Via CoreLogic, listings have rebounded but remain very weak: Mortgages are rebounding strongly: Though this index does not take account of investor mortgages which remain very weak: Conditions for price rises are obviously in place. But unless or until investors return I can’t see it all going boom. There’s just not enough income. We need
Via CoreLogic: Rental conditions continued to diverge through November. Capital city house rents were 0.7% higher in November while unit rents were down -0.6%. The monthly data follows a now well established trend where house rents have shown a more positive trajectory than unit rents since the onset of COVID. Across the combined capitals, unit
Iron ore prices for November 30, 2020: Spot up. Paper down. The steel PMI has firmed though remains remarkably weak given steel ouput: No change from me. Strong pricing through Q1, 2021 then down.
Lol. This is the greatest. Via Global Times: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison lost his diplomatic manners on Monday by attacking Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian who condemned Australian soldiers’ atrocity against Afghan civilians on his personal Twitter account. Morrison claimed that his country felt offended so he shamelessly demanded an apology from China.
For nearly a decade, MB has been the only media voice warning of the unsustainable path of Australia’s Chinese engagement. Before 2011, selling dirt to China made sense as it committed to global economic integration and liberalisation. After the rise of Xi Jinping, and the collapse of the great mining boom, the nature of Australia’s
Via AIG: Recall that PMIs are directional nor positional so this rebound is very weak and now weakening. Full report.
DXY was a little firmer last night: The Australian dollar breakout collapsed: Gold firmed as oil fell: Base metals were mixed as copper enters blowoff: Miners were hit: EM stocks too: Junk is fine: Treasuries bid: Stocks eased: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US pending home sales rose 1.0% in October, beating expectations of
A nice piece by GaveKal: 2) The renminbi and 10-year US treasury yields The chart above shows the same periods of renminbi strength and weakness, but this time overlaid by the 10-year US treasury yield. The match-ups are not perfect, of course—multiple factors influence US treasury yields. Even so, the chart suggests a number of
The nice way of saying it is that Hugh White has painted himself into a corner by declaring China the winner before the game was afoot. At the AFR again: We should not be surprised that Australia is finding it hard to get our relations with China right, because we have never encountered a country like
Via Westpac’s Housing Pulse. County beating city: Sydney gluttted: Melbourne glutted: Brisbane tight: Perth tightneing: Adelaide tightening: And of the world tight: I see no reason here to change my view that the SE will underperform the national rebound. At least until the sluice gates open on mass immigration and even then it will
Via AFR: The JobKeeper wage subsidy is being paid to 700,000 fewer people than forecast in the October 6 budget, which the federal government says shows the economy is recovering faster than anticipated. The latest Australian Tax Office data released by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg shows the number of JobKeeper recipients fell from 3.6 million employees
Via the ABC: A Federal Government program offering cash grants for housing construction projects has been extended, but at a lower amount. The HomeBuilder scheme currently provides $25,000 grants to eligible people building a new home or renovating an existing one. It had been due to expire at the end of the year but will
Via Murdoch: Exclusive: It was set up to attract the best and brightest from around the world, but Australia’s Global Talent visa program has become a farce, attracting hairdressers instead of rocket scientists. Immigration experts say the program, which is the fastest way to get Australian permanent residency, is laden with loopholes and being exploited.
Via China’s NBS comes the manufacturing PMI In November , China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 52.1% , an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month , and was above the threshold for nine consecutive months, indicating that the recovery growth of the manufacturing industry has accelerated. In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 53.0% ,
No sign of any bounce in specufestor mortgages in October APRA data. Year on year is still down marginally for the big eight: Month on month was slightly positive but the trend is sideways. ANZ is making up for lost time. Others are becalmed. NAB is crunched: Mad Macquarie remains…mad: There is no rebound at
Via the ABS comes Sep QTR Business Indicators: Inventories are falling much slower than Q2: That’s going to add roughly 0.8 to Q3 GDP. Other measures are clearly stimulus boosted.
Via RBA credit aggregates: The table below presents a summary of the latest financial aggregates statistics. Financial Aggregates Percentage change Monthly Year-ended September 2020 October 2020 October 2019 October 2020 Total credit 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.8 – Housing 0.4 0.3 2.9 3.3 – Personal −1.0 −0.7 −4.7 −12.7 – Business −0.4 −0.3 2.7 1.4 Broad
Via The Australian: Scott Morrison has flagged government support for producers hit by China’s trade sanctions as Australia moves to lodge a formal protest with the World Trade Organisation. …“As a government we will be looking at how we can get a number of our producers through this difficult time,” Mr Morrison told ABC radio.
The Australian dollar is off and running again this morning: Aussie yields are pancaked: XJO is flat: Big Iron is reaching for the stars again: Big Gas is shrugging off OPEC shenanigans: Big Gold continues to flush the weak hands: Big Banks are mixed without the curve steepening: Big Tech is firm for the same
Alexander Downer was never the sharpest cross-dresser in the shed, at the AFR he declares: China’s aggression will, in the end, prove to be entirely counterproductive. There are two reasons why. First, other countries have indeed been warned that China will treat them with the same aggression should they in some way transgress and incur
Via The Australian: Major gas users including billionaire Anthony Pratt’s Visy Industries, Qenos, Incitec Pivot and Orica took part in a high-level meeting on Thursday with Resources Minister Keith Pitt and Energy Minister Angus Taylor to put forward their case for the radical policy change. Sources said a draft heads of agreement was set to
The RBNZ has already done so: New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday said it would re-impose mortgage curbs next year and work with the government on fixing a housing crisis, reinforcing views that deeper cuts to interest rates into negative territory are now less likely. The government on Tuesday sent a letter to the Reserve
Via The Shadow: The coronavirus is now well contained in Australia, Victoria has lifted many of if its restrictions, and most state borders have opened. Unless there is another outbreak that prompts strong action, Australia should be able to reap the economic benefits of this normalisation. The inflation rate (0.7% year-on-year based on the latest
Thanks to Westpac’s always excellent Andrew Hanlan: Overview The Australian National Accounts, to be released on Wednesday December 2, will provide an estimate of economic activity for the September quarter. This year has been the most extraordinary period. The nation endured an unprecedented temporary and partial shut-down in an effort to contain the spread of
Good news. Cases in the US third wave appear to be peaking: Both cases and hospitalisations are seeing a flattening curve. Deaths will climb for a few more weeks. All regions bar the north east have improved: Cases are falling where lockdowns are strongest, as you’d expect. There must be an asterisk over this data
Iron ore prices for November 27, 2020: Spot hit a six-year high. Paper is lagging. Steel has not updated. Empties have stabilised again: I wouldn’t expect us to get much higher but it’s quite possible. Especially if we see some Q1 supply disruptions with La Nina. No change from me. Strong pricing through Q1 then
A Federal Parliament that roughly divides down the lines of the Coalition being terrible on everything except China versus Labor being better on everything except being captured by China shakes our as a narrow Newspoll lead for the Government: Popular support for Scott Morrison has risen to its highest level in four months following
Kelly’s cowards returned on the weekend to demand Scott Morrison prostrate himself before Xi Jinping. Paul Kelly led them off: This week Morrison sent a series of messages but his most important theme — tricky but critical — is for Australia’s status as an independent player to be better recognised, as a nation allied to
Via Gareth Aird at CBA: Overview The resilience of the Australian housing market has been quite remarkable over the COVID – 19 period. A huge fiscal injection of cash into the household sector, coupled with cuts to interest rates, loan deferrals and some other key policies have all supported home prices through the pandemic. It
Via the AFR: Questions over clinical trial data for AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine have not derailed plans to begin immunising Australians from March, Health Minister Greg Hunt says. Mr Hunt downplayed concerns over the vaccine may be less effective than initially reported, as AstraZeneca announced it would conduct a further trial. “Our vaccine timeframe is unchanged,”
