AlboGreens delivers housing super-shock to their base

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The Albanese government has raised inflation via unplanned mass immigration and energy policy failures. Spiking housing rents and utility bills have been the dominant force in inflation in 2023. They are the main reason the RBA was forced to backflip to hiking internet rates after pausing late last year.

Skyrocketing interest rates are now having the effect of forcing property investors out of the market as debt repayments easily outpace rental gains:

CoreLogic investor commitments

Worse is ahead as investor borrowing collapses:

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Quarterly mortgage growth by segment

Normally, MB would be cheering this to the bottom. But, owing to the perverse public policy of the AlboGreens, this will now add to the housing disaster for the most vulnerable cohort: renters.

As RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in 2013:

The RBA recognised that rising capital values were essential to triggering a dwelling construction boom in Australia’s supply inelastic property market.

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Albo’s policy failures have resulted in the opposite: rising rents but stalled capital values owing to the spike in interest rates.

There will be no new construction boom while these conditions last, even as AlboGreens juice the demand side with even higher numbers of migrant renters.

That means even higher rents. More inflation pressure. Higher interest rates for longer. And even fewer investors building rental properties.

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This is before we factor in the existing construction costs crisis, which also hammers the prospective stock of new dwellings as builders fall like flies.

There is no policy proposal on the table to fix any of it. the AlboGreesn negotiation is completely fake:

The Greens are prepared to dramatically scale back their demand for extra spending on housing in return for their support of Labor’s key $10 billion housing fund, as the federal government prepares to reintroduce the bill unchanged this week and set up the trigger for a double-dissolution election.

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The government has been in a months-long stand-off with the Greens over the Housing Australia Future Fund, which would pay out $500 million a year to help build 30,000 social and affordable homes in its first five years.

The minor party initially sought an additional direct investment of $5 billion a year in social and affordable housing and a $1.6 billion cash injection to get states and territories to agree to a two-year rent freeze, before cutting its request in June to $2.5 billion a year for housing and $1 billion for the rent freeze.

30k homes out of 1m needed to stop the crisis from worsening. While the private sector won’t build the other 97% as policy risk mushrooms.

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The AlboGreens open borders extremism and policy lunacy have delivered a housing super-shock for the people who put them into power.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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