Goldman with the note: We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 500k in August, below consensus of +725k. While the seasonal hurdle is relatively low in August, the monthly pace and cross-section of Big Data employment indicators are consistent with a sizeable drag from the Delta variant. On the positive side, we expect the reopening of schools
Former PM Keating today: The Morrison government is wantonly leading Australia into a strategic dead end by its needless provocations against China. …Save for its front porch, the South China Sea, it broadly keeps to itself. Is the Morrison Government a ham-fisted China basher? Yes. Does it have a plan for the divorce? No. Is
Queenslander! Deputy Premier Steven Miles: “Yesterday Scott Morrison had six members of his team out attacking Queensland, our border restrictions and our Premier.” “We haven‘t seen a pile-on like that since before the state election last year.” “Not one of them mentioned the outbreak in Sydney — it’s as though Queenslanders are somehow responsible for
Morgan Stanley with the note: We are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections
The CBA has opted for the glass-half-full approach to steel and iron ore: “For iron ore prices to find meaningful support again, we would need to see policy on China’s steel output cuts relaxed,” he says. “That’s not as unlikely as it seems, especially if steel prices lift notably. We think that’s completely plausible given
It’s on like Donkey Kong for Chinese developers. Evergrande is going out of business and other weak players are being sucked in: A worsening selloff in China Evergrande Group’s dollar bonds is once again spreading to other developers, raising the stakes for Chinese authorities as they mull whether to support billionaire Hui Ka Yan’s embattled
The ferrous complex was weak again on September 2, 2021 as spot fell more and paper held on: There is now an iron ore glut. It is everywhere you look. FMG grade discounts are blowing out: As iron ore prices have fallen from record highs, Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG) has seen the return of significant
Down she goes: Welcome to the Morrison Recession.
In my experience, most pollies have a personality disorder. There are degrees of toxic that do not matter or we can put up with. This is not the case with Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He is a genuine psychopath, unable to empathise with his fellow Australians, premiers or anybody else he needs to negotiate with.
Via the AIG: Full report.
The forex market continued its recent counter-trend rally overnight as questions were raised over Biden stimulus plans. My charts are down today but AUD is sitting at 0.74 cents as DXY falls: Sen. Joe Manchin urged Democrats Thursday to pause their effort to pass a $3.5 trillion social spending plan but suggested he’d be open
Nothing good. BofA on the American experience: The Conference Board report yesterday revealed a sizable drop in consumer confidence to a six-month low of 113.8in August, down from 125.1 in July. The consensus was forecasting only a small decrease. The data echoed a similar slide in the University of Michigan sentiment index, which fell to
Goldman with the note: Outbreaks in economies that vaccinated early such as Israel and new studies have raised doubts about the durability of vaccine protection and prompted booster rollouts. How much has the efficacy of major Western vaccines waned over time and how much will boosters help? We first show that lower recent estimates of
Queenslander! Anastasia Palaszcuk was magnificent yesterday: We must do everything possible to keep Queenslanders safe from Delta, especially our children. #covid19 pic.twitter.com/1kAJuibkWr — Annastacia Palaszczuk (@AnnastaciaMP) September 1, 2021 Exactly. To wit: Almost a third of teens experience coronavirus symptoms three months after diagnosis, according to a U.K. study that suggests long Covid also afflicts
The ferrous complex was smashed on September 1, 2021 as spot cratered, paper held and steel tumbled: News was all about more output cuts: Production restrictions in various regions have continued to advance, and there are signs of increasing efforts. Due to the strengthening of dual control of energy consumption, the Guangxi region has imposed
It’s fun to watch. China’s Evergrande, the most indebted developer in the known universe, is hurtling into the abyss. Its deleveraging efforts have all been for nought: On the face of it, China Evergrande Group made progress cutting its debt load in the first half of the year. On closer examination, paying its dues got
Forex markets are settling into a comfort zone that excludes the Fed taper. DXY has confirmed a false breakout and EUR is up: The Australian dollar has given back all taper losses: However, the reason why taper is off, slowing growth, also weighed on commodities: And miners: EM stocks did better: But not junk: The
If there are two words in the English language that I enjoy writing they are “limit” and “down”. That’s iron ore today: And the Caixin PMI: China hard landing here we come.
And yes, that’s how stupid the measure is. We’re all richer because nobody wanted the AZ vaccine. Westpac with the note: The Australian economy expanded by 0.7% in the June quarter, exceeding expectations. Annual growth lifted to 9.6% and activity is 1.6% above pre covid levels at the end of 2019. The key surprise –
BofA with the note: Recent Covid developments have been somewhat encouraging. Weekly case growth in the US has dropped to around 5%. Cases appear to be at or close to the peak in some states–most notably Florida–that were hit the earliest and the hardest by the Delta wave. Yet we think the situation is likely
Goldman with the note: With the Supreme Court striking down the federal eviction moratorium and with most state-level restrictions set to expire over the next month, we explore how sharply evictions could rise under current policy, and we estimate the potential impact on the economy. Despite a severe recession, evictions actually declined during the coronacrisis
You have to remember that institutions are like oil tankers. They have a lot of inertia in them. I would argue that that is what we are seeing today from the RBA as it drops a little taper tantrum onto Australian markets. Yesterday the bank released a new study that modelled an imminent surge in
COVID apartheid is here and it’s no fun for anybody in the leprosy zone. Victoria is now a fully-fledged member: The state government has abandoned its COVID-zero strategy and is set to announce a modest easing of restrictions despite two COVID-19 deaths being reported on Tuesday – the first in Victoria this year. Conceding the
The ferrous complex was smashed on August 31, 2021 as Chinese data tanked. Just as importantly the market took it at face value rather than seeing it as good news auguring more stimulus. Spot was hit and paper collapsed limit down: There’s not much more to add. I remain of the view that we are
Or should that be no respite in the bust in Chinese building? Evergrande is going out of business: China Evergrande Group warned that it risks defaulting on borrowings if its all-out effort to raise cash falls short, rattling bond investors in the world’s most indebted developer. “The group has risks of defaults on borrowings and
Via the AIG: Services will be much worse. Full report.
Forex markets are range trading again. Except for the Australian dollar which took flight on RBA hot air. DXY was firm and EUR soft: The Australian dollar made news highs across the board: Commodities were all over the place: But big miners sagged with iron ore: EM stocks jumped: And junk is serene: Despite curve
Will our psychopathic PM go to an early election in an attempt to ride out his pandemic blunders on a wave of optimism as lockdowns give way to living with COVID? Quite apart from the obvious risks in that never happening, Morrison might consider the fate of Justin Trudeau whose polls have collapsed after he
ANZ-Roy Morgan Aus Consumer Confidence rose 0.2% last week. Even as NSW daily cases hit the 000s, Sydney gained 0.9%, buoyed by good vaccination rates. Sentiment fell in Brisbane (-1.6%), Melbourne (-1.9%), Adelaide (-8.6%) and Perth (-0.8%). #ausecon @arindam_chky @DavidPlank12 pic.twitter.com/EBMs0Sfv78 — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) August 30, 2021
It’s a close-run thing as Westpac tallies the partials: Q2 real net exports: Real net exports subtracted 1.0ppt from activity in the quarter, a larger than anticipated impact, market median -0.8ppts and Westpac -0.7ppts. Exports contracted, down by -3.2%, with resource shipments hampered by disruptions (maintenance and weather). Imports advanced, up by 1.5%, extending the strong
