Houses and Holes


Goldman: Aussie dollar to rise

I hate agreeing with Goldman, especially on Australia, where it has been horribly wrong for years (being far too bullish). To be honest, the cross-over with mine and the GS view is minimal. The RBA is going to cut. And that will pressure the AUD. But I do agree that the AUD has a good


Weak AUD, strong bonds trigger ASX gains

The Aussie dollar is soft this morning: Bonds are well bid on the approach of widely expected weak CPI: Which has helped push XJO to 2019 highs: Dalian is soft: Big Iron strong despite broker downgrades: Big Gas  is soaring with oil and cartel east especially strong on the news of Labor’s Beetaloo pipeline play:


Coalition of corruption sinks into filth

Every day it’s a steady drumbeat of dodgy. Via The Australian: The Morrison government is making a direct election pitch to mortgage brokers, telling them Labor will hit their industry and “accelerate the slowdown” in the housing market. The letter sent to mortgage brokers, and obtained by The Australian, was signed by Prime Minister Scott


CBA jobsmageddon under spotlight as credit chokes

Via Banking Day: Fact and exaggeration over the extent of branch closures and job cuts at Commonwealth Bank will be flushed out before the Fair Work Commission. The Finance Sector Union yesterday lodged a dispute with the FWC, which will drag CBA’s bank’s plans or lack of them into the public eye early next month.


Betting markets give LNP a bit more chance

Via Mark the Ballot: Interestingly, the odds for the Coalition have improved slightly since the election was called. This morning they stand as follows. The odds charts follow. And the implied Coalition win probabilities are as follows. The individual seat markets provide a window on how punters think the election race is progressing. At the


Bob Carr needs lessons in economics and power

Some good news for Australian sovereignty under Labor, via Domain: Labor was briefed on the government’s decision last year. Labor sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive policy matters, said the advice from security agencies’ is unequivocal and there was no appetite to review the ban. One source said the evidence that


US approves enormous new LNG projects

It’s something to behold, via Bloomie: Tellurian Inc.’s proposed $28 billion Driftwood terminal in Louisiana and Sempra Energy’s Port Arthur LNG project in Texas were cleared by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in a 3-1 vote in Washington, with Democratic Commissioner Richard Glick dissenting. The approvals followed a breakthrough at the commission, which had been


Australian bosses, not workers, are the bludgers

The AFR led with an embarrassing story across Easter that shows how low it has sunk in the intellectual stakes: By forgoing the possibility of creating a dynamic economy of the South Pacific, Shorten has rejected his own political heritage and embraced a higher-tax platform that delights the left of his party. A Shorten government


Too many climate McKibbins

There’s one at Domain: The key economist cited in the election row on climate change has doused fears of a major blow to growth from deeper cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, saying the impact would be a “small fraction” of the economy by 2030. Australian National University Professor Warwick McKibbin said federal government policy to


China confirms more credit

Via Zero Hedge: Back to the Politburo statement which found that proactive fiscal policy should improve effectiveness and efficiency, “while prudent monetary policy should be appropriate in terms of looseness and tightness.” A notable change from the October, December and February meetings, is that there was no mention of the goal of maintaining “6 stabilizations” (on employment,


SEEK hoses strong ABS jobs

Via BI: As seen in the table below from employment website SEEK, job advertisements for property workers are now also falling fast. Seek has recorded the percentage change in advertisements on its platform in the year to March. The downturn in the housing market has had a major impact on demand for workers with ads


A detailed look at business job intentions

Via the NAB quarterly business survey: Both business conditions and confidence declined in the quarter. Conditions continued its downward trend since peaking in early 2018 and is now only just above average, suggesting the loss of momentum in the business sector has continued into early 2019. Confidence and forward orders turned negative in the quarter


Jobs report still firm

ABS Labor Force is out for March and the news is still pretty good: MARCH KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES Employment increased 20,700 to 12,790,000 persons. Full-time employment increased 18,000 to 8,781,800 persons and part-time employment increased 2,700 to 4,008,200 persons. Unemployment increased 3,000 to 675,700 persons. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%. Participation rate remained


Sensible Tim Storer seeks Treasury repair at exit

Via The Australian: Senator Storer said if an ­incoming Labor government dragged the Senate back before June 30 to ram through part of its policy platform before the composition of the upper house changes following the election, he would attempt to push the government to ban Treasury costings of opposition parties. “Treasury and all other


UBS: Avoid banks as NAB warns

Another bank profit warning: UBS remains highly skeptical: …underlying trends are likely to remain very soft and deteriorating: (1) Volume growth should continue to slow as the credit squeeze continues and banks move to improve expense verification (reduced reliance on the HEM benchmark). (2) A bounce in NIM is expected following mortgage repricing. But how


CBA Flash PMI edges up but sends big warning

Via the CBA Flash PMI: The Commonwealth Bank Flash Services Business Activity Index is designed to provide a timely indication of changes in business activity in the Australian service sector economy as a whole. Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business activity on the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show deterioration. Services business


More Chinese stimulus coming

Via Bloomie: Officials are drafting measures to bolster sales of cars and electronics, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because they aren’t authorized to discuss the plan. That news coincided with data showing a 6.4 percent year-on-year expansion in the first quarter — beating economists’ estimates. China’s latest


Scummo losing the tax debate

The world’s most boring election continues. Via The Australian comes the cost carbon mitigation: Australian businesses could be forced to spend more than $25 billion on international carbon credits to meet Labor’s 45 per cent emissions reduction targets by 2030, jeopardising one of Bill Shorten’s fundamental election pillars, which he declared would have no cost to


Solving the RBA’s employment puzzle

Via Bill Evans at Westpac: The minutes of the April monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board have provided the clearest signal yet that the Bank would be prepared to cut the cash rate. Firstly, the final section “Considerations for Monetary Policy” states “a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to