ABARES says no “dining boom”

Advertisement

From ABARES:

1

Outlook for Australian agricultural and fisheries exports

Total volume of farm production is forecast to rise by 2.8 per cent in 2016–17, following an estimated 2.3 per cent decrease in 2015–16. The forecast rise in 2016–17 reflects increased crop production.

The index of unit returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to decrease by 2.7 per cent in 2016–17, following an estimated 5.3 per cent increase in 2015–16. Declines in export prices in Australian dollar terms are forecast in 2016–17 for wheat, barley, dairy products and chickpeas. These will more than offset the expected increases in export prices for wool, sugar, wine, cotton, lamb, canola, live feeder/ slaughter cattle and mutton.

Earnings from farm exports in 2016–17 are forecast to fall to $44.0 billion, following an estimated 1.3 per cent increase in 2015–16 to $44.5 billion.

Crops

Export earnings for crops are forecast to rise to around $22.9 billion in 2016–17, from an estimated $22.6 billion in 2015–16. Strong rises in export earnings in 2016–17 are forecast for sugar (up 21 per cent), cotton (up 40 per cent) and canola (up 43 per cent). These increases are expected to be partially offset by decreased export earnings for chickpeas (down 32 per cent). However, export earnings for wheat and coarse grains are expected to remain largely unchanged.

Livestock

Export earnings for livestock and livestock products are forecast to fall to $21.0 billion in 2016–17, from an estimated $21.9 billion in 2015–16. This forecast fall is mostly driven by expected lower Australian supplies of beef and weaker beef import demand from some markets. Export earnings in 2016–17 are forecast to fall for beef and veal (down 12 per cent), dairy (down 1 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (down 4 per cent) and mutton (down 17 per cent). These decreases are partially offset by forecast increases in export earnings for wool (up 6 per cent) and lamb (up 3 per cent).

Fisheries

Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to rise to $1.7 billion in 2016–17, from an estimated $1.5 billion in 2015–16. Export earnings in 2016–17 are forecast to rise for rock lobster (up 15 per cent) as a result of strengthening demand from China. Export earnings for salmonids are forecast to rise by 10 per cent as prices respond to reduced world supplies. Export earnings for tuna are forecast to fall in 2016–17 (down 3 per cent) as a result of weaker demand from Japan.

2

Zero growth in rural exports in three years:

zcvfad
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.