Houses and Holes

12

Energy chaos turns giant scab grab

Albo’s energy chaos is palpable: The Australian Energy Market Operator says its shutdown of the National Electricity Market has significantly improved its ability to run the power system, but has refused to signal when normal operations will resume. …Generators sought answers on how the power system will work and how they will be paid, while

28

Australian dollar safe harbour returns

DXY fell last night despite heavy risk off: AUD rose those was hit on the crosses: Oil is proving to be an immovable object: Not so metals. Copper is at breakdown point: Miners were hit: EM stocks too: Junk whoa! Treasuries were bid, signaling a shift from inflation worries to growth panic: Especially since stocks

6

fuckedcrypto #345

FTAlphaville is enjoying itself immensely. — Not all crypto crashes are alike. Most are foreseen accidents, though some may be engineered in their image. To safeguard the overall blockchain industry and crypto market, TRON DAO Reserve will withdraw 2.5 billion #TRX out of binance. — TRON DAO Reserve (@trondaoreserve) June 15, 2022 That’s Tron, which

27

Just like that, RBA breaks Aussie consumer

What other conclusion can we draw from Westpac’s latest survey? Expecting the consumer to keep spending on a run down in savings as sentiment collapses is ludicrous. 50bps next month and you can put a fork in households. They’re done. — • Sentiment falls 4.5% to 86.4 in June, hit by inflation concerns and 50bp

0

Chinese unrecovery arrives

Goldman has the main points. The reality is very likely to be worse than this data suggests.  — Industrial production (IP) rose by 0.7% yoy in May (vs. a 2.9% yoy contraction in April), beating market expectations. On a sequential basis after seasonal adjustments, it rebounded to +3.4% mom non-annualized in May from -8.4% in

17

Australian dollar sell the rumour, buy the fact

DXY eased overnight as the Fed delivered its 75bps knockout hike: AUD did the usual buy the fact: Encouragingly, oil did not: But everything else did: EMs, miners, commodities, junk: Treasuries were bid: With stocks: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap The Federal Reserve hiked the funds rate band by 75bp to 1.50%-1.75%, as was widely expected

6

Everyone is long commodities. Gong!

Gong! Everyone is long commodities. Meaning that they will be the last thing to break as the Fed flushes the system of excess but break they will. BofA Global Fundie Survey tells the tale. — Bottomline: TheUS stock market officially enters a bear market*as the June BofAFund Manager Survey (FMS) signals deeper investor misery; BofA

2

China unrecovery to end in another shock

The new Chinese unboom is here. TSLombard: Omicron remains the single most-important China macro variable. We think healthcare and political constraints mean the zero Covid policy is here to stay for at least the next six to nine months. Beijing is pushing on the stimulus accelerator, but the Covid brake on activity will remain and

13

Adieu crapto

Via FTAlphaville. This is going to get much worse. Indeed, the odds of a crapto Lehmann are growing by the minute. Here’s looking at you, Tether. — History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as this: [email protected] is pausing all withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts. Acting in the interest of our community is our

6

Stocks collapse towards recession and worse

Michael Hartnett at BofA leads us off: Wham! on June 8th2020 NYC announced stage 1 “reopening” after 13-week COVID lockdown, permitting curbside pickup from retail outlets; if you had said then that two years later US retail sales would be up 67%, unemployment would fall by 17 million, inflation would surge from 0.1% to 8.3%,

1

Chinese credit unrecovers

The Chinese unrecovery is going swimmingly. Credit unrecovered late last week. Pantheon: Credit is flowing, but where is it going? Chinese M2 growth rose to 11.1% y/y in May, from 10.5% in April.  Consensus was 10.3%. Chinese M1 growth slowed to 4.6% y/y in May, from 5.1% in April.  Consensus was 4.9%. Chinese M0 growth

11

Fed to go 75bps? 100bps?

JPM: Two developments since the May CPI report reinforce the case for a more hawkish FOMC meeting on Wednesday, in our view. First, the startling rise in the longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey could imply a higher level of the nominal neutral interest rate. Second, according to the WSJ

45

Gas and power markets collapse. Albanese Government next

Over the long weekend, the National Electricity Market followed the eastern gas market into failure: The Australian Energy Market Operator has taken the unusual decision to impose a $300/MWh price cap on the Queensland electricity market, after cumulative prices over the past week averaged more than $674/MWh and exceeded a trigger point for the intervention.