Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Reddit + - The many speed economy By Houses and Holes in Australian Economyat 4:35 pm on February 14, 2012 | 20 comments Roy Morgan has an interesting chart out this evening examining business confidence across industries. Presented without comment, the houses and holes confidence chart: Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Reddit + - YOU MAY ALSO BE INTERESTED INYouth labour market continues to worsenYesterday's ABS labour force release for JulyRecessionberg versus the global economyVia Domain: Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has vowedSydney facing water emergency as dams plummetIt's winter. The desalination plant is running"Worse, the China miracle might be over"Terry Mccrann goes there today: ...all economies Comments 3d1k February 14, 2012 at 6:27 pm Modest confidence across a range of sectors, finance a little optimistic given recent events? More than just manufacturing a little worried, construction a big concern imo. runalltheway February 14, 2012 at 6:38 pm Yeah, the confidence figures for finance and education are both a big surprise. I can only assume that this is the view from the top, not grunt-level. darklydrawlMEMBER February 14, 2012 at 7:50 pm heh, Spot on – my thoughts exactly… Velociraptor February 14, 2012 at 9:07 pm Retail employs 7 for every 1 miner. Booyah! 3d1k February 14, 2012 at 10:46 pm What? As in what has that got to do with confidence…also as you know from your earlier days, construction component is somewhat erroneously recorded. It still matters. Happy to see confidence in any sector, always hope it comes to fruition. Velociraptor February 14, 2012 at 10:59 pm Retail (discretionary) is the first domino to fall. From the late 80s and early 90s investment in the Pilbara was insane, far greater than now (Woodside AND Iron via Robe, HI and BHP) and didn’t prevent a recession nor double digit unemployment. Mining is meaningless to 97% of greater Australia. 3d1k February 14, 2012 at 11:04 pm If we both agree that the end of the credit era may be devastating – I’m with you. I well understand that resources punch above their weight in terms of comparative employment – there are other pluses. Ones which governments really like (not too mention mining companies). V, I know you know resources will play its role but is dwarfed by the magnitude of the unwinding about to take place. Chinafanboy. flawse February 15, 2012 at 1:09 am Mining is meaningless to 97% of greater Australia. I doubt 97% of Australians agree with you! If you are saying that mining is not beneficial, in any way, to 97% of Australians you don’t understand this economy at all. Velociraptor February 15, 2012 at 10:56 am Really? Please explain how a sector that employs 1.8% of the workforce benefits Bob Beerslab in Kenmore who works as a manager at Coles and his wife who works for QLD health as a nursing assistant. Please explain how the building and commissioning of Woodside’s gas ‘system’ (biggest infrastructure investment in the world at that time) in the Pilbara and about 9 Irons Iron being built prevented unemployment jumping from <6% to almost 11% and a house price slide. Keep believing the spin. JPKMEMBER February 14, 2012 at 10:17 pm Senator Cameron got macrobated: “I don’t like it because it doesn’t seem to me as a new economy. It’s a mining boom, in fact it’s a mining bubble,” http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-14/twt-cameron-breaks-ranks-on-27new-economy27/3829490 JPKMEMBER February 14, 2012 at 10:33 pm I missed one important bit from his interview: “I’m sick and tired of hearing economists tell us that you’ve got to crowd out good jobs in manufacturing, crowd out good jobs in the finance sector, crowd out high-paid, high-skilled jobs because we’ve got a mining bubble.” 3d1k February 14, 2012 at 10:41 pm I cannot bear to hear from Cameron. On his watch, with his eye diverted to Labour preselection, securing his personal future – he oversaw a period of significant offshoring. Even the GreenLeftWeekly was calling Cameron’s card. Seriously, the bloke is a joke. Yeah, OK now. Senator. Senator. Has somewhat remarkably from his comfortable pensioned privileged tower ‘rediscovered’ the common man. Don’t buy it. Cameron is an embarrassment. 3d1k February 14, 2012 at 10:56 pm The ‘crowding out’: Actually I have never heard any relevant economist say any such thing. Evidence please. flawse February 15, 2012 at 1:13 am Mining is not the problem. If it were we would have been running a Current Account Surplus. Capital flows are the problem. Everyone needs to get this really clear somehow. tonyddMEMBER February 15, 2012 at 5:19 am Too true flawse we have discussed this topic as a side issue earlier but it is underated as the soft underbelly of the economy and Australia’s potential prosperity. Why? Because it requires a political solution. Unlikely while parliament is the prefered destination of so many self-seeking invertebrates. bonds007MEMBER February 15, 2012 at 8:20 am First post, love the site and all the discussion. My understanding (and I’ll admit it’s limited) is that a lot of the problems in retail, manufacturing, education, etc. stem from the appreciation of the $A, which is predominantly a result of mining exports. Is this incorrect? I’d appreciate some more detail around ‘capital flows’ being the problem. Velociraptor February 15, 2012 at 11:01 am The high AUD has little to do with mining. Consider the times its been near 50c and up to 98c and down to 60c. Did mining stop? Mining is not a problem in any way shape or form. Its part of the primary sector. The shrinking secondary and expanding tertiary sectors are the problems. Matthias February 14, 2012 at 11:01 pm Runalltheway – good point. I’ve worked at a senior level just below management in a couple of big companies and it’s true that management often talk optimistically even when they have no right to do so. Sometimes they really are deluded, other times they know the truth but bullshit. All part of the game 3d1k February 14, 2012 at 11:12 pm Now that really does sound like management at many levels of Australian industry, resources excepted of course. runalltheway February 15, 2012 at 6:56 am Matthias, Yes, that’s unfortunately par for the course. Speaking as one of the finance grunts that may be in-line for ‘adjustment’, I have a lot more respect for the straight shooters. However, I would have thought that senior people would be smart enough to massage their message in this type of industry wide survey – negative results do increase the chance of a juicy government hand out.