GDP preview

Friday, 31 August 2012

Find below Westpac’s take on next week’s June quarter GDP figure. At 0.8% it looks reasonable to me, though let me reiterate that guessing GDP is a fool’s errand. Still, the components look right.

It’s the following two quarters that are the ones to watch as consumption pulls back as carbon rebates unwind and net exports plunge.

Er 20120831 Bull Gdp Preview q 2

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.