Trading the Guv’

Westpac offers a neat little observation this morning:

  • The RBA Governor will today deliver a speech to the Anika Foundation  on ‘Issues in Economic Policy’. Recall in 2009 that it was this platform  that was used to shift the Bank’s stance away from an easing bias.
  • Over the past 18 months, the Governor has made 15 speeches with the market selling-off on only 5 of these occasions. The sell-offs, however, have been significantly larger in magnitude, suggesting that the risk rewards are still skewed towards intra-day shorts, especially  given the low level of yields and the easing bias already priced in.
Question is, which way will he go?