War and assets prices

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TS Lombard with a solid if a plodding note to help frame Ukraine’s impacts. I personally think that long-tail outcomes such as credit events and global recession are much more likely than this analysis suggests.

⚫ We are more cautious owing to the exceptional geopolitical uncertainty
⚫ Risk asset valuations have adjusted but not enough to buy the dip yet
⚫ Bond yields upside is now more limited owing to rising recession risks

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.