Conference Board: China slowing significantly (not)

From Bloomberg:

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) — Growth in China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is slowing “significantly,” according to The Conference Board, a New York-based research organization.

“The economy is significantly moderating right now and also over the next couple of months,” Bart van Ark, the organization’s chief economist, told Bloomberg Television from New York ahead of the release of the organization’s leading indicator for China. “We still expect it to be pretty much a soft landing.”

The data is due at 10 a.m. Beijing time today. China’s economy is cooling after the government raised interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements and extended curbs on the real-estate market, adding to concerns about the outlook for the global economy.

Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, today urged developed countries to support economic growth even as they make fiscal cuts. China’s growth may slow to 9.2 percent in the third quarter from 9.5 percent in the previous three months, the China Securities Journal reported today, citing the State Information Center.

A slowdown in Hong Kong has highlighted the threat of another global slump as weakness in the U.S. economy and a debt crisis in Europe cap demand for exports. The city last week reported that gross domestic product contracted in the second quarter from the previous three months.

“For the advanced economies, there is an unmistakable need to restore fiscal sustainability through credible consolidation plans,” Lagarde wrote in the Financial Times. “At the same time we know that slamming on the brakes too quickly will hurt the recovery and worsen job prospects.”

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. “Pretty much a soft landing”. Is that like almost a soft landing? Only some of the passengers died?

    • Sounds like more tightening in store then Fanboy.

      I’m with Zarathustra…

      the big plane of the Chinese economy has not even come close to the ground.

      They have a lot more tightening to do before they crash land this baby.

      Monetary policy: Doesn’t work, until it does. With a thud.

      • We’ll just have to wait and see. Hopefully a soft landing only and hopefully a few more years yet.

        Think of the benefit to the nation.

  2. Quite clever PR on their part – get a negative China economic story out there, picked up by Bloomberg, well aware there is appetite for China trouble scenarios – and whammo, the results – not too bad at all.

    China is attempting to slow growth and is mildly succeeding. Outlook +1 positive.

  3. Different China Fanboy

    “Growth in China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is slowing “significantly,…”

    and then

    “China’s growth may slow to 9.2 percent in the third quarter from 9.5 percent in the previous three months…”

    so a slowing from 9.5% to 9.2% is significant???

    I mean, … fair dinkum!!!