November 9 links: Berlusconi goes

Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Germany 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year
  • US job openings at 3 year high. Calculated Risk
  • Berlusconi goes. FT
  • No money printing for Europe. Bloomberg
  • Europe threat to Australia. The Age
  • Fears grow over European contagion. FT
  • China’s export growth slows. Caixin
  • China’s property prices falling. WSJ
  • No hard landing. Alphaville, Naked Capitalism
  • Don’t panic on China. Michael Pettis
  • Asian credit crunch. FT
  • Department store sales in freefall. SMH
  • MacBank CDS rocket. The Oz
  • Coal miners can’t compete. The Oz That’s a bit much isn’t it? $4.5 billion in exports in Sep
  • Aluminium sector squeeze. Reuters This is more fair dinkum
  • China ore inventory climbs. China Daily
  • Gittins returns on a euphoric wave of complacency.
David Llewellyn-Smith


  1. At last China news that is a little less focussed on the negative in the form of the Alphaville and NakedCap articles.

    I would add to these the Bill Mitchell essay mentioned in Naked Cap:
    and Bill’s own reference to:

    Both offer a refreshing view of the China story – an alternate to the gloomish groupthink that has taken hold. Wonder if Pettis has read them? Perfect day to read Mitchell in light of the Chinese economic data due today

    BTW the China ore inventory remains within range, fluctuations entirely normal.

    • I can name the number of prominent China bears at large on one hand.

      On China ore inventories the lack of fluctuation is that point, given they’re supposedly in the midst a dramatic inventory cycle.

      • Chanos, Roubini, Pettis, Llewellyn-Smith… And increasingly almost every economics article in MSM of late. The bears are out of hibernation.

        • As you know, I am not a China bear at all long term so please qualify it if you must categorise me that way.

          So, in your view, three men qualify as raging ‘group think’. Me thinkest thou protest too much.

          • Not ‘raging’ groupthink, ‘gloomish’ groupthink.

            Yes, those I mentioned (by no means a finite list, rather a quick roundup of usual suspects) but also the tenor of many of the comments here at MB. Bill Mitchell’s articles offer an alternate view.

          • I included you for levity! I am aware you say you are not a China bear long term but is it fair to say you are one in the near-to-medium term?

    • Mining/China Fanbot, you do realise that the following applies to any country that issues its own currency:
      “The Chinese government is the currency issuer and they demonstrated during the early stages of the crisis that they know exactly what they are doing with respect to using that monetary supremacy to maintain growth as one component of spending collapses.”
      So do you agree that the same principle can be applied to Australia to infer that Aussie housing bubble/Credit binge and its attendent “Wealth effect” can go on forever?
      (Hypocricy alert)

      • There are very big differences between the Chinese economy and ours that mean the Chinese Govt can follow the course it has in the past few years.

        Note also Mitchell is wrong about the availability of labour in China. The future is not the same as the past.

        • There are very big differences between the Chinese economy and ours
          Would you care to elaborate on that?
          (Or isn’t that not included in your Bot algorithm?)

          • Righto!!! You slanderous half-wit. I’ve told you before what I do.

            Here is my business
            Outdoor Connection

            You can send me mail if you want to and get a reply!!!!

            We import and distribute family camping gear to independent family owned stores…no corporates.

          • Why is it you can’t think…no brain???

            China runs a CAS and has massive reserves. Therefore it can in fact ‘print’ its own currency without causing major problems in its external account.
            Allied to this is a very high propensity to save.
            Does Aus have either of these characteristics?

          • Lost my long-winded response.
            Anyway, here is the essence: CAS & CAD, Western Credit bubble and Eastern Savings glut – THEY ARE TWO SIDES OF THE SAME COIN.
            PS: Oops..Mistook your previous response to that from MiningBot, hence the reference to the Bot Algo.

          • I AM aware that the two things are related.
            HOWEVER to suggest that a chronic CAD requires the same policies as a chronic CAS is a piece of stupidity only Krugman, Bill Barnacle and a myriad of other morons can indulge in.

  2. Its not just Gittins! that’s out cheer-leading for the resources sector today The Smirk is at it as well!

    Some of the dimmer lights in the government have suggested that putting the handbrake on mining will help other industries – such as manufacturing – by lowering the value of the dollar. I suppose if Australia really crunched its principal export industry and ballooned out its trade deficit and rocked confidence in the business climate, the exchange rate would fall. We could deliberately impoverish ourselves as a devious strategy to help ourselves.

    • HnH rips this amazing piece of sophistry and revisionism apart in the most recent post Lorax.

      Costello will likely go down as one of the worst economic managers in our history. The fragility he built into the system is terrifying.

      The parallel with the US conservatives is amazing too – as HnH points out, it was under the free wheeling socialist Clinton that the US balanced its books, whereas GWB destroyed the US economy through his fiscal profilgateness, fighting two (or more) wars and cutting taxes for the 1%

      I’m no Democrat or Labour supporter (by far…), but the evidence is overwhelming.

      Conservative parties are sh#t at econ management. I’m more worried about Abbott and Hockey than Gillard and Swan.

      I know, hard to believe, but there you go…..

  3. Agree with all Prince. The Costello/Howard prudent management bit really got my goat.
    The shallow shouting match coming from Hockey and Abbott sure doesn’t inspire any confidence that they have a clue!

  4. Hells Bells…when are Aus politicians and Reps going to stop telling Europe to solve their crisis????? Do we really think they are not desperately searching for an answer?
    In addition, we get by by selling assets as fast as we can. Then we lecture less fortunate countries on their bad management …Cheesh!!!!