Global energy amusement

On the day that OPEC trashed Ben Bernanke’s greatest hope of a bounce in the US economy, we offer the following global energy roundup from BP, chock full of interesting detail on production and consumption of oil, gas and coal. Makes for hours of scary reading! (h/t Zero Hedge)

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    • BTW, Scribd imbedded documents are sluggish to navigate.

      Blame Steve Jobs. Scribd used to use Flash, but Jobs banned Flash on iPhone/iPod, so Scribd and others have been forced to develop “HTML5” alternatives.

    • But the report clearly illustrates the enormous rise in energy consumption as the developing world grows. China’s relative increase is extraordinary. Much energy consumption is clearly unsustainable long term at equivalent levels, let alone increased levels.

      Still, we really do have several decades to develop alternative energy sources and renewables (hopefully Senor Rossi’s explorations will come to fruition). It will happen, but reports like these are definitely timely reminders that much (but by no means all) of our energy is finite. I’m confident of solutions being found.

      Short term – somewhat cynically, I wouldn’t want to be Iran and is Qatar on good terms with the US?

  1. Great data, shame about the report.

    Take the difference between oil production and oil consumption.

    Oil production = conventional oil + shale oil + natural gas liquids

    Oil consumption = conventional oil + shale oil + natural gas liquids + biofuels

    This lets them say oil production is stalled (at 82mbd) but oil consumption has continued to grow (to 87.5mbd with biofuels)… so nothing to worry about, right?

    And then in the 2030 outlook, oil production increases another 541 million tonnes/year (10.8mbd) but 473 million tonnes/year (9.5mbd) is supposed to come from the Middle East.

    Then you look at Middle East oil production, and it has essentially stalled at 25mbd since 2005, at a time when high oil prices have crippled the world economy. Ok yes, Iraq might come to the rescue with an additional 8.5mbd, but is that going to help as the rest of the Middle East enters the phase of declining production? Or should we continue to believe that unlike the rest of the world, Middle East reserves never decrease with production? (have a look at their reserve figures supplied by BP… they only make step changes upwards!)

    At the same time it is placing considerable faith in unconventional oil to replace conventional oil. From the IEA’s latest report, you can see that 70% of conventional oil production will need to be replaced in the next 30 years. This is to be done by NGL’s, deepwater oil, oil fields yet to be developed and ‘oil yet to be found’. I prefer to call it ‘oil that doesn’t exist’ but I suppose technically they are the same.

    To then expect unconventional oil production to increase a further 15% on top of this is a tad optimistic.

  2. And look at Chinas coal production!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    You would think that as China already produces half the worlds coal, if China hits peak coal production then the world will hit peak coal production.

    Also interesting that despite producing 14Gt of coal since 2006, their coal reserves have remained unchanged at 114.5Gt (got that from EIA survey ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’ 2006)