Bulk strength or bulk trouble?

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David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. Different China Fanboy

    The strength in the iron ore price is also contradicted by some evidence of the Chinese running down port stocks from recent record highs


    Didn’t you previously say that rising stocks correlated with falling price …or something along those lines?

    If so, shouldn’t the falling stocks and rise prices be consistent with that position?

    FWIW when we last discussed this I invited people to overlay port stocks and prices …not much visual correlation.

      • Different China Fanboy

        I was trying to understand your linking of stocks and prices. Is “sigh” an indication of your inability to explain your position?

        Do I need to dig out your previous article where you commented on rising port stocks and falling prices and link it?

        • Different China Fanboy

          you can hit the trash button for his other replies as well ๐Ÿ™‚

          As the apparent editor today, is it not a reasonable question to note that his last article on this topic touted rising port stocks and falling prices yet this article says that falling port stocks contradict rising prices. The only contradiction I am seeing is in Mr Holes analysis.

      • Different China Fanboy

        Hey 3d1k since you are not doing a guest post can I talk to you “off air” about the iron ore conference. wildebeestz at gmail dot com (don’t forget the “z” on the end)

  2. quote ” flood related distortions of 2010″

    I think that you may have meant 2011.

    Sorry that’s not a criticism, but it should be edited.

    Otherwise a good informative post.

  3. FMG think bulk strength as they are 200M of a 500M spend. Personally, I think prices will fall, but not dramatically. The next year will be slow due to the transition of the old/new government I’ve been told.

  4. The miracle commodity has been performing well

    The miracle commodity indeed. It seems West Australians, and in particular, Gina and Twiggy, are God’s chosen people.

    Queenslanders are not so lucky. Correct me if I’m wrong, but both iron ore and metallurgical coal are essential for steel-making, and good quality metallurgical coal is in short supply globally … except in Queensland. Despite this, coking coal prices are falling and iron ore prices are creeping up.

    • Relax Lorax, it’s all a cycle. Isn’t your long-term outlook for the glorious commodity to plummet and coal to rocket?

      • That is every brokers assumption given iron ore is not scarce (just the infrastructure to move it) and good quality met coal seems rarer and India has none.