ANZ job ads were down again in October by 0.7% in, the sixth fall in seven months. Annual growth in total job advertisements slowed to 1.8% y/y. Here are the charts:
And here is a chart of job ads (inverted) against the unemployment rate:
And further details from the release:
Here’s what ANZ has to say:
ANZ Head of Australian Economics and Property Research Ivan Colhoun said:
• The number of job advertisements continued to moderately decline in October falling 0.7% m/m.
• The weakness in both internet and newspaper advertising suggests below trend growth in employment and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate over coming months. However, the decline in job advertising to date is very moderate, more like the slowing in 1996-97 than the collapse in advertising witnessed during the GFC in 2008-09.
• Trends in job advertising are again beginning to reflect the emergence of a more noticeable geographic split to Australian economic growth. The trend in job advertising remains positive for Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland (the states with the greatest exposure to mining). At the same time, advertising is continuing to slow in the more populous states of NSW and Victoria.
• ANZ forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 5.5% by mid-2012. This forecast is consistent with employment growth of less than 5,000 jobs per month. However, with the mining investment boom building through 2012 and with the subsequent flow on effects on the Australian economy, ANZ does not foresee a more substantial increase in the unemployment rate.
• In line with a rising unemployment rate, wages and underlying inflation pressures are likely to have begun moderating. As such ANZ believes there is continued scope to ease interest rates towards a ‘neutral’ stance from the ‘more neutral’ stance at present. ANZ expects a further 25bp cut in the cash rate in February 2012.
• The ABS publishes October labour force data on Thursday. ANZ expects total employment to have fallen by 5,000 and the unemployment rate to have risen to 5.3%.
Not much doubt now, unemployment is going higher.