As I analysed the recent MYEFO projections, one thing stood out: Here’s the economic outlook: GDP for this year might be OK but it’s odds-on too bullish. But 2020/21 is deluded and so are the outer years. It is tradition to forecast Futureboom! to bailout today’s stupidity. But it doesn’t ususally accompany a forecast commodities bust which
The ABS is out with November Labour Force and the news is all good: NOVEMBER KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES Employment increased by 17,400 to 12,962,000 people. Full-time employment increased by 8,300 to 8,843,600 people and part-time employment increased by 9,000 to 4,118,400 people. Unemployment decreased by 1,200 to 716,300 people. Unemployment rate decreased by less
Via Bloomie: A nice interview with Stanley which, with MB’s four horsemen of the apocalypse vanquished by policymakers, makes a good base case for some kind of global bounce in 2020. We still don’t think it will be a glowing recovery even if the fiscal spending helps, largly because China will keep slowing. We agree
Via the WSJ: China’s sovereign-wealth fund is coming to the aid of a troubled lender in a 100 billion yuan ($14.28 billion) bailout, the latest show of government support for the banking sector, which has come under intensifying financial stress as the economy slows. Hengfeng Bank, based in eastern China’s Shandong Province, will sell 100
Via CoreLogic comes the 2020 outlook for property: Housing prices are likely to trend higher through the year. At a broad level, we expect dwelling values to trend higher in 2020, however at a reduced pace of growth relative to the second half of 2019. Factors that will propel values higher include the stimulatory effect
Even the super funds are at it, via Banking Day: In an embarrassing admission, ME Bank yesterday confirmed that it underpaid staff A$1.5 million in superannuation entitlements for more than a decade. The bank, which is owned by industry super funds, last week notified 2144 current and former employees about the underpayments that were caused
Via the AFR: It’s the cover-up that has backfired, whipping Scott Morrison’s well-earned pre-Christmas break into a controversy. Over the weekend, the Prime Minister’s minders ordered the media not to report that he had taken leave. This bizarre overreach was designed to protect Mr Morrison from churlish criticism for leaving his post while the bushfires
Iron ore charts for December 18, 2019: Spot is down. Paper stable. Steel has not updated. It’s worth nothing that the BDI is strongly suggesting that the restock is past its peak: Another sign of a topping market is spreads, via Argus: Australian iron ore mining company BHP has widened January-March discounts for some of
DXY was up and away last night: The Australian dollar was buoyed against DMs: Not so much EMs: Gold is hanging on: Oil is taking off on reflation hopes, shale to follow if this keeps up: Metals did better but are still weak: Miners fell: EM stocks lifted: Junk is cheering oil reflation: Bonds were
Recall the words of CCP economic working group: First, we will unswervingly implement the new vision for development; 二是坚决打好三大攻坚战 Second, we will resolutely fight the “three tough battles”;三是确保民生特别是困难群众基本生活得到有效保障和改善 Third, we will ensure that people’s well being, especially the basic living standards of those in need, are effectively guaranteed and improved; 四是继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。 Fourth, we will continue
Via the ABC: The Acting Prime Minister has insisted it is appropriate for Scott Morrison to be having a Christmas break outside of Australia. Michael McCormack has confirmed the Prime Minister is overseas with his family at an undisclosed location. Some Labor MPs have posted online barbs to criticise Mr Morrison for taking a break
Via Australian Government: All strata: All states: We think this has at least six months to go, if not twelve. Go Recessionberg. Full report.
Yesterday we had “Pompous Pete” Hartcher telling us all that we’re all racists: For Trump and Johnson, it really is all about winning. The first achievement of right-wing populism was, through men such as these two, to storm the bastions of the centre-right establishment. The movement’s impulses of nationalism, xenophobia, protectionism and populism now inhabit
Thanks Ken, via AFR: At the same time National Australia Bank (NAB) was pushing back on the corporate regulator’s investigation into the fee-for-no-service scandal, several of the bank’s own internal reviews had identified major deficiencies in its record keeping and risk management systems, which are now the subject of a Federal Court lawsuit. As chairman
The scale of China’s trade pledge task is daunting: Clyde Russell has some musings on what it will mean Downunder: Beijing has agreed to increase purchases from the United States by $200 billion over the next two years over and above the level of imports in 2017, according to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. …While
I honestly don’t know how Millennials don’t burst spontaeously into flames of rage, via Domain: With properties hidden away off the grid in remote locations, popular travel startups based out of tiny houses are keeping a careful eye on bushfires. Startups including Unyoked and Shacky advertise themselves as enabling users to get “easy access to the
Vai Westpac: The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell from –0.78% in October to –0.81% in November. The Leading Index growth rate has now been below trend for the last
Via SCMP: China’s first home-built aircraft carrier was officially commissioned by President Xi Jinping on Tuesday as Beijing flexed its military muscles. The new warship will be called the Shandong and its formal entry into service is a significant milestone in the country’s efforts to build up its naval power. This drive has been viewed
Via the ABC: Four hundred people have lost their jobs a week out from Christmas after a group of building supply businesses in Melbourne’s west went bust. The SWC Management group, which operates out of a massive newly redeveloped warehouse in Melbourne’s western suburbs, announced it was going into voluntary administration on Tuesday, with advisory
Every year, once per year, Australians are treated to an exposion of pomposity at the Orica annual general meeting, via Domain: Influential businessman and Orica chairman Malcolm Broomhead has lamented the rise of a culture of “self-righteousness” and a mindset where people are “intolerant” of others. In a speech to Orica shareholders, Mr Broomhead said
What happens when you put a micro-economimc guy in charge of macro-economic policy? This: Rushing to cut interest rates further could have risked overstimulating the economy, says Reserve Bank board member Ian Harper. …“Lags in monetary policy have always been long and variable, and in this environment you don’t want to jump the gun (with
I’ve been struggling to find the right label for Labor leader Anthony Albanese for some time. I don’t make these things up. They are an expression of the essence of the person. But today it is finally clear. As all of Australia is burning, at News: As the PM Scott Morrison flies off into the
Texture from Reuters: Meanwhile, official data on Monday showed China’s real estate investment grew at a slower pace in November at 8.4% year-on-year, while new construction starts contracted last month after a surge in October. month’s property data is significantly lower than expected,” Huatai Futures said in a note, adding that ferrous prices plunged following
DXY was up last night: The Australian dollar was universally belted: Gold eased: Oil appears to want more shale, which it does not need: Metals are still meh: Miners rolled: EM stocks jumped: With junk: Bonds were a mix: Stocks were still bid: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US industrial production rose 1.1% in Nov
Via Bill Evans at Westpac: The minutes of the December monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board have made it clear that the Board will be reassessing the economic outlook next February. Whilst it seems reasonable at the end of the year to note that a review will occur at the beginning of the
Via Martin North: The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has today formally commenced an investigation into possible breaches of the Banking Act 1959 by Westpac Banking Corporation (Westpac). APRA will focus on the conduct that led to the matters alleged last month by AUSTRAC, as well as the bank’s actions to rectify and remediate the
There’s no stopping a business lobby moron: Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox said the budget could afford fiscal stimulus “should the economy fail to pick up steam in the next few months”. “If there is further slowing of domestic activity, measures to stimulate business investment, address the difficulties small businesses are having accessing
In a magnificent outpouring of guff today at the AFR, L-plate Tresurer Josh Frydenberg puts all stimulus hopes to bed: As we go forward, we will continue to maintain a disciplined and responsible approach to managing the nation’s finances. We will not be panicked into reckless spending. With the budget back under control, our fiscal
As expected: Financial Markets Members noted that interest rates were very low around the world, with a number of central banks having eased monetary policy over recent months in response to downside risks to the global economy and subdued inflation. Market expectations for further policy easing by central banks had been scaled back over previous
Via Westpac’s always superb Red Book. The consumer is dead: Whodunnit? RBA and Treasury: After the tax cuts comes…trouble: More Bad Santa: Major items meh: Let them eat house prices: Any windfall stuffed under matress: Deleveraging rife: Worse unemployment and spending ahead: All states, blokes shocker: Households hate ZIRP: Bloody depressed on global scale: The
