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Bob Birrell, Katharine Betts and Ernest Healy from The Australian Population Research Institute (TAPRI) have published an excellent analysis of the purported ‘lurch to the right’ by Australian voters.
Since November 2025, opinion polls have shown a surge in support for One Nation. One Nation’s support has jumped from 5–6% to around 25% nationally.
In the voluminous media commentary, the dominant view is that this surge is due to the cost of living and other household budget issues. A few commentators have suggested that it may reflect Australian’ patriot feelings.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.