Son of BREE gets commodity prices right (finally)

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The Office of the Chief Economist has done a better job than I over the past year on commodity prices. Some might say that this is the phenomenon of the “stopped clock” but today we see it again providing sober analysis in its outlook, via The Guardian:

The value of Australia’s coal exports is forecast to decline sharply over the next 18 months as thermal coal prices drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices fall 23%.

The decline in the spot price of both products will see their combined export value fall from $60.8bn in 2018-19 to $49.9bn in 2019-20, a deterioration of 18%.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.