David Llewellyn-Smith


Property locust attacks investors for not buying

Via the Property Locust: Investors using  the potential for a future natural disaster to not invest in a particular location should probably not bother investing at all, according to respected property market research firm and buyer’s agency Propertyology. This summer’s bushfires followed by flooding in various parts of the nation had made some people reconsider their investment strategy, Propertyology


Could the virus make the Eurozone?

Maybe. Via Bloomie: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she’s ready to consider joint debt issuance to help contain the impact of the coronavirus, an opening that could transform the finances of the European Union. The idea was raised by Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte on a video conference between the 27 EU leaders on Tuesday,


Leading index shows “Australia vulnerable”

Via Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell from –0.49% in January to –0.96% in February. The Index growth rate has been running consistently below trend for 15


Property Armageddon scenarios revisited

Via Martin North: We have updated our scenarios, driven from our core market models. The drivers are rising unemployment, and business failure thanks to the impact of the virus. We discussed these scenarios in our live stream event last night. This is the full version with live chat. The show starts formally at 32 minutes.


Hysteria overtakes bond markets

Bond markets. Whoa! Last night Treasury yields jack-knifed again: Why is not clear. There was rumour and scuttlebutt around Trump’s $1tr simulus. But inflation breakevens are crashing: So the Treasury sell makes little sense in terms of a punt on a v-shaped recovery and/or fiscally induced inflation. That leaves us with risk parity fund liquidation,


New Zealand humiliates Recessionberg stimulus

Via News: The New Zealand government has splashed the cash in a bid to lessen an expected coronavirus-induced recession, unveiling a $NZ12.1 billion worth of support package. A wage guarantee, welfare increases, an aviation industry bailout, tax relief and new health spending feature in the bumper package, equivalent to 4 per cent of GDP –


S&P: Bank loan losses to double

Via S&P: MELBOURNE (S&P Global Ratings) March 17, 2020–Australian banks can absorb the increase in credit losses and disruption to funding markets due to the COVID-19 outbreak without posing any immediate or significant risks to the banks’ creditworthiness, S&P Global Ratings said today. Our analysis reflects our expectation that Australia’s real GDP growth will fall


Roy Morgan: 60% of SMEs hit by COVID-19

Via Roy Morgan: In mid-March over 60% of Australian businesses report being affected by the COVID-19 coronavirus, up a massive 45% points from a month ago according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey of 1,148 Australian businesses. Analysing the results in more granular detail shows 17% of businesses report being affected ‘A great


China to hit 6% growth target no worries (lol)

Rather, to lie about hitting it, via Global Times: Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), media have expressed concern over the Chinese economy. COVID-19 may impact the domestic economy, but its fundamentals will remain unchanged. The engines that drive the domestic economy are just as powerful before the outbreak. The country will not


Morrison should update his worst case scenario

Via Domain: Up to 150,000 Australians could die from the coronavirus under the Morrison government’s worst-case scenario, as it considers advice on restricting visits to pubs, cinemas and aged care homes. Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said on Monday that the number of infections would be “somewhere in the range” of 20 per cent


Mathias Cormann’s LIT crash guts punters

In 2014, the Coalition spearheaded by Mathias Cormann opened a loophole in FOFA legislation that allowed listed investment vehicles called LICs and LITs to exclusively pay financial advisor commissions. Via the AFR earlier this year: The federal Labor Opposition has slammed a loophole created by the Coalition government that allows financial advisers to sell listed