Leading indicators below trend

My least favourite indicator, the Westpac/Melbourne Institute Leading Indicator, is pointing sideways this month at weakish growth:

The annualised growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which  indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was  2.3% in December 2011, below its long term trend of 3.0%. The annualised growth  rate of the Coincident Index which gives a pulse of current activity was 2.5%, also  below its long term trend of 3.0%.

Sounds about right. But that’s what you expect. It’s where we’ve been, which is what this set indicators seems to measure better than the future. Still, here it is for those who think differently:

PressReleaseLI20120222

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