Residex sees soft August for housing

AFG may have seen a jump in their data for August but if Residex is anything to go by then, as our astute readers mentioned, it may have only been a seasonal mirage. Below is the Residex’s update for August and it looks to be a continuation of the downwards trend:

Houses

Area Median Value Growth Rent Sales Predictions
10 Years % p.a.
Year Ending Aug 2011
Last Quarter
Last Month
Rate Mnth
Ending Aug 2011
Month Ending Aug 2011
Year Change
Year Ending Aug 2011
Year Change
5 year %p.a.
ACT $531,000 9.37% -0.47% -1.25% -0.53% 4.57% $465 1.09% 5,464 8.18% 1.21%
Adelaide $397,500 8.91% -2.61% -1.25% -0.32% 4.33% $330 3.13% 19,144 0.04% 0.13%
SA Country $258,500 8.83% -1.09% -3.22% -1.26% 5.04% $250 4.17% 6,440 -5.79% -0.25%
Brisbane $432,500 9.52% -6.71% -2.14% -0.97% 4.65% $385 1.32% 31,785 -15.99% 5.34%
QLD Country $368,000 9.17% -3.44% -0.78% -0.37% 5.25% $370 2.78% 33,045 -7.55% 5.08%
Darwin $496,000 10.67% -5.01% -1.85% -0.62% 5.47% $520 -3.70% 1,138 -26.25% 6.17%
Northern Territory $471,500 10.92% -2.06% -0.79% 0.31% 5.87% $530 1.92% 1,703 -22.59% 5.27%
Hobart $375,500 10.96% -1.91% 0.39% -0.95% 4.80% $345 1.47% 1,846 -13.86% 6.51%
TAS Country $274,500 10.86% -0.06% 0.96% 2.47% 4.95% $260 4.00% 3,556 -11.34% 6.21%
Melbourne $582,000 8.66% -1.97% -3.06% -0.74% 3.41% $380 1.33% 49,364 9.18% 2.32%
VIC Country $327,500 8.67% 3.11% -1.39% -0.13% 4.94% $310 6.90% 42,574 2.79% 1.34%
Perth $471,500 10.10% -4.58% -2.79% 0.04% 4.43% $400 8.11% 21,876 -10.06% 7.84%
WA Country $351,500 10.01% 0.41% -1.72% -1.77% 4.90% $330 3.13% 5,198 -9.44% 7.39%
Sydney $675,000 6.06% 2.53% 1.15% 0.07% 4.10% $530 6.00% 36,076 -17.16% 5.63%
NSW Country $340,000 7.08% -0.72% -0.68% -0.10% 5.37% $350 9.38% 35,308 -17.27% 5.28%
Australia $430,500 8.63% -3.13% -2.48% -1.18% 4.54% $375 4.17% 293,379 -7.13% 4.46%

Units

Area Median Value Growth Rent Sales Predictions
10 Years % p.a.
Year Ending Aug 2011
Last Quarter
Last Month
Rate Mth
Ending Aug 2011
Month Ending Aug 2011
Year Change
Year Ending Aug 2011
Year Change
5 year %p.a.
ACT $438,000 10.24% 4.16% 2.80% 2.18% 5.01% $420 2.44% 3,534 13.16% -0.89%
Adelaide $308,000 10.04% -0.64% -2.90% -0.04% 4.92% $290 7.41% 4,712 -6.86% -0.62%
SA Country $232,000 8.01% 2.28% -1.23% -1.03% 4.50% $200 5.26% 530 -8.93% -0.98%
Brisbane $352,500 9.27% -4.23% -1.79% -1.63% 5.18% $350 0.00% 11,566 -17.44% 1.85%
QLD Country $307,000 8.11% -10.23% -5.38% -1.78% 5.44% $320 3.23% 12,197 -20.44% 2.95%
Darwin $388,500 10.90% -8.01% -3.08% -0.67% 5.77% $430 -2.27% 781 -24.32% 4.81%
Northern Territory $382,500 11.06% -5.75% -2.79% 0.02% 5.87% $430 4.88% 985 -24.29% 4.10%
Hobart $273,500 10.26% -3.77% -3.80% -2.00% 5.15% $270 3.85% 613 -14.74% 6.42%
TAS Country $210,000 10.09% -6.68% -1.14% 1.36% 5.47% $220 10.00% 439 -22.30% 4.73%
Melbourne $445,000 7.80% -1.42% -1.62% -1.04% 4.28% $365 4.29% 29,709 -2.23% 2.91%
VIC Country $259,500 8.78% 3.51% -0.16% -0.66% 5.33% $265 15.22% 6,673 -8.40% 0.08%
Perth $383,000 9.70% -6.61% -3.09% -1.46% 5.04% $370 5.71% 5,262 -9.56% 1.35%
WA Country $302,000 7.15% -6.66% 2.33% 1.50% 5.53% $320 14.29% 474 -15.66% 2.45%
Sydney $483,000 5.31% 3.14% -0.14% -1.11% 4.86% $450 2.27% 40,554 -10.79% 3.16%
NSW Country $300,000 7.13% -1.23% 0.31% -0.07% 4.87% $280 3.70% 10,943 -10.75% 2.16%
Australia $396,000 7.02% -0.86% -1.08% -0.67% 4.74% $360 1.41% 128,191 -10.02% 2.82%
Latest posts by __ADAM__ (see all)

Comments

  1. Soft? Next time I reverse down the driveway I’m going to ask my son,
    “what am I doing right now?”

    “Going backwards dad”

    “No son I’m softening” πŸ˜‰

    • HAHAHA! Now that one made me laugh. It is sooo true. I sort of play a game of Real Estate speak bingo now. How many ways can you say steady price decline without actually saying prices are dropping and have been for a while now…

      • Top end houses, even if their prices crash, are still most likely to stay in the top half of the price range so they do not affect the median. They lower the mean value though but it’s not reported. Having just one parameter does not characterise very well a probabilistic distribution unless it’s a parametric distribution that can be determined by this parameter. This does not happen too often in real life. Even the normal (gaussian) distribution that provides a reasonable fit to empirical distributions that characterise many real life population requires mean and standard deviation to be uniquely determined.

    • Reality is a bitch !

      But at least they are adjusting their dodgy models downwards to meet that reality, even if it is a very slow revision.

      The fact that Residex has lowered its predictions so much speaks louder than the data IMHO

  2. Can speak for prices, but there are plenty of sales going on in Perth lately, The stock level on reiwa dropped 400 between Monday and today when I checked. The areas I search are full of under offer comments. Hearing similar from RE people I know also. Where is the flood of spring homes that are supposed to come?
    Hurry up and burst you bubble! We don’t want blind hope returning to the RE market.

    • Aiming for ZIRP without looking totally illegitimate perhaps?

      But yes – just more proof that the CPI is more of a tool manipulated and used to push whatever agenda rather than an actual measure to base actions off.

    • I see it’s for new houses which means construction materials and builders wages. Overall it will plush CPI up IMO.

    • It is the same subgroup index though – excluding land, and including newly constructed dwellings at a weight reflecting this.

      In generally the CPI is still hugely underweight in housing and theoretically inconsistent (compared with, say, the German CPI). The ACLIs (the cost of living indexes) have a slight improvements, but as we know, there is a massive data gap in housing mortgage between 1998-2003.

      So the construction index will only fall if building costs fall – lower wages and materials costs. I don’t see that happening to a huge extent just yet, and depending on the government reaction to deleveraging, I’m not sure what sort of impact this will have.

      My verdict – the weights are better, but they side-stepped the main game of accounting for proper weighting to housing costs and conducting an estimation of owner-occupied rents (which is not such a challenging calculation with the huge property data flows these days).

  3. Residex Sydney Median Unit prices:
    Aug ’10: 473,500
    Aug ’11: 483,000 = $9,500 increase = 2.008% growth YoY

    Yet their report claims 3.14% growth since Aug ’10???

    Residex Sydney Median House prices:
    Aug ’10: 668,000
    Aug ’11: 675,000 = $7,000 increase = 1.04% YoY

    Yet they’re claiming 2.53%

    Am I being particularly stupid this morning and missing something obvious?

  4. my suburb is seeing 4 new listings a week with approx 40 houses on the market, however the average house price sold has risen, becasue in the last month one house has sold for $605,000.

    Date Median House Price
    Sep-10 $545,000
    Oct-10 $547,000
    Nov-10 $427,500 –
    Dec-10 $458,750 –
    Jan-11 $555,000 –
    Feb-11 $420,000 –
    Mar-11 $480,000
    Apr-11 $470,000 –
    May-11 $555,000 –
    Jun-11 $542,000
    Jul-11 – – ( No reported sales)
    Aug-11 $605,000

    We have had 11% increase on the median house price, although volume of sales is way down.