Via News: There’s real concern among experts that the spread of COVID-19 in the community in Victoria is about to get a lot worse. Epidemiologist, Professor Adrian Esterman, told news.com.au this morning he is “very worried” about the surge in community acquired cases in particular. Of Victoria’s 77 new cases on Thursday, 31 of those
Still contracting at a great pace: It’s funny given construction was never supposed to shut down but clearly some did. Most segments are returning to former downtrends but one is criminally weak: Josh Depressionberg should never have allowed infrastructure to get flushed like this. It was a rookie mistake. Full report.
Via Calculated Risk: On Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June (Friday is a holiday). The consensus is for an increase of 3.1 million non-farm payroll jobs, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 12.3%. Last month, the BLS reported 2,509,000 jobs added in May and the
[REPORT] Demand for cash soars: The value of banknotes on issue rose by $2 billion (2.3 per cent) in June to $90 billion. Issuance of $50 notes is growing at the fastest pace in 11 years https://t.co/KScFO5vfwY #ausbiz #ausecon pic.twitter.com/yftlO7Hgc4 — CommSec (@CommSec) July 1, 2020 The savings rate is going to climb a lot,
Via Bloomie: For an idea of how disparate predictions are for the world’s post-coronavirus rebound, look no further than forecasts for Australia’s dollar. Bulls such as Morgan Stanley see the currency rising to 73 U.S. cents by year-end as the worst of the pandemic eases. At the other end of the spectrum, JPMorgan Chase &
Nasty, via the AFR: One in 10 off-the-plan apartment sales have fallen over during the past three months as lower valuations due to weaker demand and oversupply prompted banks to reject final loan approvals, forcing buyers to give up millions of dollars in deposits. Out of around 35,000 off-the-plan settlements between March and June, 3041
Via Shane Oliver: Introduction Investor focus on the US election waned earlier this year after socialist Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary race in favour of moderate Joe Biden. At the same time coronavirus became the main focus for markets. However, markets may soon start to pay more attention as the election is
There are four major components to the construction boom that has kept Australia moving for the past eight years. The first is public infrastrcuture. It’s ramp up has topped out and it is at slowing declining high plateau as huge projects like the NBN roll off: The second is private infrastructure which is falling precipitously
Via FTAlphaville: It’s confession time for IHS Markit, the firm behind the purchasing managers’ indices. The firm asks thousands of purchasing managers whether activity over the current month has declined, improved, or stayed about the same compared with the previous month. IHS Markit then tallies responses up to produce a net figure where 50 signals no
Iron ore prices for July 1, 2020: Chinese data is still weak: Except for: Brazil is still overrun: It’s still my view that Q3 looks strong for iron ore after the seasonal weak spot:
Via the ABC: Hong Kong police made hundreds of arrests on Wednesday as protesters took to the streets in defiance of sweeping new security legislation introduced by China to snuff out dissent. Police also fired tear gas and water cannons at protesters during the clashes which came one day after the new legislation was enacted.
DXY was down last night: The Australian dollar was firm: As were EMs: Gold was hit but held the break out line: Oil was soft but has a decent looking chart: Copper is off and running on falling inventories: Miners were soft: EM stocks popped: With better junk: Bonds were sold: Stocks rose: Wesptac has
Via UBS, Brazil’s loss is our gain: Initial data from Marine Traffic shows Australia’s Big 4 (BHP, RIO, FMG and Roy Hill) shipped 82.2Mt in June 2020, +12% m/m (annualised) and up 10% y/y. This represents a run rate of ~1,001Mtpa, the highest run rate since Dec-19 (925Mtpa). JQ 20 shipments were ~228Mt, up 5%
Unit Rental Vacancies Surge in Inner Sydney over June – Rents Falling. Nine News Reports Exclusively#housingmarkethttps://t.co/QEFHQzkJFB — Andrew Wilson (@DocAndrewWilson) July 1, 2020 There is no end in sight to the deterioration as: eviction and mortgage forbearance ends; foreign students and immigration remain stalled; AirBnB remains busted; the construction pipeline delivers still more supply; high
From your friendly neighbourhood tyrannical regime: Oh my god am I reading this right??? Article 38: The law applies to persons who do NOT have permanent resident status in HK and commit crimes under this law OUTSIDE Hong Kong. Did Beijing just grant itself sweeping extraterritoriality to…everyone on the planet? — B. Allen-Ebrahimian (@BethanyAllenEbr) June
Via The Australian comes the sound of the door closing on cheap energy: Energy giant Shell said several of its high profile Australian gas projects were to blame for a massive $US8bn to $US9bn ($A11.7bn-$A13.2bn) writedown triggered by lower prices amid a Covid-19 demand shock. The energy major – one of Australia’s biggest gas producers
Via Crikey: Murdoch watchers are about to see in real life how Lachlan handles the dilemma his father regularly faced: how to choose between the political right (in this case, Trump) and the likely political winner (almost certainly not Trump). It’s not just the polls, with averages currently showing Joe Biden up about 10%. It’s
10,000 more Australians will be able to buy their first home from today with a deposit as little as 5% thanks to our First Home Loan Deposit Scheme. We’re proud to have already helped 10,000 Australians into their first home in the first year of the new scheme. https://t.co/QjDMGJyvLJ — Scott Morrison (@ScottMorrisonMP) July 1,
I don’t agree with Kouk on much but even the stopped clock is right twice per day: It is staggering and utterly dispiriting to see around 25 per cent of the workforce either unemployed, underemployment or having given up looking for work. Those lucky to have a job are being subjected to pay freezes or
Via Tony Pasquariello, global head of HF Sales at Goldman Sachs The dominant narrative of the week was a return to trading COVID headlines, as the worst period for US case growth since April served as disruption for those expecting business-as-usual trading conditions this summer. Along the way, stock operators absorbed another heavy dose of
The Australian dollar is still trying to push higher this morning. The chart is still bearish: Bonds are stable: Stocks are struggling despite another drunken night on Wall St: Big Iron is OK: Big Gas is struggling: Most of Big Gold is coiled in an ascending triangle pattern looking for break out: Big Banks are
The Australia/China relationship is sliding at astonishing speed towards outright strategic competition. Hong Kong is dead. Sinocism reads the tea leaves: The Hong Kong National Security law has been promulgated and is now in effect. You can read the official versions here in simplified Chinese, here in traditional Chinese and here in English. Some highlights: Chapter III Offences and
Iron ore prices for June 30, 2020. These prices are for two days: Everything down as Summer rains hit China and suppress demand. I still see the price higher in Q3 once this passes. The Chinese recovery remains weak: But Brazil is still overrun: So, no change from me.
Yeh, I have been locked down again. I’m not happy about it. My suburb has no virus and is on the distant periphery of the breakout zone while other suburbs much closer are not locked down because the useless Manchurian Dan used postcodes instead of suburbs to demarcate the quarantine. But that’s OK. I’ll take
AIG manufacturing PMI: Remember that PMIs are directional not positional so all this is saying is that conditions got better month on month not that they have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Most of the index appears still crashed. Building materials is a big worry for construction. Not much to celebrate here. Full report.
DXY was softish last night: The Australian dollar rose against everything: Gold put some light between it and the break out: Oil was soft: Dirt mixed: Miners firm: EM stocks weak: Junk better Bonds were soft: Stocks took off for year end: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US infectious disease expert and senior official Fauci told a
Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Loan demand could stabilise, but … New loan approvals are falling in trend terms, foreshadowing weaker growth in the stock of credit in the near term as the back-book of loans catches down to deteriorating flows. However interestingly, our proprietary credit conditions index, which takes into account banks’ willingness to make high loan-to-value ratio
Via Moody’s Summary » The 30+ days delinquency rate for prime Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) increased to 1.79% in March 2020 from 1.55% in December 2019 and 1.57% in March 2019. » Delinquencies will continue to increase in 2020 because of the economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Delinquencies will continue increasing over
As Leith noted yesterday, Australia is well into a specufestor mortgage credit rout: If we dig into APRA’s monthly banking stats for May today we can see who’s behind it. Basically the majors are all pulling their heads in, though ANZ flopped into the positive for one month at least: But one big eight bank
From Domain: The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald can confirm that Victoria will announce 64 new cases of coronavirus on Tuesday. That number is down from Monday’s 75 cases. Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said on Monday that he was worried numbers would go up this week as results from the door-to-door suburban testing
