Investors flee Sydney and Melbourne housing bubbles

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By Leith van Onselen

Australia’s speculator frenzy continues to retreat, according to today’s Lending Finance data for May, released by the ABS.

As shown below, the annual value of investor loans in New South Wales (read Sydney) is falling fast, whereas Victoria (read Melbourne) is also moderating. Investor loans in the other major jurisdictions are either going sideways or in retreat:

Rolling annual growth in investor loans is negative everywhere, except Victoria, where they are flat:

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As at May 2018, investors accounted for a still staggering 52.1% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales (Sydney), now 0.3% below July 2016’s low and down sharply from the record 61.7% share posted in June 2015. Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) investor mortgage share also retraced to 42.5% in May, way down from June 2015’s 52.3% peak. The share of investor lending was never as dominant in the other major jurisdictions, nevertheless they also continue to retreat:

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Putting the two charts together for New South Wales (Sydney) produces the following:

Whereas the situation in Victoria (Melbourne) shows less of a pull-back:

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Clearly, investor demand continues to retreat, led by Sydney.

The latest bounce in first home buyer demand in Sydney and Melbourne, brought about by recent State Budget stamp duty incentives (implemented from 1 July 2017), has also helped reduce the investor mortgage share, back-filled the bubble, and stemmed the property price declines.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.