Houses and Holes


Mortgage arrears still climbing

Via S&P: Australian prime home-loan arrears remained steady in June, with the Standard & Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages slipping 1 basis point to 1.51% from a month earlier. That’s according to S&P Global Ratings’ “RMBS Arrears Statistics: Australia,” published today. Arrears typically decline in June and throughout the third quarter. Mortgage


Australian jobs power on

Via the ABS just now: TREND ESTIMATES Employment increased 24,600 to 12,915,200 persons. Full-time employment increased 15,100 to 8,849,500 persons and part-time employment increased 9,600 to 4,065,700 persons. Unemployment increased 6,600 to 715,600 persons. Unemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to 5.3%. Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 66.1%. Monthly hours worked in


Bitcoin not so golden after all?

Here’s the chart: The BTC news flow has been a bit rough with Barclays pulling the pin: The most prestigious banking relationship in crypto has ended. Barclays, the London-based global bank, is no longer working with cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, industry sources told CoinDesk. And while Coinbase found a replacement in U.K. upstart ClearBank, according to


Blackmores China bubble bursts

From BKL: I know nothing about this stock but I know a bad chart when I see one. Critical support just gave way: Funny, emerging Asian middle class demand still seems a good growth story and it’s not expensive at 19x. Still, today it appears ex-growth and is being punished for it.


Global fundies go all-in on deflation

Via BofAML: The BofAML August Global Fund Manager Survey The nut: August BofAML FMS most bullish on rates since 2008 as trade war concerns send recession risk to 8-year high; investors slash exposure to cyclicals to buy US Treasuries & US growth stocks; with global policy stimuli at a 2.5-year low, onus is on Fed/ECB/PBoC


Lunatic RBA begins to freak out

From the Lunatic RBA just now: Risks to the Outlook Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor Today I am going to talk about some of the key risks around the outlook for the Australian economy. I will draw on the material published last week in the August Statement on Monetary Policy. On the global side, I will discuss


Chinese Communist Party brings Hong Kong war Downunder

Via the New York Times: As the police deploy tear gas against protesters on the streets of Hong Kong, another battle is raging less visibly: the one for narrative control. After weeks of asserting that the unrest had been orchestrated by foreign “black hands,” Chinese officials on Monday accused protesters of showing the first signs of “terrorism.” Such messaging is


Daily iron ore price update (dead cat)

Texture from the AFR: Australia supplied a record 74 per cent of China’s imported iron ore in June, according to trade figures, almost double the monthly average from 10 years ago. As the world’s largest manufacturer and second biggest economy, China is also reliant on Australian coal and uranium to keep the lights on and


Sack Pyne

This is simply corruption, at the New Daily: Christopher Pyne opened negotiations over a lucrative defence consultancy while he was still serving as defence minister in Scott Morrison’s cabinet. The revelations are outlined in a submission to a parliamentary inquirylodged by his new employer EY Consulting on Tuesday. Mr Pyne has previously been cleared of any


Chinese growth spirals into trade war vortex

China’s July data dump is out and there is no hiding the pain now. Industrial production hit the lowest level in living memory at 4.8%, retail sales retraced sharply to 7.6% and fixed asset investment slowed to 5.8%: Under the bonnet, real estate sales continue to fall: With developer land purchases signalling much worse ahead


NSW rushes towards suicidal LNG imports

What madness is this? Via The Australian: NSW has given critical status to a second LNG import terminal as it seeks to avoid potential gas shortages hitting the state on peak demand days from 2023. A proposed $590 million gas plant on Newcastle’s Kooragang Island, which could supply up to 80 per cent of NSW’s


Consumer sentiment levels out

Via Westpac: Superficially this result comes as somewhat of a surprise given that the survey was conducted against a turbulent backdrop with global financial markets roiled by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, the ASX down 3.4% and the AUD off 3c US since the July survey. However, the result does come in


ScoMo MP linked to Communist Party of China

She’ll be right. Via the ABC: Ties linking new Federal Liberal MP Gladys Liu to a secretive international influence arm of the Chinese Government have been uncovered by the ABC. Ms Liu, who made history after becoming the first Chinese-Australian woman to gain a seat in the Lower House, was appointed honorary chairman of a Hong Kong-based


Daily iron ore price update (the smashening)

Texture from Argus: Negative margins have forced Chinese steelmakers to cut output by more than 1mn t in August, sending domestic prices higher today. More than 30 mills in Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Gansu, Sichuan and Fujian have announced maintenance shutdowns that will cut production by at least 1.15mn t of output in August, equivalent to


Another night of violence for Hong Kong

Via SCMP: Defiant anti-government protesters brought unprecedented violence to Hong Kong International Airport on Tuesday night, clashing with riot police after severely disrupting flights, even as officials secured an injunction order against those occupying the terminal building. A source confirmed that the Airport Authority, represented by senior counsel Benjamin Yu, was granted the injunction by


“Bullshit jobs” easy come, easy go

As Australia builds its powerful new “bullshit jobs” economy, it’s useful to contemplate some of the downsides, via FTAlphaville: Any student of emerging markets will tell you that financing a current account deficit with imported capital always seems like a good idea. That is, until investors panic and want their money back. But what if


Angry Aussie instant Communist hero

He’s not fan of freedom if it delays his travels: “You are angry because your flight is cancelled.” One stranded Australian tourist got into an argument with protesters at Hong Kong airport, saying they supported independence and that police should crack down harder. It didn’t go well for him. — 𝕛𝕒𝕞𝕖𝕤 𝕘𝕣𝕚𝕗𝕗𝕚𝕥𝕙𝕤 🇭🇰🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿


Lunatic RBA sees green shoots everywhere

Via the Lunatic: The Usual Transmission – Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions Christopher Kent[*]Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Address to Finance & Treasury AssociationSydney – 13 August 2019 Introduction I’d like to start by thanking the Finance and Treasury Association for the opportunity to speak to you today about the transmission of monetary policy. In my current position


China to acquire ADF health data?

It might just be that we are the dumbest people on earth, via Domain: A Chinese company’s plans to take over healthcare giant Healius is raising concerns in Canberra because the deal could compromise Australian Defence Force medical records, including those of elite special forces. …The ADF’s prized Garrison Health Services contract was last year