Albert Edwards with an entertaining read. I don’t know where the US terminal rate level is, other than it is much lower than markets think.
Moreover, if the SocGen estimate of real monetary tightening via QT is accurate then the question arises how can monetary conditions tighten enough so quickly to spook the Fed into stopping. Put another way, what will be the major transmission mechanism into the real economy to spook the Fed so fast?
My answer is the stock market.