Iron ore prices for August 25, 2020: CISA steel output remains huge: As empty apartment sales rise: More: In other news, there was a mysterious crash in Australian exports in July, at the AFR: Iron ore exports to China fell 12 per cent or $1.11 billion to $8.12 billion, while coal exports to the country
DXY was down again last night EUR rallied: The Australian dollar followed the script of firming: Though EMs were stronger: Gold is still shaking out weak hands: Oil caught a bid: Metals too: But not miners as iron ore deflates: EM stocks were up: Junk too: Despite US yields copping it: US stocks only go
It’s every man for himself now. Leading us off today is News: Victorians are being urged to try and claim cash compensation from the state government for the “unreasonable” lockdown in a shock move that could cost taxpayers millions of dollars. Liberal Senator Sarah Henderson has revealed she is urging families and businesses to consider
It ain’t pretty. From the excellent UBS team: Wages similarly fell back by 0.6% in the two weeks to August 8, and worryingly slumped by 4.5% since the peak of the recovery on July 4. Since March 14, wages are now down by a cumulative 6.2%, which is significantly worse than payrolls, implying that average
From Barclays: In the US, the resumption in activity has been brought about by the falling number of COVID cases and increasing mobility which bodes well for the outlook. We maintain our recommendation of shorting 20y Treasuries as the improving backdrop argues for lower safe asset premium. With rising uncertainty about the Fed’s reaction function,
Via the AFR: Commonwealth Bank says its most over-leveraged borrowers – those whose prospects for returning to work after the coronavirus look the bleakest – could be encouraged to downsize the family home or sell multiple investment properties. Angus Sullivan, head of CBA’s retail bank, reassured all struggling borrowers that it won’t move too quickly
There have been state shutdowns of various degree to stop the second wave: But there is also this: The peaks coincide. I can’t find material suggesting this is the result of the supply of tests being limited, despite President Trump declaring he wanted just that at his Tulsa rally. Perhaps Republicans took him at his
Via the ABS: Between the week ending 14 March 2020 (the week Australia recorded its 100th confirmed COVID-19 case) and the week ending 8 August 2020: Payroll jobs decreased by 4.9% Total wages decreased by 6.2% Graph 1: Changes in payroll jobs and total wages indexed to the week ending 14 March 2020 (a) High level
Via The Australian: Australia’s spy agency has warned universities about the risk to national security from Chinese government recruitment programs, including the Thousand Talents Plan, and has alerted them as recently as May to the potential for collaboration to turn into espionage. ASIO gave private briefings to universities urging them to strengthen their disclosure regimes
Check this out from MOZ: Another 300-500 stores gone. Or is it a war with Westfield over rent? SCG today: Malls are filling with tumbleweeds and somebody is going to lose big.
Via Shane Oliver: Share markets have had a spectacular rebound from their March lows. The rebound has been led by the US share market which is up 52% and has just risen above its February record high, making it the fastest ever recovery after a 30% or more fall. Other share markets have lagged but
God help me, I now agree with Peta Credlin, at least on the immigration and Innes Willox questions: She’s wrong on reform and energy though.
Via the FMG true believers: Sitting atop a cash machine disguised as Australia’s third-largest iron ore miner, Fortescue Metals Group chief executive Elizabeth Gaines was justifiably emphatic about the importance of Australia’s increasingly testy trade relationship with China. “We can’t lose sight that we are a trading nation,” she implored, adding that the miner “didn’t
Iron ore prices for August 24, 2020: There are port problems that are clearing: The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) said on Tuesday that iron-ore discharging difficulties and port congestion issues are likely to ease in mid- or late-August as the weather improves and the coronavirus is under control. This is old news but
I recall Owen Harries once writing about the emergence of a stateless elite of business people and what that might mean for the political economy. At the time I thought he was barking up a marginal tree but now I get it. He was talking about “business” psychopaths: More than two dozen peak business organisations
DXY was firm last night: The Australian dollar was roughly flat: Gold looks shaky in terms of its ongoing correction: Brent is stuffed until WTI catches up: Metals were OK: And miners: EM stocks jumped but couldn’t hold: Junk firmed: Despite rising yields: The Nasdaq bubble swelled: The only chart that matters has almost ceased
No wonder this party is so buggered, with navel-gazing like this: Labor has quite simply made a habit of failing at national elections for the past quarter of a century because it can’t get that right. At the last nine federal elections, it has managed to win a lower house majority just once, in 2007.
And stays there. CoreLogic weekly leading indicators: Freefall, splat and lying there unconscious when we should be ramping into Spring. Remember that this is only owner-occupiers. Specufestors are still falling. Listings are very weak and may provide some price support. But wait for the forbearance roll-off: Still not much to recommend the market. Full
Via Morgan Stanley: #1 – The V-shaped recovery: A key part of why MS expects inflation to emerge is because it anticipates a sharper but shorter recession. At its core, this recession was triggered by an exogenous shock in the form of a public health crisis. Coming into 2020, there wasn’t an excessive leverage build-up in
Via UBS: More beats than misses, guidance and earnings revisions less negative 110 ASX 200 stocks have reported, while 63 ASX 100 stocks have reported (out of 86 due to report). Price reactions to results have been largely positive, with EPS beats being rewarded, but EPS misses not being punished (Figure7). More stocks have beat
Nice work from Sharri Markson: Much more here. Get the universities off the Chinese tit.
The annual Jackson Hole central banking swingers party is later this week. Via FT: Several Fed officials have already expressed a willingness to allow inflation to run above the central bank’s 2 per cent target to make up for prolonged periods of undershooting. In Europe, investors will be looking for any clues about the likely next
Via Domain comes the self-evident: Doctors are urging governments not to compel Australians to get a COVID-19 vaccine, warning the fast-tracked approval process could create a risk of harmful side effects. Australian Medical Association President Omar Khorshid said while the peak body was “very supportive of vaccination generally because of its extensive science behind the
Via the rentier headquarters at the AFR comes Kevin Davis, Professor of Ponzi-Finance at The University of Melbourne: “For sale by mortgagee” signs sprouting around the country is not something anyone wants to see happening. But there is a risk of that – and home owners being evicted on to the streets – once the
Lol. Things must be bad for the Game of Mates to come so a-cropper at AMP: More at AFR: David Murray, John Fraser and Boe Pahari have all resigned from their positions at AMP following The Australian Financial Review’s investigation into the wealth manager’s culture that revealed sexual harassment complaints against top executives. I never understood why
Via FMG this morning It’s halftime in the MB versus Twiggy great game. We won the first quarter up to 2015 as FMG nearly went under. Twiggy handed us a toweling in the second quarter as FMG rebounded thanks to a fantastic string of good fortune in Chinese rationalisation, Brazilian accidents and global pandemics. But
Great work from Ian Verrender at the ABC: It’s always a good time for a bit of nation-building. And there’s no better time than when the chips are down. While argument rages as to how best to fight our way out of the worst economic downturn in more than a century, the corporate world last
Amusing stuff, via the ABC: Top brass at Australia’s central bank have hit back at ABC reporting that exposed how the dire view of the housing market held by some Reserve Bank staff clashed with the rosy picture the bank’s representatives presented in public. Staff then sought “receptive” journalists to tell their side of the
Iron ore prices for August 22, 2020: Most measures down. I’ve dropped SGX. It’s become little more than the Dalian dag. Port inventories lifted to new highs but they have 30mt to go. Steel mill must be hurting on margins, though it does not matter given their policy role now. Empty apartment sales still booming
A nice piece from Paul Kelly on the weekend: China’s targeting of Australia’s highly successful $1.1bn wine export market, the latest threat in its campaign of trade retaliation, is a small cog in the larger global revolution where the US and China are decoupling in trade and technology — the lurch into a potentially demoralising
