Today’s chart effectively sums up the Euro crisis in a fairly easy to understand flowchart and comes from Pictet’s Christophe Donay (via ZeroHedge):
Although it doesn’t provide a probable timeline, the chart is illustrative, if a little optimistic in my opinion of the weighted probabilities. A fiscal union – the logical choice, but a cultural and geo-political backward step – is probably less than 10% given the aversion of the non-Germanic States fear of a centralised, German-dominated Europe.
Or as Nigel Farage (reluctant UK member of the European Parliament) put it recently (VIDEO):
“We are now living in a German dominated Europe. Something the European project was actually supposed to stop.”
The full presentation of their 2012 Investment Strategy is available and to say the least, has some interesting observations and conclusions. Timely given the breakdown of risk markets overnight.