From Forexlive:
- For Q2 2016, Goldman Sachs has hiked their price forecast by 47% to $55 / metric ton
- Q3 2016 forecast up 20% to $45
- Q4 2016 +14% to to $40
- Full year estimate is 19% higher to $47 a ton
- 2017 & 2018 forecasts have been left unchanged at $35
That means a 2016/17 Budget average of $38.75CFR. Subtract $5 for freight to get FOB and you find that GS has just rocketed its iron ore price forecasts to -40% below that of the Budget.
These are almost identical to my forecasts now so they represent -$8 billion in Budget revenue gone and roughly -1.5% of nominal GDP for this Budget year and much worse in outer years.
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Yes, that’s how bad Turnbull’s Treasury is.