Queens Birthday Weekend Chartfest 9-11 June, 2018

Australia

 

Australia – selected growth metrics

 

Australia – retail sales

 

Australian Trade Balance

 

Company Earnings & Wages

 

Non farm compensation 

 

Effect of Governments personal tax cuts over time

 

Effect of Governments personal tax cuts over time 2

 

Sydney – Melbourne Auction Clearances

 

Distribution of Melbourne house sales prices over time

 

Melbourne real estate declines from the peak

 

Australia – Mortgage Rates and RE Prices…….well do you feel lucky?….

 

Australian Iron Ore exports

 

Australian M&A Activity

 

Impact of Government Superannuation, Pension and Tax Breaks

 

Impact of raising the Superannuation Guarantee

 

Australian Electricity prices

 

Price of new gas for southern states

 

South Australian electricity costs by source

 

Average wait times on calls to Human Services assistance lines

 

 

United States & Americas

 

Brazil Inflation

 

Mexico – Inflation

 

Toronto Homes

 

United States – Fed QE v US Government Debt

 

United States – Credit Creation

 

United States – Social Security Costs

 

US government financing

 

United States – Non-Financial Corporate Debt to GDP

 

United States Quits Layoffs & Hires

 

United States – Hourly Earnings

 

United States – Nominal income growth

 

United States – Corporate & labour income

 

Underemployed per Job Opening

 

US Job Openings and Unemployed

 

United States – unemployment by race

 

United States – labour participation

 

United States – Unemployment Rate

 

United States – manufacturing employees by State

 

United States – Household Finances

 

United States – Retail Trends

 

United States – median household income

 

United States – social mobility

 

United States – Consumer Spending

 

United States – E-Commerce and Department Stores

 

The share of the biggest sector in S&P

 

San Fransisco home sale prices by distribution

 

Electricity usage – United States

 

The largest US companies over time (yellow denotes descendant of the 1920s)…

 

 

China & Asia

 

China Shadow Banking and Corporate Debt

 

China Exports & House Price Inflation

 

China Global Power Investment

 

China – investment in global electricity

 

China Good Trade

 

China Debt to GDP

 

India – population without electricity

 

 

Europe

 

GDP & National Debt – Selected Eurozone

 

Current Account – Selected Eurozone

 

ECB Bonds as % of Government debt – Selected Eurozone

 

ECB purchases – selected Eurozone

 

Eurozone – Electricity prices

 

Eurozone – Electricity prices 2

 

Europe – Retail Turnover

 

France – Business Investment & External Demand

 

Germany – New Orders

 

Germany – Retail Turnover

 

Europe – Nations as Percentage of global consumer market

 

Italian 2 Years

 

Italian Government Debt – long run

 

Spain – Economic Activity & Unemployment

 

United Kingdom – Recession Recoveries

 

 

Commodities

China Coal – stocks at major coastal utilities

 

China Coal – Loss making domestic production

 

China Coal – Thermal Index

.

Australian coal price & China coal imports

 

China Iron Ore Imports

 

Global Iron Ore Exports

 

China Steel – Domestic use, production and capacity

 

China Steel – Production & Exports

 

Steel Production by Region

 

Global Copper Market Balance forecast

 

Copper – Reserves of top 10 mines

 

Global Wheat Production

 

Lithium Prices

 

Official Golds Reserves

 

Oil Gas and Coal – 2018 Prices

 

Global Crude – inventory balance

 

Australian Aluminium ore exports by value

 

Ukraine Wheat destinations 

 

Gold – supply and price

 

 

Capital Markets

 

China and United States bonds

 

Various global currencies against USD – PPP Big Mac Under/Over Valuation

 

DM Manufacturing PMI (cf US10 Yr Yields)

 

EM v DM total Liquidity

 

High Yield Implied Defaults

 

Quantitative Tightening

 

Share buybacks by S&P 500 companies

 

Technology Weight in equities

 

Eurozone – TLTRO II 

 

US – Beyond QE

 

United States – Public Sector debt securities

 

The UST Curve

 

 

Global Macro

 

Financing needs – various developed world

 

Employment – population ratio – selected nations

 

Over 55 Employment Population Ratio – Selected Nations

 

Bachelor’s degree S&E fields by region

 

Social Program Investment and child Poverty

 

China and US GDP tracking

 

Selected nations – corporate debt

 

Debt to GDP – selected nations

 

GMO labeling requirements

 

Homicide rates – United States and EU

 

The 0.01%, the 9.9% and the 90% in the United States – economic take

 

Old Age Support Ratio – Selected nations

 

GDP on R&D – selected nations

 

Residential Real Estate – Sweden Canada Australia Norway & New Zealand

 

US advertising revenues by media

 

World Trade Volumes

 

 

…and furthermore…

The way the world will look in 250 million years time….

 

Happiness Rankings…..

 

The cost of a night out…..

 

The lifetimes earning impact on mothers

 

The Starbucks Latte Index

 

Does anyone actually believe this anymore?…..

 

Compo for childhood emotional scars

 

Some come back from rejection….

 

Comments

  1. Incredible graphs!

    Toronto house price graph is beautiful. Hope there is one for SYD in the same format.

    I am struggling to understand the gas price graph (“Price of new gas for southern states”). Henry Hub gas has been less than U$3 per mmbtu for the past 12 months or more. No idea what the price is in opaque Australia.

    There was an incredible spike in the price of Henry Hub gas between 26 Dec 2017 and 2 Feb 2018:

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/natural_gas_spot_price

  2. Yes the RBA has never commenced a tightening cycle whilst house prices are falling but it sure has commenced a loosening cycle whilst they’ve been rising astronomically. #looseningbiasthanksglennyouincompetentsackofshit

    • Great observation Jimbo. You could add ‘deliberately and knowingly’
      Also anyone thinking that the future is necessarily going to look like the past is a moron.

  3. Implied high yield default rate at at highest since just before 2008 collapse. A meaningful take away really as our own subprime lending is facing similar implied default and will result in sovereign downgrades and serial feedback loops that will be disastrous for our little one trick pony economy.

    • serial feedback loop
      Sorry mate. Your thinking is way too complex for MB commentariat.

  4. These would make Kohler blush Gunna. Well done.

    That 250 million year world map is a cracker. Shanghai and Sydney are eerily close (about 1200nm compared to the current 4500nm). At least the million year old Grey Nomads have a few more destination options with that connected land mass.

  5. Paddy Finucane

    Superb charts G,

    But there are so many it seems to affect how long this post takes to load on my phone. At home its OK,

    The one on the US needing 25% of its GDP to support its debt is a freakout. I think there has to be a massive debt handoff somehow. Like Nixon, like Roosevelt. Not just the US, but the world needs a debt reset which wipes out a lot of the debt.

    The electricity charts impress too. Its dirt cheap here (St Petersburg). I make a point of not paying for months and moths to see if they ever cut off – they never do.

    • Super Phoenix

      Yes, that was a dubious one, for a number of reasons. The language is the most obvious one but also the letter is supposedly dated mid 1907, two years after the miracle year, for which the special relativity is only a part of the “miracle”.

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    As they say in murican companies …………”.If you can’t measure it ( chart it ) you can’t manage it” …………………..yeh but no but !

    ……The largest US companies over time (yellow denotes descendant of the 1920s)……………..love that chart ..

    …..remember visiting Rochester, New York some time in the 80’s and seeing acres of red brick factories belonging to Eastman Kodak …….( think I flew PanAm to get there ) ………………a life lesson in why it’s not always a good idea to buy and hold ………….

    Great stuff Gunna and MB ..a nice adddition .

  7. Super Phoenix

    Thanks, Gunna.

    Interesting that the happiness index and the rate of homicide do not seem to negatively correlate very much.

    The Bachelor’s degree S&E fields is also interesting. China started mass-producing S&E graduates since circa 2002. It is still less than half of that of Japan, per capita, though. At this rate, it will take anther 15-20 years to catch up.

  8. Great charts Gunna
    A chart of Australia’s Trade Balance should NEVER be published with out a Current Account chart to go with it. The Trade Balance is the great con sprouted by every charlatan moronic (TREACHEROUS) idiot to justify the extraordinary stupidity of Treasury, RBA, Universities (especially Newcastle) and Banks.

    • I wonder what the rest of them think the end game is? The U.S. just continues to go into more and and more and more debt forever? The U.S. just goes on shedding jobs and industry forever? How does that work out?
      Just as importantly why is there not a single journalist anywhere who asks that question?

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        My view Flawse (as a man who has spent a cold but sunny afternoon in the garden trying to level off an are I am going to pave) is that journalism as it was once known is essentially dead.

        It exists in pockets here and there, sprouting up in moments like desert flowers after rain, but every bit as transient. The big old media proprietors are essentially in a doom loop – their revenues being eternally cruelled by Google and Facebook, the public likely inclined to working around paywalls and used to ‘free’ information. The models of the past which made for cheap but commercially viable information provision are essentially dead.

        From there I would observe they are dependent on revenue for their models – they will publish or broadcast virtually anything that an advertiser will want them to do, and their sensitivity to their reliance will make them self censor their own so as not to head off bucks which they think they may glean.

        From there we have various forms of State media. Theres the BBC and the ABC, a load of forms ranging from France 24 to Deutsche Welle and extending all the way out to China TV or RT.com. They tend to operate on an axis of having to clearly uphold a state line through to having leeway to report what they like as long as it doesnt transgress a state line – thats after they get their funding. The vested capital interest which owns the commercial media and gets such ready service for its message from the media it controls knows that the surest way to curtail state media is to overtly make a political issue out of the state controlled ‘competitor’

        Beyond that we have the uber new media – google facebook and the like. It isnt media in the sense of the old media. It isnt interested in belief, it is only interested in harvesting others beliefs and the messages and communications any such belief engenders, and for this very reason it doesnt consider issues like veracity at all.

        The old media can no longer really afford the cultivation of journalists who would learn to ask the right questions at the right time to the right people. The state media will always be wary of any propensity of such journalists asking the right question to the right person at a politically inopportune time for that organisation (vis the interests of the state or the interests of the organisation and the political pressure it is under vis its funding), and the new media simply assumes that it provides a platform for all to get their words and videos out – and that if knowlegeable question askers arent doing so it isnt new medias fault.

        ……and those politicians – well they want every word of coverage as the unravelling of the liberal-capital-consensus reaches inexorably towards its denouement – to be either totally on song, or something of a palliative pillow.

        My thoughts before dinner.

      • Thanks Gunna for a great reply. After working around this ranch for the weekend I’m a bit past detailed replies so I really appreciate your effort! I’d go a bit further back into the education process of the modern western education system. Again I’m a bit past entering into a detailed discourse! 🙁

      • Jake GittesMEMBER

        The revenue side of the answer is in the chart on this page titled: US advertising revenues by media. The digital spend is being taken by Google and FB. That shift has taken longer than was forecast in about 2000 but it’s destruction to the old media has been substantial. Similarly there are large numbers of digital content creation jobs and many data analysts.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        @Jake Gittes

        That is it exactly. Indeed that is why I included that very chart when I spotted it. It is so starkly obvious from that chart it is sitting in your lap and tossing marshmallows down your gullet.

        The rivers of gold which once paved the way for all media to invest in public interest has gone to the uber crowd – which does not in any way invest in public interest in any way.

        The reason commercial operations once invested in public demand for it is because there was a world where people wanted to know more, where they, or their parents or grandparents had been to traumatic war with and where they knew they needed to know something, and they needed to keep an eye one what was happening out of sight, and over time some commercial outfits showed them they could do it and get it right, and they kept thinking they needed to know.

        Now, they dont think they need to know any more because the only real news coming from somewhere else is negative news for them, or their own leaders bullshitting them, and if they are going to absorb bullshit then porn, cooking shows and cheap emotionalism and sport is the way to go.

      • Jake GittesMEMBER

        @ Gunna. maybe the ‘mission’ of information is a bit Reithian in scope. Agreed that the post war view to encourage an informed public, education etc. Part of the improvement after years of turmoil.
        Since the 1980s with liberalized markets apparently doing it better, the media has a tougher time with fragmentation in mid and small markets. When the web entered the mix media owners saw it as a brand channel extension and believed very naively that display would hold up when total audience numbers rose and they still had the classified market. Foresight on search and low barriers to entry never loomed in respect of loss of classifieds. It shows how ignorant media companies were and also the hubris they had.

        The situation is not helped by legislators who are slow to see market imbalances and deal with them ( Uber AirBnB) or obliged to serve the lobbying power of the digital brands. Alphabet is/was the biggest tech lobbyist in DC.

        The Facebook data issues which are on going and other faults in this digital utopia will likely see a progressive redress of the power shift.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      You vill buy our highly engineered German sh1t …..and you vill pay for it ven ve say so …………..OK …av you got that ?

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Yes …an American infant whose country is the customer of the world ……and whose salesmen don’t even get appointments any more ……..
        I think an infantile tantrum might be quite in order ……..he is not perfect …..but he is trying ….

      • Jake GittesMEMBER

        Maybe the caption for the pic is:
        Merkel: We’ve sent for take out but they can’t do your order.
        Trump: It’s Chuck E. Cheese or I’m gonna hold my breath until I die!

      • Okay JG you’ve got the answers and you know the relative merits of Merkel and Trump – perhaps you can explain the End Game to this dumb s..t? You know how does the U.S. ever come out of this if it has to just give all the rest of the indulgent p..cks everything they want. Where does the USD end up? Where does US industry end up? How does the US population deal with that ending? What will be the market for Germany and Canada at that stage? (There’s an obvious answer to that – it will also be the place that then holds world power))

      • Jake GittesMEMBER

        @ flawse very large questions. Either brave or crazy to attempt in a few words with so many factors. It depends on the timescale market events, and the incumbents in power, and their political culture. In that last respect Merkel and Trump are anathema to each other.

  9. – I want to contribute to this “Chart fest” as well.
    – “WOLFSTREET” brought a thread on topic of “Steel production in China”. One chart shows that chinese production of steel continued to grow in the last say 15 years and is now MUCH larger than steel production in other countries/regions around the world. (Perhaps MB can post those charst here as well ??)

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/01/who-dominates-the-steel-trade-that-trump-just-hit-with-tariffs/

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      27% isnt that bad for a first time outing.

      I reckon it will be back in one guise or another somewhere. The world has far too much debt to ever be repaid and at some point the uber set will want a reset. When they get their promotional machine in behind a prposal it’ll stand a better chance of getting up. In the meantime I tend to the view we could easily get a plethora of shorter term crypto style stores of wealth trying to fill in the credibility gap of contemporary currency

    • St JacquesMEMBER

      Not that surprising in such a well functioning country that also has a tendency to be slow in introducing big changes, ie, women’s suffrage. They like to think these these things through very thoroughly them Swiss. Still, it’s helped put the issue in to public spotlight, and as things slowly turn to custard, the issue will come to the fore again and again with increasing frequency.

    • PM wants to establish a non democratic administration of government issuance and then allow a return to the free banking period of the 1800s. All based on notions of EMH and QTM contra to all the historical data from that period. So on one had PM wants to lay claim to scientific methodology WRT money yet still cling to scientifically refuted EMH.

      As far as I can discern PM proponents advance the belief that this would compel banks to become investment entities for “productive” activities. Don’t know how that would work out considering how corporatism views society.

      https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/06/the-battle-for-money-has-begun.html