Houses and Holes

6

ASIC hoses Costello push for mortgage fraud

Peter Costello covered himself in glory again this week: Former federal treasurer Peter Costello says Australia’s monetary policy has probably run its course and believes some changes to responsible lending laws would stimulate the economy. Mr Costello said there was “a lot of intervention” following the Hayne royal commission earlier this year, which may have

3

Will China take the stimulus plunge again?

Via the FT: China’s fixed-asset investment growth has sunk to its lowest level in two decades as the Chinese leadership’s cautious stimulus fails to prop up the domestic economy in the face of a deepening slowdown. … The deepening economic slowdown, intensified by the US-China trade row, has ratcheted up pressure on Beijing to launch

11

Where did the rate and tax cuts go? Debt

Recessionberg is looking for tax cuts. Via Domain: The Morrison government is looking at ways to deliver tax relief to middle income earners as a much-needed boost to the economy after the nation suffered its biggest one-month fall in jobs in more than three years. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the government was “always looking” at

1

Daily iron ore price update (Pavlov’s dogs)

Texture from Reuters: Steel output was also curtailed by poor profits at mills. Besides surging iron ore prices that have pressured steel firms this year, analysts also noted that output from electric arc furnaces has been affected by higher scrap steel prices. “The price for steel scrap increased by almost 100 yuan ($14.30) per tonne

97

Can Hong Kong anarchy “happen anywhere”

So says the FT: Demonstrators and police officers are experiencing a kind of epiphany when they realise there are no repercussions for smashing the thin veneer of civility. As a consequence, the range of acceptable behaviour has widened dramatically and the most brazen and outrageous actions are becoming normalised. This is fed by social media

12

Universities required to declare CCP links

Via the AFR: Under sweeping new rules, universities will have to fully disclose who they’re working with on research projects and all financial dealings with other countries and donors, as the federal government demands action against “corrupting” foreign interference. Amid concern about China’s influence in universities that have become heavily financially dependent on foreign students, research projects

2

More on how far equities can get

More today from the BofAML fundie survey: 1. The bulls are back…global recession concerns vanish and “Fear of Missing Out” prompts wave of optimism and jump in exposure to equities & cyclicals. 2. We say…easy part of rally over, tougher part of rally beginning…but rally it can as no “excess greed” (BofAML Bull & Bear

13

China wins right to develop African Pilbara killer

Via the FT: A Chinese-backed joint venture has secured the rights to develop Simandou, one of the world’s biggest untapped deposits of steelmaking ingredient iron ore. The award to the SMB-Winning consortium, whose investors include Chinese aluminium producer Shandong Weiqiao and the Yantaï Port Group, brings the development of a mine a step closer. Simandou

1

Green shoots for the Aussie economy or spreading weeds?

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: The Westpac consumer confidence report for November registered more improvement. After 3 rate cuts, tax cuts, the announcement of first home-buying incentives, and credit easing, consumer confidence was looking particularly dire by October, falling well below neutral levels. It looked very much like consumers were responding to the bad

1

Nomura: Bond puke over

Via Zero Hedge comes CTA wizard Charlie McElligott of Nomura: Nomura’s Charlie McElligott who echoed what we said on Saturday, writing that “the Treasury selloff feels “tactically tired,” with positioning now well-cleansed (massive duration sale from leveraged funds in the last reporting period, plus short-term CTA model now-having established their “short” TY and ED$ positions

14

Beware peddlers of Armageddon

Via FTAlphaville: In the summer of 2018, Alphaville observed that there seemed to be a paradoxical bull market in being bearish. Since the financial crisis and the ensuing rise to fame of the investors who called — and profited significantly from — it (Bass, Burry, Eisman, Paulson, Gross et al.) there have been almost constant calls for

0

Daily iron ore price update (Hedland)

Texture via Reuters: Benchmark Dalian iron ore futures jumped in morning trade on Wednesday, extending gains for a second session, after China’s Premier Li Keqiang again vowed to ensure that key economic goals for this year are achieved. China should keep macro policies stable, improve the use of local government special bonds and strengthen support

0

UBS: 2020 global growth to be weak again

Via UBS: We expect a recovery in 2020 but a much weaker one than consensus Things will get worse before they get better. Assuming any Phase One US-China deal is limited (no tariff roll-back), the existing tariffs should continue to work their way into the data and create an air-pocket in US growth in H1-20`

3

How far can equities run?

The BoAML fundie survey is out, via AFR: “The bulls are back,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at the bank. “Investors are experiencing FOMO – the fear of missing out – which has prompted a wave of optimism and jump in exposure to equities and cyclicals.” The survey found that investors are adding risk: