Cowardly Albo is out defending the gas cartel again today: “WA got it right all those years ago,” Albanese said of the state’s gas reservation policy that quarantined 15 per cent of its gas reserves for domestic use. “The decision on the east coast is one that was made by former governments to not go
The great bond yield back-up has so far proceeded pretty much in lockstep between the US and Australia. Australia is lagging behind the US cycle by a quarter or so owing to our vaccine and RAT problems which is why our yield curve has not flattened as fast but it has been trending in the
Albo’s energy chaos is palpable: The Australian Energy Market Operator says its shutdown of the National Electricity Market has significantly improved its ability to run the power system, but has refused to signal when normal operations will resume. …Generators sought answers on how the power system will work and how they will be paid, while
DXY fell last night despite heavy risk off: AUD rose those was hit on the crosses: Oil is proving to be an immovable object: Not so metals. Copper is at breakdown point: Miners were hit: EM stocks too: Junk whoa! Treasuries were bid, signaling a shift from inflation worries to growth panic: Especially since stocks
FTAlphaville is enjoying itself immensely. — Not all crypto crashes are alike. Most are foreseen accidents, though some may be engineered in their image. To safeguard the overall blockchain industry and crypto market, TRON DAO Reserve will withdraw 2.5 billion #TRX out of binance. — TRON DAO Reserve (@trondaoreserve) June 15, 2022 That’s Tron, which
What other conclusion can we draw from Westpac’s latest survey? Expecting the consumer to keep spending on a run down in savings as sentiment collapses is ludicrous. 50bps next month and you can put a fork in households. They’re done. — • Sentiment falls 4.5% to 86.4 in June, hit by inflation concerns and 50bp
The ferrous complex was weak on June 15, 2022: The mystery is this. Chinese steel output is still insane, down just 3% year on year (though it is 6%+ YTD): But the main drivers of steel consumption are terrible. Housing starts are back in the dark ages: In rolling annual terms, which might give us
Goldman has the main points. The reality is very likely to be worse than this data suggests. — Industrial production (IP) rose by 0.7% yoy in May (vs. a 2.9% yoy contraction in April), beating market expectations. On a sequential basis after seasonal adjustments, it rebounded to +3.4% mom non-annualized in May from -8.4% in
For nearly a decade now I have had the misfortune of having to tell and retell the sick tale of the eastern energy markets. I have done so on this blog, and very occasionally received a nibble from the MSM. I have done so at dinner parties and watched the slow drop of collective jaws
DXY eased overnight as the Fed delivered its 75bps knockout hike: AUD did the usual buy the fact: Encouragingly, oil did not: But everything else did: EMs, miners, commodities, junk: Treasuries were bid: With stocks: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap The Federal Reserve hiked the funds rate band by 75bp to 1.50%-1.75%, as was widely expected
FTAlphaville again. This is the leading edge of a scene of carnage for crypto the likes of which we have not seen since the Millennium “dot bomb”. Virtually no crypto investor will be old enough to remember the bursting of that bubble which culminated in the success of the website fuckedcompany.com. All it did was
Gong! Everyone is long commodities. Meaning that they will be the last thing to break as the Fed flushes the system of excess but break they will. BofA Global Fundie Survey tells the tale. — Bottomline: TheUS stock market officially enters a bear market*as the June BofAFund Manager Survey (FMS) signals deeper investor misery; BofA
The new Chinese unboom is here. TSLombard: Omicron remains the single most-important China macro variable. We think healthcare and political constraints mean the zero Covid policy is here to stay for at least the next six to nine months. Beijing is pushing on the stimulus accelerator, but the Covid brake on activity will remain and
It’s never a good sign when central bankers appear on prime-time TV. Here’s Captain Phil on 7.30 last night confessing that he is about to crash house prices. If he gets the cash rate to 2.5%, which is possible with Albo’s cowards driving energy inflation wild, then the crash will be much worse than -15%!
Australia’s east coast energy markets have failed. In point of fact, the gas market failed seven years ago. The electricity market has now failed as well: Power generators have been accused of adding to the uncertainty and chaos of the electricity supply crisis by taking capacity out of the market to access increased compensation payments,
The DXY bull market charges on. Where will it peak? 125 looks like a good place to start: Australian dollar was murdered to the post-COVID lows. The break on EUR and JPY is pretty bearish: CNY is threatening new lows: Oil eased. Gold will forecast the end of the DXY bull market. Not yet! Metals
Via FTAlphaville. This is going to get much worse. Indeed, the odds of a crapto Lehmann are growing by the minute. Here’s looking at you, Tether. — History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as this: [email protected] is pausing all withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts. Acting in the interest of our community is our
As Aussie yields jackknife, we can ask: is Australia in a sovereign debt crisis? The answer is in two parts. The first is discouraging. It comes in the form of an Aussie yield curve that is far too steep relative to growth prospects: The question is why? I put that down to three factors: the
Michael Hartnett at BofA leads us off: Wham! on June 8th2020 NYC announced stage 1 “reopening” after 13-week COVID lockdown, permitting curbside pickup from retail outlets; if you had said then that two years later US retail sales would be up 67%, unemployment would fall by 17 million, inflation would surge from 0.1% to 8.3%,
The ferrous complex was hammered on June 13, 2022: MySteel indexes are still terrible: Cars and coal are weak: ‘ Cement is piling up: It’s fugly and is starting to impact coking coal which has fallen a lot more than iron ore in the past few days: We are warming up for an almighty puke
The Chinese unrecovery is going swimmingly. Credit unrecovered late last week. Pantheon: Credit is flowing, but where is it going? Chinese M2 growth rose to 11.1% y/y in May, from 10.5% in April. Consensus was 10.3%. Chinese M1 growth slowed to 4.6% y/y in May, from 5.1% in April. Consensus was 4.9%. Chinese M0 growth
Energy Minister Chris Bowen has no idea what he is doing. Literally, no idea: “But we would need to take that through parliament, there’s no legislative basis at the moment,” Mr Bowen told ABC RN Breakfast. “One thing this government will not do is … respond with an ad hoc reaction…we’ve had enough knee jerk
JPM: Two developments since the May CPI report reinforce the case for a more hawkish FOMC meeting on Wednesday, in our view. First, the startling rise in the longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey could imply a higher level of the nominal neutral interest rate. Second, according to the WSJ
Over the long weekend, the National Electricity Market followed the eastern gas market into failure: The Australian Energy Market Operator has taken the unusual decision to impose a $300/MWh price cap on the Queensland electricity market, after cumulative prices over the past week averaged more than $674/MWh and exceeded a trigger point for the intervention.
DXY is into clear air in its bull market: AUD was slaughtered: Sadly for all, oil did not fall after Libya stopped exports: Miners were axed: As metals diverge from energy given the looming recession: EM stocks were slaughtered: Global junk is in a new GFC: US yields jackknifed as markets imagine all kinds of
