Via S&P: Australian prime home-loan arrears remained steady in June, with the Standard & Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages slipping 1 basis point to 1.51% from a month earlier. That’s according to S&P Global Ratings’ “RMBS Arrears Statistics: Australia,” published today. Arrears typically decline in June and throughout the third quarter. Mortgage
Via the ABS just now: TREND ESTIMATES Employment increased 24,600 to 12,915,200 persons. Full-time employment increased 15,100 to 8,849,500 persons and part-time employment increased 9,600 to 4,065,700 persons. Unemployment increased 6,600 to 715,600 persons. Unemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to 5.3%. Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 66.1%. Monthly hours worked in
Here’s the chart: The BTC news flow has been a bit rough with Barclays pulling the pin: The most prestigious banking relationship in crypto has ended. Barclays, the London-based global bank, is no longer working with cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, industry sources told CoinDesk. And while Coinbase found a replacement in U.K. upstart ClearBank, according to
From BKL: I know nothing about this stock but I know a bad chart when I see one. Critical support just gave way: Funny, emerging Asian middle class demand still seems a good growth story and it’s not expensive at 19x. Still, today it appears ex-growth and is being punished for it.
Via BofAML: The BofAML August Global Fund Manager Survey The nut: August BofAML FMS most bullish on rates since 2008 as trade war concerns send recession risk to 8-year high; investors slash exposure to cyclicals to buy US Treasuries & US growth stocks; with global policy stimuli at a 2.5-year low, onus is on Fed/ECB/PBoC
Jim Rickards tonic for Ray Dalio China bull, at the Daily Reckoning: China’s shock currency devaluation last week begs the following questions: Is China a rising giant of the twenty-first century poised to overtake the United States in wealth and military prowess? Or is it a house of cards preparing to implode? I made my first
From the Lunatic RBA just now: Risks to the Outlook Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor Today I am going to talk about some of the key risks around the outlook for the Australian economy. I will draw on the material published last week in the August Statement on Monetary Policy. On the global side, I will discuss
All new highs for long end Aussie bonds again today: The very long end has cratered to near inversion with cash with the 15 year just 2bps away: This is screaming recession at Australia and declaring the extinction of inflation. Spreads to the US are flattening out: As the US is drawn inexorably into the
Via the New York Times: As the police deploy tear gas against protesters on the streets of Hong Kong, another battle is raging less visibly: the one for narrative control. After weeks of asserting that the unrest had been orchestrated by foreign “black hands,” Chinese officials on Monday accused protesters of showing the first signs of “terrorism.” Such messaging is
Texture from the AFR: Australia supplied a record 74 per cent of China’s imported iron ore in June, according to trade figures, almost double the monthly average from 10 years ago. As the world’s largest manufacturer and second biggest economy, China is also reliant on Australian coal and uranium to keep the lights on and
DXY was up last night. So was CNY but not EUR: The Australian dollar was monstered across DMs: EMs were even worse: Gold hit new highs: Oil was belted: Metals hit: Miners slammed: EM stocks are at the brink: EM junk is over it: The Treasury curve cratered: And bunds: And Aussie: Stocks were smashed:
As the Chinese economy buckles under the weight of the trade war, it’s time we ask a prickly question. Why are authorities NOT stimulating? That they need to is not in question. Growth is already at the bottom of its forecast range at 6.2%: It is sliding away further as we speak as its industrial
It’s just not fair. Tiny houses are so cute. Adorable. Our kids should all be jammed into tiny houses so we can admire them there, like little marsupials with big, glowing eyes inside a shoe box. Then along came the dystopian council: With no specific legislation for tiny houses, some councils are treating them as buildings that
This is simply corruption, at the New Daily: Christopher Pyne opened negotiations over a lucrative defence consultancy while he was still serving as defence minister in Scott Morrison’s cabinet. The revelations are outlined in a submission to a parliamentary inquirylodged by his new employer EY Consulting on Tuesday. Mr Pyne has previously been cleared of any
I used to think Guy Rundle was one the leading intellects of the left in Australia but, for years, he has gotten lost in fake left racial hysteria. Yesterday he wrote a piece on China that literally boggled the mind at Crikey: Say what you like about the Chairman, but he had a phrase for
In May, Goldman declared the iron ore boom over: The price of steelmaking ingredient of iron ore has peaked, according to Goldman Sachs but will remain at elevated levels because of strong demand from China. Iron ore has surged in the wake of the deadly dam disaster in January forced Vale, the world’s biggest supplier,
China’s July data dump is out and there is no hiding the pain now. Industrial production hit the lowest level in living memory at 4.8%, retail sales retraced sharply to 7.6% and fixed asset investment slowed to 5.8%: Under the bonnet, real estate sales continue to fall: With developer land purchases signalling much worse ahead
What madness is this? Via The Australian: NSW has given critical status to a second LNG import terminal as it seeks to avoid potential gas shortages hitting the state on peak demand days from 2023. A proposed $590 million gas plant on Newcastle’s Kooragang Island, which could supply up to 80 per cent of NSW’s
Via Westpac: Superficially this result comes as somewhat of a surprise given that the survey was conducted against a turbulent backdrop with global financial markets roiled by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, the ASX down 3.4% and the AUD off 3c US since the July survey. However, the result does come in
She’ll be right. Via the ABC: Ties linking new Federal Liberal MP Gladys Liu to a secretive international influence arm of the Chinese Government have been uncovered by the ABC. Ms Liu, who made history after becoming the first Chinese-Australian woman to gain a seat in the Lower House, was appointed honorary chairman of a Hong Kong-based
Texture from Argus: Negative margins have forced Chinese steelmakers to cut output by more than 1mn t in August, sending domestic prices higher today. More than 30 mills in Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Gansu, Sichuan and Fujian have announced maintenance shutdowns that will cut production by at least 1.15mn t of output in August, equivalent to
Via SCMP: Defiant anti-government protesters brought unprecedented violence to Hong Kong International Airport on Tuesday night, clashing with riot police after severely disrupting flights, even as officials secured an injunction order against those occupying the terminal building. A source confirmed that the Airport Authority, represented by senior counsel Benjamin Yu, was granted the injunction by
Worrying stuff today as the AFR makes an editorial turn for “peace in our time” with China, no doubt egged on by captured Australian business interests. Yesterday it ran a piece by Andrew Sheng is Distinguished Fellow of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council
DXY and CNY were up and EUR down: The Australian dollar jumped against DMs: EMs were even stronger: Gold gave back: Oil surged: Metals firmed: Miners too: And EM stocks: US junk was fine, EM not: Treasuries were belted but the curve crashed again: Bunds were bid: Aussie followed US: Stocks took off: It was
As Australia builds its powerful new “bullshit jobs” economy, it’s useful to contemplate some of the downsides, via FTAlphaville: Any student of emerging markets will tell you that financing a current account deficit with imported capital always seems like a good idea. That is, until investors panic and want their money back. But what if
More from Martin North: Martin has been behind the curve on the rebounding market so is probably looking for an excuse to catch up. It’s still not clear to me that the ASIC judgement will end private class actions. Nor that ASIC will be forced to dump any of its HEM reform. That said, you’d
He’s not fan of freedom if it delays his travels: “You are angry because your flight is cancelled.” One stranded Australian tourist got into an argument with protesters at Hong Kong airport, saying they supported independence and that police should crack down harder. It didn’t go well for him. https://t.co/7TryMbHrEW pic.twitter.com/x7dIuNQ5ot — 𝕛𝕒𝕞𝕖𝕤 𝕘𝕣𝕚𝕗𝕗𝕚𝕥𝕙𝕤 🇭🇰🏴
Via the Lunatic: The Usual Transmission – Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions Christopher Kent[*]Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Address to Finance & Treasury AssociationSydney – 13 August 2019 Introduction I’d like to start by thanking the Finance and Treasury Association for the opportunity to speak to you today about the transmission of monetary policy. In my current position
It might just be that we are the dumbest people on earth, via Domain: A Chinese company’s plans to take over healthcare giant Healius is raising concerns in Canberra because the deal could compromise Australian Defence Force medical records, including those of elite special forces. …The ADF’s prized Garrison Health Services contract was last year
Via the AFR: The chemical industry has issued a fresh call for government intervention to bring down east coast gas prices, backed by new findings that every petajoule of gas used by chemical makers supports 80 times more jobs and creates 33 times more economic value than the LNG sector does. “We would like government
