DEEWR’s Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment (Indicator) has fallen for the fifth consecutive month in June 2013, as a result of substantial data revision and falls over the latest month in the ANZ Newspaper Job Ads series and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index. One more monthly fall in the Indicator would be required to confirm that employment is likely to grow at a rate below its long-term trend of 1.5 per cent per annum in around half a year’s time. Cyclical employment, in contrast, has risen for five consecutive months.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
