Analyst looks at foot, sees shoe

From a Chris Zappone report titled “Leadership battle damaging says analyst” at the SMH:

City Index FX strategist Kara Ordway said the leadership battle is not good for the nation’s investment profile.

“What investors want is certainty,” she said. “What the situation is creating at the moment is shaky ground to where businesses are uncertain of what economic policies will be in the future.”

The Aussie dollar, too, which has become the darling of global investors since the financial crisis, could suffer if the lingering uncertainty doesn’t end, said Ms Ordway.

The dollar most recently lifted to $US1.073, from $US1.068 yesterday, helped by improving economic data from Europe overnight.

Seems to me what investors want is cliches. Leadership contest of two halves, anyone? The media seems to be really bored without a European crisis to follow.

Comments

  1. The Aussie dollar, too, which has become the darling of global investors since the financial crisis, could suffer if the lingering uncertainty doesn’t end, said Ms Ordway.

    Oh please, really? Lets hope Kevin keeps his campaign going all through 2012 and 2013 then. Perhaps that’s what he meant by helping Australian manufacturing?!

  2. It’s all Switzer (last night or Wednesday? been sick and brain is not working) seemed to want to talk about (well, that and his usual RBA bashing), and the political uncertainty was blamed for holding the ASX 200 back, when compared to their overseas counterparts, over the last few years. Switzer always finds an excuse when markets are not bullish.

    Most guests, however, seemed uncomfortable talking about it – particularly the Virgin CEO, who gave an excellent interview (despite the interviewer).

    And to digress further, it seems that Shane Oliver is also in the long stagnation / slow melt Australia housing camp.

  3. My comment from BS also applies here.

    “I keep hearing all the talk about how jittery consumers are putting the economy on hold due to the leadership uncertainty, but is that really the case?

    It certainly didn’t make me jittery when Howard and Costello were fighting it out and the Gillard/Rudd battle doesn’t have the slightest effect on me either. I think it’s our massive private debt levels that are far more responsible for our stagnating economy.”

    • AB; indeed, I think it’s more of a convenient excuse for why the markets are not performing as some expected.

      The massive private debt levels are there for all to see, just most don’t want to see it. For example, Shane Oliver brought it up (household debt), but Switzer didn’t seem to want to talk about it is a factor. Seems political unstability is a much more popular topic these days.

    • I can only speak for myself but on Wednesday I was about to buy a house, a new car and flat screen 50″ TV but once Rudd resigned I put it all on hold and have been trembling in my lounge room since. So much leadership uncertainty …too scared to leave the house.

  4. Seems perfectly reasonable that Australia’s public are demonstraing the truth of neo-classical behaviour such as EMH where they have perfect vision of all variables and factor them before making any decision with at least a 20 year horizon.
    Instead of lampooning this, you should be pleased that such foresight is being exercised by the good and rational people of this country.

  5. Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

    My favourite analyst quote is the answer to the inevitable question by a talking head – who says: where do you see the market in the near future?

    “We expect a lot of up and down movement in the days ahead.”

    The answer is of course correct…but what gets me is the talking head hearing it never laughs simply nods their head sagely as if much wisdom has been imparted…

  6. Chris Zappone is a disgrace as a Business journalist, only fit for getting fact-free quotes from random, self-styled “experts”.

  7. I hope that the Labor keep fighting one another for the rest of their term in office. This should leave them with little time to screw up the economy.

  8. GunnamattaMEMBER

    This is the way of things gents.

    Basically most proprietors want something which generates clicks, not something which is informed for people who know anything about the subject matter. The latter is very expensive, and carries significantly greater risk as a business model.

    Basically you can reheat utter garbage for a posse of dullards and get a better management response than slaving away doing research, and getting together a coherent stream of thought.

    I manage/edit a business/economics website coming out of Eastern Europe and I can tell you that basically no investors/owners are remotely interested in ‘real’ business journalism. They just want clicks and the capacity to slip something in at any point they choose.

    I know nothing about Zappone. Either he is a specious dullard who knows little about what he writes, or a man of brains who has learned to play the game – go along with the vested interests who pay, and dont challenge the masses, and their 10 watt thinking capacities, with high falutin notions and abstract concepts.