David Llewellyn-Smith


Mortgage leading indicator surges

Via CoreLogic, listings have rebounded but remain very weak: Mortgages are rebounding strongly: Though this index does not take account of investor mortgages which remain very weak: Conditions for price rises are obviously in place. But unless or until investors return I can’t see it all going boom. There’s just not enough income. We need


Rental markets bifurcate as units sink

Via CoreLogic: Rental conditions continued to diverge through November. Capital city house rents were 0.7% higher in November while unit rents were down -0.6%. The monthly data follows a now well established trend where house rents have shown a more positive trajectory than unit rents since the onset of COVID. Across the combined capitals, unit


Chinese propaganda goes apeshit

Lol. This is the greatest. Via Global Times: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison lost his diplomatic manners on Monday by attacking Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian who condemned Australian soldiers’ atrocity against Afghan civilians on his personal Twitter account. Morrison claimed that his country felt offended so he shamelessly demanded an apology from China.


Australian dollar breakout collapses

DXY was a little firmer last night: The Australian dollar breakout collapsed: Gold firmed as oil fell: Base metals were mixed as copper enters blowoff: Miners were hit: EM stocks too: Junk is fine: Treasuries bid: Stocks eased: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US pending home sales rose 1.0% in October, beating expectations of


The importance of the yuan to markets

A nice piece by GaveKal: 2) The renminbi and 10-year US treasury yields The chart above shows the same periods of renminbi strength and weakness, but this time overlaid by the 10-year US treasury yield. The match-ups are not perfect, of course—multiple factors influence US treasury yields. Even so, the chart suggests a number of


Breaking: Depressionberg looks in mirror, sees Brad Pitt

Via AFR: The JobKeeper wage subsidy is being paid to 700,000 fewer people than forecast in the October 6 budget, which the federal government says shows the economy is recovering faster than anticipated. The latest Australian Tax Office data released by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg shows the number of JobKeeper recipients fell from 3.6 million employees


HomeBuilder cut

Via the ABC: A Federal Government program offering cash grants for housing construction projects has been extended, but at a lower amount. The HomeBuilder scheme currently provides $25,000 grants to eligible people building a new home or renovating an existing one. It had been due to expire at the end of the year but will


Yet another visa category exposed as giant rort

Via Murdoch: Exclusive: It was set up to attract the best and brightest from around the world, but Australia’s Global Talent visa program has become a farce, attracting hairdressers instead of rocket scientists. Immigration experts say the program, which is the fastest way to get Australian permanent residency, is laden with loopholes and being exploited.


China PMIs firm but…

Via China’s NBS comes the manufacturing PMI In November , China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 52.1% , an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month , and was above the threshold for nine consecutive months, indicating that the recovery growth of the manufacturing industry has accelerated. In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 53.0% ,


Australia’s creditless recovery

Via RBA credit aggregates: The table below presents a summary of the latest financial aggregates statistics. Financial Aggregates Percentage change Monthly Year-ended September 2020 October 2020 October 2019 October 2020 Total credit 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.8 – Housing 0.4 0.3 2.9 3.3 – Personal −1.0 −0.7 −4.7 −12.7 – Business −0.4 −0.3 2.7 1.4 Broad


No, ScoMo, you should not support China’s trade victims

Via The Australian: Scott Morrison has flagged government support for producers hit by China’s trade sanctions as Australia moves to lodge a formal protest with the World Trade Organisation. …“As a government we will be looking at how we can get a number of our producers through this difficult time,” Mr Morrison told ABC radio.


EU proposes new anti-China alliance with US

Alexander Downer was never the sharpest cross-dresser in the shed, at the AFR he declares: China’s aggression will, in the end, prove to be entirely counterproductive. There are two reasons why. First, other countries have indeed been warned that China will treat them with the same aggression should they in some way transgress and incur


Manufacturers demand gas reservation price trigger

Via The Australian: Major gas users including billionaire Anthony Pratt’s Visy Industries, Qenos, Incitec Pivot and Orica took part in a high-level meeting on Thursday with Resources Minister Keith Pitt and Energy Minister Angus Taylor to put forward their case for the radical policy change. Sources said a draft heads of agreement was set to


Pointless Shadow RBA falls into line

Via The Shadow: The coronavirus is now well contained in Australia, Victoria has lifted many of if its restrictions, and most state borders have opened. Unless there is another outbreak that prompts strong action, Australia should be able to reap the economic benefits of this normalisation. The inflation rate (0.7% year-on-year based on the latest


Aussie GDP preview

Thanks to Westpac’s always excellent Andrew Hanlan: Overview The Australian National Accounts, to be released on Wednesday December 2, will provide an estimate of economic activity for the September quarter. This year has been the most extraordinary period. The nation endured an unprecedented temporary and partial shut-down in an effort to contain the spread of


The US third virus wave is peaking

Good news. Cases in the US third wave appear to be peaking: Both cases and hospitalisations are seeing a flattening curve. Deaths will climb for a few more weeks. All regions bar the north east have improved: Cases are falling where lockdowns are strongest, as you’d expect. There must be an asterisk over this data


Newspoll: ScoMo maintains slim polling lead

A Federal Parliament that roughly divides down the lines of the Coalition being terrible on everything except China versus Labor being better on everything except being captured by China shakes our as a narrow Newspoll lead for the Government:   Popular support for Scott Morrison has risen to its highest level in four months following


How to de-escalate China tensions

Kelly’s cowards returned on the weekend to demand Scott Morrison prostrate himself before Xi Jinping. Paul Kelly led them off: This week Morrison sent a series of messages but his most important theme — tricky but critical — is for Australia’s status as an independent player to be better recognised, as a nation allied to


You can’t vaccinate for corruption

Via the AFR: Questions over clinical trial data for AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine have not derailed plans to begin immunising Australians from March, Health Minister Greg Hunt says. Mr Hunt downplayed concerns over the vaccine may be less effective than initially reported, as AstraZeneca announced it would conduct a further trial. “Our vaccine timeframe is unchanged,”