ANZ job ads down again

ANZ job ads were down again in October by 0.7% in, the sixth fall in seven months. Annual growth in total job advertisements slowed to 1.8% y/y. Here are the charts:

And here is a chart of job ads (inverted) against the unemployment rate:

And further details from the release:

Here’s what ANZ has to say:

ANZ Head of Australian Economics and Property Research Ivan Colhoun said:

• The number of job advertisements continued to moderately decline in October falling 0.7% m/m.

• The weakness in both internet and newspaper advertising suggests below trend growth in employment and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate over coming months. However, the decline in job advertising to date is very moderate, more like the slowing in 1996-97 than the collapse in advertising witnessed during the GFC in 2008-09.

• Trends in job advertising are again beginning to reflect the emergence of a more noticeable geographic split to Australian economic growth. The trend in job advertising remains positive for Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland (the states with the greatest exposure to mining). At the same time, advertising is continuing to slow in the more populous states of NSW and Victoria.

• ANZ forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 5.5% by mid-2012. This forecast is consistent with employment growth of less than 5,000 jobs per month. However, with the mining investment boom building through 2012 and with the subsequent flow on effects on the Australian economy, ANZ does not foresee a more substantial increase in the unemployment rate.

• In line with a rising unemployment rate, wages and underlying inflation pressures are likely to have begun moderating. As such ANZ believes there is continued scope to ease interest rates towards a ‘neutral’ stance from the ‘more neutral’ stance at present. ANZ expects a further 25bp cut in the cash rate in February 2012.

• The ABS publishes October labour force data on Thursday. ANZ expects total employment to have fallen by 5,000 and the unemployment rate to have risen to 5.3%.

Not much doubt now, unemployment is going higher.

111107 – ANZ Job Ads October 2011

Comments

  1. Well I think that report would be pretty much as expected and likely not as bad as some Chicken Little’s may have anticipated.

    Yet!

  2. …and Europe or China haven’t blown up yet. It’s quite scary how Australia’s and other nations’ downturns are looking like synchronized swimming performance where everyone falls at the same time.

    If I was to estimate when China’s or Australia’s property bubbles will be clearly deflating and causing panic, or Europe not being able to solve their problems (through Italy or a failure of of funding the EFSF), I’d guess in the next 6 months, maybe 12.

  3. of course I would like to know how they ensure that they don’t double, triple or more over count the job ads? If you ever look on seek you’ll find that the same job is often advertised by at least 2 head hunters with slightly different wording (sometimes identical). Since the client is hardly ever revealed I wonder how they know its 4 ads or only 1

    • SoulNigga Chips

      Sometimes the same advert appears two or three times from the same advertiser. Not sure how that is counted too. This is still one of the best gauges of employment however. NewStart allowance is only available for people with less than $3000 to their name. I was unemployed earlier this year for 4months and didn’t show up on any statistics as there was no point in registering as unemployed with my savings… There are a lot of white collar workers out there in the same boat at the moment.

      • Tell me about it. I personally know about a dozen recently unemployed white collar workers who don’t qualify for anything. Looks like this time around it’s the white collar workers instead of the blue collar ones getting hit hardest by job losses.

        I just found out today that I’m NOT one of the 400 redundancies going around at work. Sadly I can’t say the same for some close colleagues 🙁

      • That is a lot of redundancies! Good for you that you are not being cut, not so good for your colleagues 🙁

      • yes, it was precisely the same for me too. Neither my wife nor I would be elligble for unemployment benefits despite me being unemployed for over 6 months (we just came back to Australia from OS where we lost jobs [me first then her] and I would need to jump through enormous hoops and provide heaps of details to probably qualify for nothing). Essentially if you’re not in debt, defaulting on stuff and in poverty then you don’t count.

    • Thursday. I would expect a negative number but this country just keeps on chugging along recently and with a bit of luck with the large statistical error, a positive wouldn’t surprise me at all.