Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: An un-natural vision of stability. The US trade deficit, a proxy for foreigners’ US dollar (USD) saving, is exhibiting remarkable stability of late. Ordinarily, stability tells us that there is nothing further to see – but sometimes, it can actually be a deceptive sign of instability. Consider that the national accounting identity says that
Hoocoodanode that killing your base would…well…kill your base? Via the FT: The coronavirus pandemic is eroding Donald Trump’s popularity among a group that was crucial to his 2016 victory — older white Americans — a worrying sign for the president’s re-election hopes. According to a New York Times-Siena College poll released last week, two-fifths of
Australia’s #labour market recovery appears to have stalled. Payroll #jobs increased by just 0.1% over the fortnight ending 13 June after averaging 0.9% growth over the previous three fortnights. #ausecon @cfbirch pic.twitter.com/Bbcbk9zv8T — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) June 30, 2020 V-shaped recovery. Not. Here’s the problem, via the AFR: Virgin Australia could slash up to half of
Deputy Governor of the Lunatic RBA, Guy Debelle, today: The Reserve Bank’s Policy Actions and Balance Sheet Australia is experiencing an historic event. It is first and foremost a health event. Thankfully, thus far the health outcomes in Australia have been better than feared. The health decisions taken by the government and the public in
He may not know what he’s up against but he’s persistent: Former Dow Chemical chief Andrew Liveris says the coronavirus crisis has created a generational opportunity to reset Australia’s industrial policy, get away from “developing reports” on the subject and recreate the country’s manufacturing base. …“What we have done is develop the sectors we should
What a classic Hugh Hendry is: Searing insights from the wild man of finance reminds me of Samuel Taylor Coleridge: A damsel with a dulcimer In a vision once I saw: It was an Abyssinian maid And on her dulcimer she played, Singing of Mount Abora. Could I revive within me Her symphony and song,
Very sensible. From Bloomie: New Zealand’s road to economic recovery is unlikely to include the return of foreign students this year, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. While the nation’s successful elimination of community transmission of Covid-19 should make it an attractive destination for international students, it will take some time to establish the quarantine facilities
Harris Coffee has done a little survey at YouGov in some hope of getting barista bailout: 70% of Aussies are worried Australia’s cafés will never be the same again Almost five million Australians claim to have missed their local café more than pubs and clubs during COVID-19 Just under ten million Australians said they felt
They’re positive but given they’re directional not positional they indicate a still-weak recovery. Manufacturing is barely expanding: From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 52.1% and 50.2% , up 0.5 and 1.4 percentage points from the previous month ; the PMI of small enterprises was 48.9% , down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month . From the perspective of the classification index, among the five classification indexes that constitute the
Via Shano today: CBA household credit & debit card spend suggests the gentle upswing in spending has paused and is now tracking broadly sideways when we smooth out the week to week volatility. Total spend is up 4.5% for the week ending 26 June compared to a year earlier. #ausbiz #ausecon #commsec pic.twitter.com/VNVv9aomGB — CommSec
Via Bank of America: Fiscal: look out below In the face of the shock from the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal stimulus has poured into the economy. Washington has pushed in roughly $2.8tr of stimulus, equaling 13% of GDP while the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to $7.1tr. The rapid and forceful support on the policy front likely
Victoria’s COVID-19 spike has dented consumer confidence. Sentiment around ‘current economic conditions’ fell sharply, suggesting household concern about a return to tighter #lockdowns and the impact of a #secondwave on the economy. #ausecon #ausretail @cfbirch @roymorganonline pic.twitter.com/Z335yQ6MFO — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) June 29, 2020
Unless you want to lose money. For investors, there is simply no reason to buy and plenty of reasons to sell. Even for first home buyers, there’s no reason to buy and plenty of reasons to rent. First, there is huge unemployment that is going to be very sticky with unprecedented wage pressures, via Credit
As it were, it is going off. The first dimension of the Australia/China sharp power war is cyber, at the AFR: An extra 500 cyber spies will be recruited as part of a $1.35 billion boost to protect the nation’s sensitive computer networks and data from an unrelenting wave of cyber attacks which China is
DXY was up last night: The Australian dollar was universally soft: Gold held at the highs: Oil too: Dirt is clearly into an uptrend now: Miners were stable: And EMs stocks: Junk is still sending a warning: Bonds were mostly bid: Stocks rebounded on the usual late ramp: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US
Lol, via CCP mouthpiece The Global Times comes Straya, the interfering superpower and evil kangroo: Australia is waging an intensifying espionage offensive against China – sending agents to China to spy, gather intelligence and recruit assets, instigating defection among Chinese nationals, spying on Chinese students and organizations in Australia, feeding fake news to media to
Here is the problem: pic.twitter.com/hvyjRBiyCC — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 27, 2020 Trump should be careful. It won’t be a good look losing to an empty head. Polls: Betting markets: Brainless Biden is still an unbackable favourite. And why not? Senility is no match for homicidal ineptitude: Brainless is as brainless does.
Via ZeroHedge: After three months of relentless contrarian bearishness by institutional investors, even as retail investors first, and hedge funds subsequently (latest HF net leverage is 99%-ile) flooded into stocks, large institutions such as vanilla mutual funds and pensions finally capitulated to the Fed which is now openly pushing stock prices higher. In the CFTC’s latest
…financial markets such as the one described in this article, or last week’s two bank runs. This has been happening with increasing frequency in China during the past 2-3 years. We saw similar in the US in the late 1920s, Latin America in the late 1970s, Japan in the late… — Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) June
Recall that: I can announce this morning that Queensland Police have launched an ongoing criminal investigation into Brisbane Chinese Consul-General Xu Jie’s efforts to incite and direct political violence against Australian citizens. A vindication for the rule of law. — Drew Pavlou 柏乐志 (@DrewPavlou) June 24, 2020 Chinese Consul-General Xu Jie directed violent attacks against
Some good stuff from Ross Gittins today: …there are at least five reasons why this recovery will face stronger headwinds than most. The first is the absence of further help from the Reserve Bank cutting rates. Second, Australia, much more than other advanced economies, has been reliant for much of its economic growth on population
Up she goes and where it stops nobody knows: Victoria is experiencing a “concerning” upward trend in coronavirus, with 75 new cases identified overnight. The total number of cases in Victoria since the pandemic began now stands at 2,099. “Obviously we are concerned by the increasing number and the upward trend and are monitoring the
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: US consumption disappoints pre-“second-wave”. US consumption rose by a smaller-than-expected 8.1% in May, albeit with upward revisions to prior months’ data. More timely retail sales, chain store turnover and card spending data have been pointing to a stronger recovery, which has not manifested yet in the official data. The rise in consumption
Pretty simple maths that eludes the lockdown fear mongers: This seems obvious to me but nevertheless here are two charts via Nomura which suggest that **easing social distancing measures doesn’t automatically equate to an economic boost if it comes with more COVID cases** pic.twitter.com/cF47xxmJad — Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) June 29, 2020 In short, the virus
The AFR has today used a journalist to declare that a journalist has no authority to discuss MMT (I mean, how would he know?): Out there, on the wild fringes of economics, modern monetary theory is picking up momentum. MMT, as it is known, is a panacea for troubled times. Government deficits don’t matter, printing
The Australian dollar is stable this morning: As bond yields at the long end toy with break down: XJO is down a goodly 2% and the uptrend line is well busted: Big Iron is soft: The bellwether of the bust, oil, is sending a clarion warning: Big Gold is strong and even bloody NCM is
Via News comes generally good news: A major investigation into an alleged espionage plot to infiltrate Australian politics is continuing, with ASIO raiding the home of a political staffer. Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Friday warned foreign powers, including China, that he “won’t cop” attempts to influence politics. “We won’t cop anyone coming and seeking
DXY was up Friday night: The Australian dollar was down versus DMs: But up versus EMs: Gold flew but I’d be more comfortable if it pushed more decisively above its break out line: Oil was soft: Dirt was better: Miners fell: Junk looks vulnerable: EM stocks fell: Bonds were bidly: As stocks sank: The news
Nice poddy here on Stephanie Kelton’s new book The Deficit Myth: Good job.
Via Bloomie: An Australian equities fund manager is wagering that stocks linked to the domestic economy will become the biggest winners as coronavirus measures ease. Firms tied to the country’s economic health should rebound quickly as restrictions unwind and consumption increases, said Jelena Stevanovic, portfolio manager at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. Australia is in a
