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RBC nails it.
Certainly, the US could deploy over 100,000 ground troops to attempt to physically reopen the Strait and remove the regime in Tehran. While such an operation could potentially provide the clearest path to a full reopening, the White House shows little enthusiasm for such an extensive and extended Middle East military commitment that would run counter to many of the America First campaign pledges.
That said, the ceasefire is exceedingly fragile, and fighting could resume. However, we still think any further action will likely fall short of a full- scale ground invasion necessary to force a reopening of the Strait.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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