US house prices boom

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ScreenHunter_65 Jan. 18 08.30

By Leith van Onselen

The Case-Shiller 20-city house price index for April 2013 was released over night, which revealed an ongoing recovery in US house prices, with prices lifting by a seasonally-adjusted 1.6% over the month, 4.9% over the quarter, and 12.0% over the year. It was the biggest yearly price gain since March 2006 (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_01 Jun. 26 09.16

In another strong signal for US house prices, both the University of Michigan and Conference Board consumer sentiment indices have turned-up which, given past correlations, suggests stronger house price growth ahead (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_02 Jun. 26 09.22

The surge in US home prices also appears to be spurring dwelling construction, with both dwelling starts and dwelling permits in an up-trend (see below charts).

ScreenHunter_03 Jun. 26 09.25
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However, both the house price and construction recoveries are off a very low base, with both still well below mid-2000s levels (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_05 Jun. 26 09.28
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.