February 16 links: A convergence of powers

Markets:

Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Germany 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year

United States

Europe
  • Peugeot to get ECB loans? Zero Hedge Now this is looking like GFC2.0.
  • Recession. Bloomberg
  • Spreads rising again. Bespoke
  • Oil up on Iran export ban. FT Perpetual recession
China
  • China’s endless landing. Alphaville You read it here first

Local:

  • Resource nationalism. The Economist RSPT goes global
  • Dollar dynamics. WSJ
  • More bank rises to come. SMH
  • Mining boom is over. The Cupboard Gold, ore, copper down 30% in 3 years. Plausible

Comments

  1. Mining boom over – bold prediction of 30% down in three years. Some minerals, probably, and iron ore possibly. Rare Earth would tank if China changed it’s policies to release more. Gold down 30% is very brave, but that would happen if China stopped buying, but why is China expanding it’s ownership of foreign mines???

    I predict that you can’t predict!

    • Of course it’s bold but quite sensible. Supply response alone should deliver these outcomes. The copper “shortage” is a myth. Ore is going to be coming out of Africa faster than nineteenth century ivory by then.

      Gold is an interesting one and obviously hinges on a US recovery and dollar rally. Possible by then, the US is slowly recovering.

      Swing factor for us will be LNG. WIll the coming global glut and US exports knock us off our perch.

      Nah, prediction looks sound to me…

      • Yeah, the price of gold is anyone’s guess, but if the US recovery is real, the money printing will stop, and I reckon its the money printing more than anything that’s been driving the price upwards. Offsetting that could be Europe going down the sinkhole.

        Ore is only heading south (sorry MineBots) because of the killer one-two punch of slowing demand from China, and new supply coming online.

        The LNG glut is very real, and Australia is a high-cost producer. We are very exposed here, as are the massive investments going into LNG.

        But I reckon we’re on safe ground with coal. Sadly, the world seems to have an insatiable appetite for our black death, and no-one produces better quality death than Australia.

        Put your money on Clive.

      • definately the money printing and USD dillution pushing gold up in recent years. money printing looks to have stopped. but if you do have a genuine US recovery in place all that money that has been printed will become a highly inflationary force as money velocity picks up and you could see gold have another run. not going to happen yet something to think about for later.

      • All about the dollar. Whatever settings you foresee, if the USD appreciates gold is done. If it doesn’t gold is good. Even in recovery I can’t see the Fed letting the dollar off the floor. They know its all about stealing demand now even if we don’t.

      • but we need to accept that this is all down to mass psychosis because money aggregates have grown at a pretty much consistent rate since the mid 90s and are growing faster in Australia. Fed actions have had virtually no impact on this — which is one of the reasons the Fed is impotent.

        So another thing that could bring gold down then is if, on mass, people actually looked at the data objectively rather than through the lense of a belief system.

      • agree with almost all of that.

        ore will be coming out of the pilbara at greater rates. doubt africa will be delivery monster volumes by then but who knows. in any case 3 years is the scenario the miners themselves seem to be using.

        copper is a joke.

        all of which makes me wonder why such a prediction is deemed to be bold. I would have thought it was the overwhelming consensus view.

      • Whoa Towelie! Any more posts like that and you’ll get reprogrammed. A few major bugs there. Looks like RineSoft has some work to do!

      • Ore has been pouring out of the Pilbara at higher volumes and rates for 4 decades, how many recessions with double digit unemployment have we had since then?