Outrageous predictions for 2018

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Via Saxo comes the Outrageous predictions for 2018:

  1. Fed loses independence as US Treasury takes charge Treasury enacts 2.5% yield cap after massive spike
  2. Bank of Japan loses control of its monetary policy USDJPY rises to 150 and then collapses to 100
  3. China issues CNY-denominated oil futures contract Petro-renminbi surges, USDCNY below 6.0
  4. Volatility spikes on sudden S&P 500 ‘flash crash’ S&P 500 drops 25% in spectacular plunge
  5. US voters push left in 2018 mid-terms, bonds spike US 30-year Treasury yields rip beyond 5%
  6. ‘Austro-Hungarians’ launch hostile EU takeover EURUSD to 1.00 after hitting new highs
  7. Investors flee Bitcoin as governments strike back Bitcoin @ $1,000
  8. South Africa resurgent after ‘African Spring’ ZAR gains 30% versus EM currencies
  9. Tencent topples Apple as market cap king Tencent shares gain 100%
  10. Women take the reins of corporate power Female CEOs at more than 60 Fortune 500 companies

My responses:

  1. Nope.
  2. Nope.
  3. Nope.
  4. Possible.
  5. Nope.
  6. Doubtful.
  7. Probable.
  8. Whatever.
  9. Meh.
  10. Bring it on.

Here’s 30 more to worry about from Deustche:

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Here’s five outrageous predictions of my own:

  • Iron ore hits $30 in H2.
  • RBA cuts rates twice in H2.
  • Aussie dollar hits 60 cents as yield spread to US breaches 100bps.
  • Australian property rebounds (briefly).
  • Malcolm Turnbull polls turns sharply as Labor’s China links sink Bill Shorten.
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.