Several of the recent demands made by China for the end of Australian democracy landed directly upon the media, from which it required silence: Your ABC has been delivering in spades. Chinese agent of influence and Yancoal lobbyist, Geoff Raby, is now rampant at the national broadcaster. There is barely a piece that does not


CS: One more virus bust for the road

Via Credit Suisse: Consistent with our message in recent months, we expect barely positive global industrial production (IP) growth between October and February. This is a sharp deceleration following the extraordinary summertime bounce from the spring’s shutdowns. We forecast global IP momentum (3m/3m annualized growth) to bottom in January or February at a level in


Fu Ying might be the most dangerous woman in China

At the New York Times today Fu Ying, a former ambassador and vice foreign minister of China, and the director of the Center for International Security and Strategy and an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University. She is a vice chairwoman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress. BEIJING — The domestic


What’s killed gold?

This one has really baked my noodle recently: Especially as BTC, “digital gold”,  goes nuts: This became especially weird in the last few days as Janet Yellen was nominated for Treasury Secretary, indicating a rising risk of integration between the Treasury and Fed, a clear gold positive. Yellen says she is not persuaded by MMT


Of course Australia has chosen the US over China

ScoMo continues his sensible path on Chinese aggression, at the AFR he writes: …economic interdependence and openness has created unprecedented wealth and prosperity, and lifted billions out of poverty. Importantly, it facilitated the economic rise of China. No country has pulled more people out of poverty than China, and we in Australia are pleased to


NZ mulls adding house prices to RBNZ mandate

Via Bloomie: New Zealand’s government has proposed adding house prices to the central bank’s remit to rein in an overheating property market, prompting investors to reduce bets on lower interest rates. The local dollar jumped. Finance Minister Grant Robertson said Tuesday he has written to Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, asking him to consider amending


I just bought a case of Tahbilk wine. You should too

I just bought a case of Tahbilk wine. You should too. Why? This: Tahbilk Wines, a historic fifth-generation family-owned winery in central Victoria, presently has four shipping containers of its wine stalled in Chinese ports as customs officials find excuses not to release them, and for now no more Tahbilk will be shipped to China.


US allies mull combined pushback to China bullying

Via Bloomie: The U.K. is considering a ban on the installation of Huawei Technologies Co. 5G equipment as soon as next year to appease lawmakers pushing for tighter restrictions on the Chinese telecom equipment maker, according to people familiar with the matter. Lawmakers from Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party are demanding stricter rules on


China’s debt shakeout intensifies

Via Bloomie: A string of defaults by Chinese state-owned companies has sent shockwaves across the world’s second-largest credit market. But some bonds have fared much worse than others as investors clamber to avoid the next potential blowup. Among the most notable losers: notes issued by Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Jizhong Energy Group Co., Tianjin TEDA Investment Holding


Deutsche: Stocks stretched

Via Deutsche: Range bound US equities despite two large positive catalysts points to extended positioning Back in July, we noted that the market then was rallying on good news (data surprises) but failing to selloff on bad news (virus resurgence) and that this asymmetric response confirmed our read that equity positioning was quite low (Equity


ASX pukes gold, gobbles banks!

The Aussie dollar is still plodding: Bonds too: But XJO is flying: With Big Iron: Big Gas: Big Gold puked: Big Banks are unstoppable: Big Tech not so much: More classic value rotation. There is no yield curve steepening to drive it but it’s happening anyway on the expectation of it driven by vaccines. My


Another reason the OECD should bone Mathias Cormann

I’ve noted plenty already: Mathias is the Morrison Government’s most radical supply-side nutter. He is not corrupt which might make this position forgivable. He actually believes in trickle-down economics, which leaves the room short of oxygen given Cormann is obviously intelligent. Mathias has a record of deep climate skepticism having voted in favour of climate


As China launched economic war, Albo schmoozed Chau Chak Wing

This is how out of touch is Labor and Anthony Albanese. As the CCP launched its economic war on Australia last week with demands to end our democracy: Anthony Albanese was not only busy being silent, he was busy doing this: Returned to ⁦@Sydney_Uni⁩ for opening of superb Chau Chak Wing museum tonight – arts,


ANZ consumer confidence falls

ANZ-Roy Morgan Aus Consumer Confidence broke an 11-week winning streak to fall 2%, as SA went into a short lockdown. With the lifting of restrictions in Vic and NSW, the impact may be short-lived. #ausecon #ausretail @roymorganonline @DavidPlank12 pic.twitter.com/vlfPuHetvu — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) November 23, 2020


Is the Aussie housing market about to “rip” like NZ?

Citi says so at the AFR: “The RBA’s almost singular focus on the currency will lead to the inevitability of what always happens when rates fall—asset prices go up,” Citi’s Brendan Sproules and Thomas Strong said. “Particularly housing. “Certainly, the AFR’s Banking Summit gave credence to this view, with a broad acknowledgement that housing would


ScoMo’s dodgy vaccine turns out dodgy

Recall the process of selection for ScoMo’s dodgy vaccine: Goodness. The Director of Government Affairs at Scott Morrison’s suddenly favourite new drug company AstraZeneca is former federal govt lobbyist Kieran Schneemann. He’s also a former Chief of Staff in the Liberal party. Not that there’s anything wrong with that at all. ▫️ pic.twitter.com/wRIIj4IDIj — RonniSalt


China coal lobbyist, Geoff Raby, returns with CCP talking points

Via China coal lobbyist and registered agent of foreign influence, Geoff Raby, at the AFR: Also the past week, we have also seen states in East Asia engaging and hedging with China…So the region continues to reshape itself to declining US engagement and China’s rising power. …Just as the Prime Minster was leaving Japan, the


Gas lobby dreams turn nightmare!

The oil and gas lobby is having itself on big time at the AFR: Nationally consistent policy, improved regulation and better tax rules could help unlock billions of dollars in investment in Australia’s oil and gas sector and create thousands of jobs, according to a new report. Industry lobby the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration


Depressionberg forced to prop up failing Unstimulus

The Depressionberg Unstimulus has already triggered an employment catastrophe in the largest segment of the economy, small and medium enterprise: Things have been going better for the big end of town because it is enjoying major advantages over smaller competitors in its dominant online position, access to capital markets and more capital intensive growth models.


NSW has destroyed Morrison’s “gas-led recovery”

At the AFR comes the Morrison’s Government worst minister (and that’s saying something): Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor has demanded the NSW government hand over the modelling behind its energy infrastructure road map amid worries in Canberra it will push up power prices and among electricity suppliers that the policy will derail planned new gas


Measuring the US fiscal cliff

Via BofA: Fiscal cliff economics • Many pandemic-aid programs in the CARES Act are set to expire at the end of the year without action from Congress. • The expiration of federal UI programs—PUA and PEUC—alone could be a drag of 1.5pp in 1Q. Cutoff of other provisions will be additional headwinds. • We expect