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Macro Afternoon

A relatively mixed start o the trading week for Asian stocks in response to very solid session on Wall Street on Friday night, with Chinese stocks the laggards as the USD returns to strength. The Australian dollar has faltered slightly to be just below the 71 cent level while Euro continues to fall going into

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NDIS rorters run rampant

When the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) began to be rolled out in 2016, we warned that it would attract an army of fraudsters middle-men seeking their slice of the multi-billion honey pot on offer. After all, witnessed similar rorting under the private vocational education and training (VET) and pink batts schemes, alongside the rorting

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Norway shows Australia the way on gas super profits taxes

The Australia Institute’s chief economist and executive director, Richard Denniss, has published startling analysis showing that the Norwegian Government will this year collect $137 billion from their oil industry courtesy of their well designed super profits tax. In turn, Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund will soar to $1.8 trillion – shared among only 5.3 million people.

5

Chairman Dan gains unassailable election lead

Despite mass ministerial resignations/retirements, Melbourne’s seven months of hard lockdowns, mass privatisations (despite promising otherwise), and a raft of corruption scandals, Daniel Andrews’ Victorian Government is headed for an even bigger majority at the upcoming Victorian election: The ALP on 60.5% (up 1% point from early July) has increased its election-winning lead in Victoria over the

2

Economists back gas reservation and super profits taxes

The latest survey of “48 leading economists” by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation asked “what other actions could authorities take to bring the inflation rate down?”. The second and third most popular choices related to reining in the gas cartel via domestic reservation and super profits taxes on fossil fuel producers: It’s

2

Global inflation still rising

Morgan Stanley with the note. Global headline inflation climbed to 6.7%Y in June vs 6.3%Y in May. Food and energy prices are still main drivers. Global FX depreciation against the US dollar does not help, we analyze the FX pass-through to headline inflation and identify the most-exposed economies. Global inflation is still increasing, and recent

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Four variables that will determine Australia’s house price crash

Australia’s auction results rallied for the third consecutive week, with the preliminary clearance rate lifting above 60% for the first time since early June after 61.5% of auctions returned a successful result (up 2.0% from last week): The rebound nationally was driven by Melbourne, whose preliminary clearance rate rebounded to 65.5%. This was the highest

2

How fast will US inflation fall?

Nordea sees it as slow and painful and not just in America. ——————————————————————————————————————————- The global economy continues to lose momentum, but central banks will concentrate on their efforts to rein in inflation. Long yields will rebound to higher levels, while the EUR/USD has more downside left. Many leading economic indicators have taken a beating, and

6

No bears left!

The Market Ear with more on how far the bear market rally has run to correct market positioning. Short covering getting extreme Short covering getting extreme as net US hedge fund flows turn positive. JPM writes: “…the short covering has been the main driver of late and is now one of the most extreme in the

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Macro Morning

Stock markets finished the trading week with vigour on Friday night with big gains on Wall Street as inflation expectations may have peaked with the latest US CPI print. The USD returned to form and gained some 0.5% against the major currencies with Euro in the main retracing back most of its post-CPI gains, while

0

No FOMO! Shorts pile into Australian dollar

DXY was up Friday night: AUD is on a rampage: Oil eased: Metals too: The AUD miners are not rebounding much: EM stocks popped: Junk is food for bulls: But the Treasury curve is still deeply inverted: As stocks price Nirvana: Contrary to wider bullishness and FOMO, markets are getting more short AUD: While stock

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Labor launches biggest ever immigration program

After intimating for months, the Albanese Government confirmed over the weekend that it would use the upcoming Jobs & Skills Summit as cover to launch Australia’s biggest ever immigration program: The government wants to increase the migration intake to between 180,000 and 200,000 a year, which would bring in more skilled migrants including tradies, IT

9

Developers choke supply to drive up house prices

Dr Cameron Murray – author of the Book Game of Mates – gave stunning testimony to the parliamentary inquiry into housing affordability, whereby he documented how developers manipulate the land market to ration supply and maximise their profits. Shortly afterwards, ‘Highrise’ Harry Triguboff’s explained how Meriton had deliberately withheld apartment stock from the market to

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Links 15 August 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Wall Street Is Mostly to Blame for Rising Commodity Prices – Jacobin Back-From-Dead Stocks Show Near-Limitless Tolerance for Trouble  – Bloomberg U.S. Stocks Finish Higher, Extending Rally – WSJ Advertisers Plan To Use ‘Dream-Hacking’ To Implant Branding Into Your Dreams – Contxmedia Dow up 180 points as U.S. stocks

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Weekend Sundries: 13-14 August, 2022

  Geoff McVeigh Sunrise at North Broulee Bushy Statue at Bodalla Hotel Water tower at Sunrise, Narrandera Star Lodge at Narrandera Railway Station, Narrandera Railway Station at Narrandera II East St 151 Jonsens Buildings (built 1893) Narrandera East Street 92 to 94 (built in 1927 by Hayes and Dixon formerly Bank of NSW and Bendigo

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Weekend Reading: 13-14 August 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Businesses Should Prepare For Risk Of Civil Unrest From Food Scarcity – WSJ JPMorgan Traders ‘Ripped Off’ Gold Market for Years, Jurors Told – Bloomberg The logics that drive world economies do the favor of the elites at the expense of 99% – Films for Action Low Interest Rates

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Macro Afternoon

A flat end to the trading week for Asian stocks in response to the overnight hesitation on Wall Street, although Japanese shares are playing catchup after a mid-week holiday. Currency markets are still applying pressure to the USD with the Australian dollar pushing through the 71 cent level. Meanwhile oil prices are holding on to

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Soaring interest rates trap Aussies in ‘mortgage prison’

Australians that leveraged up to purchase property at the peak of the market risk being trapped in ‘mortgage prison’, according to mortgage experts. They warn that the combination of rising mortgage rates and falling house prices (negative equity) will impede their ability to refinance because they will no longer meet borrower stress tests, potentially trapping

4

FWO launches action against university wage thieves

The Fair Work Ombudsman (FWO has launched Federal Court action against the University of Melbourne, alleging that it engaged in unlawful adverse action against two casual academics. They had been engaged by the university on a series of short-term casual teaching contracts over a number of years, with their contracts setting out ‘anticipated hours’. However,