The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, shows core support for the government is up three points in the past fortnight and is six points higher than when Tony Abbott faced a spill motion against his leadership six weeks ago…Based on preference flows from the 2013 election, the surge in the primary vote for the Coalition has lifted it within striking distance of Labor in two-party-preferred terms to 49 per cent compared with the opposition’s 51 per cent.
The Abbottalypse is working then. Or is it? From Roy Morgan:
ALP support increased to 56% (up 2.5%), still well clear of the L-NP 44% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, March 14/15 & 21/22, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,146 Australian electors aged 18+.
Primary support for the ALP increased to 40% (up 2%) now ahead of the L-NP 38% (down 1%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 11% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 1.5% (down 0.5%) while Independents/ Others were 9.5% (unchanged.
Support for PUP is highest in Western Australia (4%) and Tasmania (4%) with little support in all other States following the defection of Queensland PUP Senator Glenn Lazarus last week to become an Independent Senator alongside his former party colleague Jacqui Lambie, now an Independent Tasmanian Senator.
Polls schmolls I guess, though if we stuck with trend the Morgan poll remains damning. Here my own favourite chart of first term leaders:
Looks like everyone suffers some 20 month blues but some more than others!
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
